What was Thompson thinking?

[Bretsky]

Didn't we also get a high 2nd as part of that deal ?

No, the deal that Cleveland offered Thompson (and other teams) was "2008 first round picks and swap 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks in 2007." That was a lowball offer and would have been a mistake for any of those teams (including ours to make).

The deal that Cleveland ended up giving Dallas was 2007 Round 2 and 2008 Round 1. They had to sweeten the deal for Dallas as Kansas City was picking at 23, one behind Dallas, and the Chiefs had made it public that if Quinn were available they would take him. So the Browns either had to make an offer that was sweet enough for the Cowboys to take, or not get Quinn. They were under no similar compunction not to lowball Green Bay, since if Green Bay didn't take their offer they still had the opportunity to work out a deal with Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati, Tennessee, the Giants, or the Cowboys. So Cleveland ended up lowballing all the teams before Dallas, hoping they'd bite on the promise of a "very high pick in 2008", to get a deal which was in their favor. None of those teams (not just ours) took the bait.

In his 2007 post draft press conference Thompson specifically said that he didn't want to take the Cleveland deal since it would have resulted in a net loss in number of picks in 2007.

Gosh it seems like Dallas and New England are often the teams to screw others in draft day deals

[RashanGary]

I remember when Thompson made that non move. Afterward he said some guys in his group wanted that deal, but he ddin't know how to weigh next years picks. He had no feel for value. It seems liek he feels comfortable to mvoe back if he knows what he can get when he moves back but he wasn't comfortable making a move he didn't have a feel for.


At the time, I wasn't disappointed horribly in the decision, but I was disappointed in the answer "that he didn't know how to weight it".



This year he came out and traded a 7th for a 6th next year and said he wanted to do it a couple more times. I think he learned from his uncertainty in time of pressure and came up with a way to approach next years picks. I think if the question were asked at another conference the decision might be the same, but this time I think he'll have a better answer like "We had offers, but we didn't feel they were good for the Packers" not just "I didn't want to give up something this year, but didn't know how to evaluate next year so I took the guy I wanted". I was looking forward to see how he would deal with those type of situations going forward and I think he's gotten better. He's willing to deal in the unknown of future picks now where before he didn't know how to approach it.

[RashanGary]

The way the value chart works out, a 7th this year is worth a 6th next year. A 6th is worth a 5th and so on.

I think a good way to approach the draft would be to take those opportunities when they arise and then when a deep draft comes keep all of your picks. Obviously, you don't trade picks when you really like what is there, you consider trade backs and trade ups as well, but you do consider the this year for next year picks as well and I do think they will present themselves often because the nature of the draft promotes desperation and in desperate situations, people will give up more later to get something now.

Example of how this would work:

This year:
We traded a 7th or a 6th.

Next year:
We trade a 7th for 6th
We trade two 6ths for a 4th

Following year
We trade a 4th for a 3rd
We trade two 6ths for a 4th
We trade a 7th for a 6th

Following year This is a blockbuster draft, LOADED with players.
We now have:
1st
2nd
2 - 3rds
2 - 4ths
5th
2 - 6ths
7th

So we start the draft with 10 picks instead of 7 and that is before comp picks.

[HarveyWallbangers]

This year he came out and traded a 7th for a 6th next year and said he wanted to do it a couple more times. I think he learned from his uncertainty in time of pressure and came up with a way to approach next years picks.

Not really. It's pretty common knowledge that GMs consider a pick in a certain round is worth a pick the following year that's one round higher. The fact that he made that trade this year has absolutely nothing to do with the Harrell trade offer. I'm 100% certain he was aware of that.

It's completely different when the pick is for the same round the following year--especially a 1st round pick. You just can't take that risk.

[RashanGary]

He did say he didn't know how to evaluate the situation, harv. Do you think he really knew it was a bad call and just lied about not knowing? Seems like an odd lie to me.


Ever since he gave that answer, I took it for what he said it was. I didn't really want to just make something up that worked for me. I was OK with the pick because of what was allegedly offered, but I was a little concerned aobut him not knowing how to deal with next years picks. I'm looking forward to him dealing more in those types of opportunities because I think they come up enough to get an edge and I thought it bothered him at the time that he didn't now how do deal with it. I'm not used to that type of answer from Thompson and I'm glad to see him now dealing in what he considered last year "unknown"

[HarveyWallbangers]

#1) I've never seen him quoted saying that. I'd like to see that quote.
#2) That had no bearing on his trade this year.

[Lurker64]

I remember when Thompson made that non move. Afterward he said some guys in his group wanted that deal, but he ddin't know how to weigh next years picks. He had no feel for value. It seems liek he feels comfortable to mvoe back if he knows what he can get when he moves back but he wasn't comfortable making a move he didn't have a feel for.

I'm pretty sure he meant "I didn't know how to weigh next year's picks" in more of a sense of "I was conflicted about it and didn't have a good sense on whether or not it was a good deal" than "I'm incompetent and I've never thought about it before." I'm sure he's thought about it before, but everybody finds themselves in situations where they're faced with alternatives and the proper choice is ambiguous, even if you've thought about it before.

