The slim chance remaining (playoffs)

[Patler]

Pretty clear that the Packers have to win out for any realistic chance at getting into the playoffs. Doing that automatically disposes of the Bears, because the best the Bears could be would be 9-7 and at 9-7 the Packers would have the tie breaker advantage in either a two-way or a three-way tie.

So it comes down to the Vikings. Again, in a tie with the Vikings, if the Packers go 4-0 to finish 9-7 the Packers will win the tie breaker in either a two-way or a three-way tie. Of course to get there, the Vikings need to lose two of their four remaining games to finish at 9-7. The Vikings games

at Detroit
at Arizona
Atlanta
NY Giants

In an 8-8 two-way tie with the Vikings or three-way tie with the Bears and Vikings, the Packers have to beat the Lions and the Bears to win a tie breaker based on record within the division. If they don't, and the head to head records and records within the division are equal, The Packers can not win the tie breaker for best record among common opponents. The Vikings are already 4-3 in common games, and the best the Packers can be is 3-5. It gets more complicated with an 8-8 tie with only the Bears.

In summary, the Packers opportunities geared to Viking losses are as follows:

If the Vikings lose none or one, obviously the season is over.

If the Vikings lose two, the Packers will be North Division champs if they win all four remaining games.

If the Vikings lose three, the Packers will be NFC North Division champs if they win all four, or if they the beat the Bears and Lions and one other team while the Bears also lose at least one other game in addition to the the Packer game.

If the Vikings lose all four remaining games, The packers will be NFC North champs if:
-they win all four remaining games
-they beat the Bears and Lions and one other team, while the Bears lose one of their other three games
-they beat only the Bears and Lions and the Bears lose two of their other three games.
-The Packers win any three and the Bears lose all four.

There are some wild scenarios if the Vikings were to lose all four, finishing at 7-9 in which the Packers could win the Division in a tie with the Bears at 8-8 even if the Packers were to lose to the Bears or Lions, but it would then get down to which specific games are won or lost, strength of wins, etc.

[hoosier]

Re: The slim chance remaining (playoffs)

So it comes down to the Vikings. Again, in a tie with the Vikings, if the Packers go 4-0 to finish 9-7 the Packers will win the tie breaker in either a two-way or a three-way tie. Of course to get there, the Vikings need to lose two of their four remaining games to finish at 9-7. The Vikings games

at Detroit
at Arizona
Atlanta
NY Giants

The Vikings are probably going to be getting AZ and NYG at the right time of year (for them): Arizona will have lost two of last three and the Giants may well have clinched HFA by the time the Vikings get them. Assuming the Vikings win at least one of those two games, they would have to lose at home to Atlanta for the Packers to have any chance. If the Vikings beat the Falcons and Arizona or NYG, I think they deserve to make the playoffs more than the Packers.

[sheepshead]

Maybe a little better than slim....maybe not

[Patler]

Re: The slim chance remaining (playoffs)

The Vikings are probably going to be getting AZ and NYG at the right time of year (for them): Arizona will have lost two of last three and the Giants may well have clinched HFA by the time the Vikings get them. Assuming the Vikings win at least one of those two games, they would have to lose at home to Atlanta for the Packers to have any chance. If the Vikings beat the Falcons and Arizona or NYG, I think they deserve to make the playoffs more than the Packers.

It will kind of suck if the Packers were to finish 4-0 (dreaming, I know) and lose the division only because the Vikings beat a Giants team playing mostly backups. But, if that happens they have no one to blame but themselves.

However, I will agree that even if the Packers go 4-0 I would hesitate to say they deserve to be in the playoffs, regardless. I'm not sure either the Packers or Bears will deserve it no matter what happens the rest of the season. The Vikings still have an opportunity to show themselves to be somewhat worthy of a playoff spot.

[Patler]

Maybe a little better than slim....maybe not

Since any realistic chance begins with the Packers winning all four remaining games I'm leaning toward "very slim".

[sheepshead]

good point

[Rastak]

This is a cool website I picked up from this forum last year.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

[sheepshead]

Ouch

[sheepshead]

Geez were one game better then the niners who fired their HC.

[channtheman]

The whole idea of the Packers actually winning 4 games straight (regardless of opponent) is just laughable to me at this point. I would love for them to do that and win the division, but I just don't see this team stringing together 4 good games in a row.

[Harlan Huckleby]

[KYPack]

This is a cool website I picked up from this forum last year.


http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

That is a cool site.

Tells us what we knew.

We no shot at a card and need to win out and have a "perfect storm" to win the division.

We all about knew that, but that site puts it in black and white for ya.

[LL2]

This season has been a disapointment. I was not expecting a SB appearance, but at least 10-6. I do not want to see a losing season. I will be a long offseason where we can expect the same from TT. TT has made a lot of good moves, but for once I would like to see TT become agressive for once. This team is not that far from being a championship team and that is the frustrating part. They should be the best team in the NFC north, but they can't play like one.

[Guiness]

For whatever it's worth, I think we have a decent shot at the playoffs as a divisional winner.

8-8 could well win our division this season. If we are 3-1, with one of those wins being over the Bears, we could well be in.

The Vikings are due (sorry Rastak, but it's true) for their late season collapse. This will be aided in no small part by a suspension to the Williams's. If those two are out for a couple of games, they're going to have a tough time. 1-3 would not be out of the question. I don't buy into the thinking that just because they've done it before, it will happen again...but I do believe that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it!

The Bears - I just don't see anything there.

Getting this young team back to the playoffs goes a long ways towards maintaining a winning tradition. Building a climate where it is expected, not desired.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Tommorrow will be a big day in finding out if we stand a chance or not. If the Williams fatties are suspended the Packers certainly have a chance. We have a Texans team who is horrible on the road and also coming off a short week. We'll get a Jags team @ home(where they sport a losing record) who has more problems right now than the Packers. The toughest game left is the Bears, which could go either way. If by the point the packers are 3-0 I just couldnt see them losing @ home in the last game of the year to the Lions.

A lot of this hinges on whether or not the Williams boys are suspended for the Queens to lose 2 of their last 4.