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On coaches and defense: Favre has played for one of the ten worst coaches for holdng a late lead, but it wasn't Sherman. And several of the top comeback QBs in the list have played for coaches that are very good at holding a late lead (Brady-Belicheck, Bledsoe/Testaverde-Parcells, Dungy-Manning, Collins-Fassel, Bulger-Martz, Plummer-Shanahan, etc.) However, this doesn't explain everything as Plummer, for instance, had most of his comebacks during his days as a Cardinal playing for Tobin.
from the article...With a test in place for ranking performance, we can then implement another test, an analysis of variance, to help determine responsibility for comebacks and holding leads. An analysis of variance can break down the components of variation between and within groups and help determine which factors (if any) are important. In this study all possible two-way combinations of quarterbacks and coaches were examined. All quarterbacks who have been in a comeback or lead-holding situation under more than one head coach comprised one group. All coaches that have had multiple quarterbacks in comeback or lead-holding situations comprised the other group. Analyses of variance were run on each group, examining comeback ability and the ability to maintain leads, using modified t-test results as the dependent variables.
The general picture from these analyses of variance is that quarterbacks are more important than coaches in coming from behind to win, and coaches are more important than quarterbacks in holding leads. For example, the results indicate that Tom Brady should maintain a similar ability to bring his team from behind to win regardless of whether or not his coach is Bill Belichick. Furthermore, Bill Belichick should maintain a similar ability to hold on to a one-score, fourth-quarter lead whether or not his quarterback is Tom Brady.
These results make intuitive sense. A team that is trailing needs to be able to move the ball and score. Calling the right plays in this situation is certainly important, but execution by the quarterback and his surrounding cast is paramount. Meanwhile, a team that leads by a small margin will require a defensive stop, followed by utilization of a clock-killing offensive strategy usually predicated on the running game. This largely negates the quarterback’s role.
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Turning our attention to head coaches, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have been won by coaches who rank among the 10 best at holding a one-score, fourth-quarter lead (Table 3). Nine of the top 10 have either been to a Super Bowl or coached in multiple championship games, with the exception being Jim Haslett. Of course, Haslett spent his entire head coaching career with the Saints; he’s good, but he’s not a miracle worker. Interestingly, three of these coaches have been relegated to subordinate jobs: joining Haslett are Jim Fassel and media whipping boy Mike Martz. Readers of Pro Football Prospectus 2005 will not be surprised to see Martz ranked so highly, although Bob Ryan and Michael Wilbon may feel that his inclusion in the top five invalidates the entire study.
Table 3. Top 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
1 Tony Dungy........51 14
2 Dennis Green......48 13
3 Bill Belichick........32 5
4 Bill Parcells.........40 13
5 Mike Martz..........27 5
6 Jim Fassel..........35 11
7 Mike Shanahan...47 18
8 Jim Haslett.........28 8
9 Bill Cowher.........44 17
10 Brian Billick.......27 8
The worst coaches at holding a one-score, fourth-quarter lead include Marty Schottenheimer and Mike Holmgren (Table 4). Both coaches are long-tenured and boast career records that are more than 50 games over .500. Holmgren has won a Super Bowl and coached in two others. Schottenheimer’s postseason record is horrific, but his teams generally perform very well in the regular season. (He’s the Flip Saunders of football!) Yet they both consistently field teams that get beaten in the fourth quarter more often than they should. George Seifert’s appearance in the bottom 10 might come as a surprise as well. This study includes his time with Carolina, and just one of his glory years with the 49ers.
Table 4. Bottom 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
67 Dom Capers..............25 14
68 Ted Marchibroda........14 10
69 Mike Holmgren..........44 22
70 Jim Mora, Sr..............19 12
71 Butch Davis...............15 11
72 Marty Schottenheimer.33 18
73 Dave Campo...............7 11
74 George Seifert............11 12
75 Dennis Erickson..........15 13
76 Mike Riley...................9 13
from the article...With a test in place for ranking performance, we can then implement another test, an analysis of variance, to help determine responsibility for comebacks and holding leads. An analysis of variance can break down the components of variation between and within groups and help determine which factors (if any) are important. In this study all possible two-way combinations of quarterbacks and coaches were examined. All quarterbacks who have been in a comeback or lead-holding situation under more than one head coach comprised one group. All coaches that have had multiple quarterbacks in comeback or lead-holding situations comprised the other group. Analyses of variance were run on each group, examining comeback ability and the ability to maintain leads, using modified t-test results as the dependent variables.
The general picture from these analyses of variance is that quarterbacks are more important than coaches in coming from behind to win, and coaches are more important than quarterbacks in holding leads. For example, the results indicate that Tom Brady should maintain a similar ability to bring his team from behind to win regardless of whether or not his coach is Bill Belichick. Furthermore, Bill Belichick should maintain a similar ability to hold on to a one-score, fourth-quarter lead whether or not his quarterback is Tom Brady.
These results make intuitive sense. A team that is trailing needs to be able to move the ball and score. Calling the right plays in this situation is certainly important, but execution by the quarterback and his surrounding cast is paramount. Meanwhile, a team that leads by a small margin will require a defensive stop, followed by utilization of a clock-killing offensive strategy usually predicated on the running game. This largely negates the quarterback’s role.
...
Turning our attention to head coaches, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have been won by coaches who rank among the 10 best at holding a one-score, fourth-quarter lead (Table 3). Nine of the top 10 have either been to a Super Bowl or coached in multiple championship games, with the exception being Jim Haslett. Of course, Haslett spent his entire head coaching career with the Saints; he’s good, but he’s not a miracle worker. Interestingly, three of these coaches have been relegated to subordinate jobs: joining Haslett are Jim Fassel and media whipping boy Mike Martz. Readers of Pro Football Prospectus 2005 will not be surprised to see Martz ranked so highly, although Bob Ryan and Michael Wilbon may feel that his inclusion in the top five invalidates the entire study.
Table 3. Top 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
1 Tony Dungy........51 14
2 Dennis Green......48 13
3 Bill Belichick........32 5
4 Bill Parcells.........40 13
5 Mike Martz..........27 5
6 Jim Fassel..........35 11
7 Mike Shanahan...47 18
8 Jim Haslett.........28 8
9 Bill Cowher.........44 17
10 Brian Billick.......27 8
The worst coaches at holding a one-score, fourth-quarter lead include Marty Schottenheimer and Mike Holmgren (Table 4). Both coaches are long-tenured and boast career records that are more than 50 games over .500. Holmgren has won a Super Bowl and coached in two others. Schottenheimer’s postseason record is horrific, but his teams generally perform very well in the regular season. (He’s the Flip Saunders of football!) Yet they both consistently field teams that get beaten in the fourth quarter more often than they should. George Seifert’s appearance in the bottom 10 might come as a surprise as well. This study includes his time with Carolina, and just one of his glory years with the 49ers.
Table 4. Bottom 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
67 Dom Capers..............25 14
68 Ted Marchibroda........14 10
69 Mike Holmgren..........44 22
70 Jim Mora, Sr..............19 12
71 Butch Davis...............15 11
72 Marty Schottenheimer.33 18
73 Dave Campo...............7 11
74 George Seifert............11 12
75 Dennis Erickson..........15 13
76 Mike Riley...................9 13
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