I'm pretty sure that Thompson was correct in not taking the Cleveland deal since it would have been a mistake (which was the cause of his uncertainty), and not because he had never considered trading for next year's picks before.

I mean, after all, with the deal offered, he wouldn't have had another pick until #36 which was 20 picks lower. I would hesitate about trading down 20 spots at the top of the draft, wouldn't you? I imagine most GMs of teams that are not yet playoff teams would.

[Chubbyhubby]

Did you hear the Ryan Grant is still not signed!

[RashanGary]

“I’ve never really been able to figure that one out. Quite frankly, I’m fairly certain I’ve never been involved in a draft day trade either giving or receiving next years picks. We had calls today wanting to know if we wanted next years 6ths for one of our 6ths. I know how to value that years particular draft picks with how the board is set up. It would be great to pick up other picks for the following year, but what do you give up?”

This is the quote from Thompson. It sounds to me like he's never been able to wrap his arms around trading this years picks for next years picks and that he's never been involved in one either way.

What struck me at the time about this was that he didn't knwo how to evaluate it and that he's never done it becuase of that. I liked the pick of Harrell, I just didn't like his reasoning for not dealing with next years picks. I suppose if you want to believe he knew how to evaluate next years picks and was just lying that you can make that arguement, but I guess I've never heard him lie before so I just take things at face value with Thompson. And even if you think he was just lying, I think it's hard to find a motive for lying here. He sounded unprepared. Why make yourself look that way if you don't have to?

I think he learned and is more willing and it's nice to see he made hsi first such trade and was acctually trying to make more. I'm happy to listen to other arguements for what was going through Thompsons head, but I'm pretty sur eI'm going to take his word before yours, Harv. The evidence is pretty clear.

[Packgator]

Re: What was Thompson thinking?

Josh Sitton - A Ted Thompson special. He's sick of moving down. He loves his small school kids.

Sitton isn't a small school kid. UCF ranks 6th amoung D1 football schools with an enrollment over 48,000.

1. Ohio State University
2. University of Florida
3. Arizona State University
4. University of Minnesota
5. University of Texas
6. University of Central Florida
7. Texas A&M University
8. Michigan State University
9. Pennsylvania State University
10. University of Wisconsin

[RashanGary]

If there is one thing I'm reliable with, it's what Ted Thompson has said. I might not know everythign he stands for, but I do know what he says he stands for and I know when someone is misquoting him or misphrasing him and I don't do it myself.

The whole Jordy thing was in jest to have fun with Thompsons "googly eyes" when he talks about him, but when I say Thompson said something, it's because he said it or damn close. I'm not Bob McGinn. And even my saying Thompson is in love with Jordy Nelson mgiht not be patently from Thompsons mouth, I did watch his body language and listen to his tone and even my thread that was an exaggeration and clear joke was more accurate (in that Thompson really is in love with Nelson) than half of what is written by McGinn and tried to be passed off as journelism.

[HarveyWallbangers]

If there is one thing I'm reliable with, it's what Ted Thompson has said. I might not know everythign he stands for, but I know what he says he stands for and I know when someone is misquoting him or misphrasing him.

So, he hasn't ever made a trade in Seattle or Green Bay for a future pick. It's common, and it pretty sure he's aware of the consensus that if you trade, for example, a 7th round pick in 2008, you should get a 6th round pick in 2009.

Where's the link to this quote? Sometimes he kind of rambles on, and I like to see the quote in the context of his interview. It would seem kind of silly that people would offer him a 6th in the next year's draft for a 6th in that year's draft.

[RashanGary]

go to packers.com/draft/2007/av

It's toward the end of the 2nd day press conference. It's word for word and in the exact context that I quoted.

[RashanGary]

It would seem kind of silly that people would offer him a 6th in the next year's draft for a 6th in that year's draft.

I thought that was stupid too, esspecially considering the Packers had a mid 6th rounder. Why would the Packers even consider that. I think it was probably more the traditional this years 7 for next years 6 but he mispoke. Even still, that was the quote and the general message was still pretty clear. He's never done it and dint' really know how to value it.

He went from never doing it, then he had a big time situation come up where he could have done it, then he said he didn't know how to weigh it, then the following year he did it once and tried to do it multiple times. I think it's natural to learn from a situation that you were unprepared for the year before and I think the circumstances here shows that happened.

[woodbuck27]

I feel overall that this was a strange and unfocused draft for us and that TT reached a couple of times and drafted where we didn'y have need. 2X WR and QB?

How did you feel about his reaches for Greg Jennings and James Jones?

Harvey:

Really the way TT's sets it up. Nothing's a reach on his board.

I liked the Greg Jennings pick Harvey.

James Jones was a pick I've never felt either way about, as far as. Will he succeed or not. Just another prospect that had to make the team, and we hope that's the case in Green Bay.