Packers just got unlucky this year

[channtheman]

Not even factoring in the bad officiating that has plagued some of the Packers games, I'm watching this game where the Saints are playing the Bears and it's amazing how Brees goes from playing the best game ever against the Packers to looking like total crap against the Bears. I'm pretty sure that when we play the Jaguars Sunday that they won't fumble away the game in the first 2 minutes either. It's just been that type of year for the Pack, where they get everyone when they're hot. We played Houston just as they finally get Schaub back too. Wonderful. This leads me to believe that when you play someone is just as important as anything else, thoughts?

[texaspackerbacker]

Congratulations, Chann. You basically said what I've been saying in about a dozen posts.

Luck takes many forms. Injuries certainly ranks near the top of those. Close plays--near misses by us, close plays made by the opponents--that's another kind of luck. Bad calls by officials is another form--unless you get conspiratorial and say those officials are screwing you on purpose. If this was the NBA, I'd be making that claim, but not near as likely in the NFL.

A third major kind of bad luck is exactly what you discussed, Chann--when in the season you play a team. Last year, we caught and trounced the Giants early in the season. I'm sure there were other similar games. This year, not only New Orleans played way over their heads, but Carolina also rounded into shape against the Packers, then crushed Tampa--who I thought was the better team--the next week. And the Bucs were seemingly at their best when they played the Packers. The Cowboys looked super against the Packers, and have been stinking it up ever since--at least partly from Romo's injury. The Texans were worthless early on, but have been coming on lately also.

All the crap being spewed in this forum on various fronts is meaningless next to the PRIMARY FACTOR in this rotten season--LUCK!

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I disagree. You have to face the facts and just realize that this team has lost those close games because we have too many weaknesses on the d-line. We need a better d-line and o-line before we'll ever be considered really contenders. The o-line may already have the players on the roster and just need to gel, but the d-line is horrible.

I'm not saying the team is bad, but we need some impact players on the d-line before we go anywhere. Hopefully TT realizes that this team is close and goes for a bid catch in free agency. This team has a lot of pieces in place for a championship run, but plain drafting and waiting for players to develop will not cut it anymore. With a good draft and a stud addition to the d-line in free agency and we could be on to something next year.

[HarveyWallbangers]

It's a combination. The Packers have their weaknesses, but they certainly have better talent than 5-8. Whatever. It's the way it goes. I can't wait for next year.

[denverYooper]

Re: Packers just got unlucky this year

Not even factoring in the bad officiating that has plagued some of the Packers games, I'm watching this game where the Saints are playing the Bears and it's amazing how Brees goes from playing the best game ever against the Packers to looking like total crap against the Bears. I'm pretty sure that when we play the Jaguars Sunday that they won't fumble away the game in the first 2 minutes either. It's just been that type of year for the Pack, where they get everyone when they're hot. We played Houston just as they finally get Schaub back too. Wonderful. This leads me to believe that when you play someone is just as important as anything else, thoughts?

Good scheduling luck for the Bears to get a pass-heavy team like NO @Soldier field in December. We played 'em in the superdome.

[Bretsky]

Re: Packers just got unlucky this year

Not even factoring in the bad officiating that has plagued some of the Packers games, I'm watching this game where the Saints are playing the Bears and it's amazing how Brees goes from playing the best game ever against the Packers to looking like total crap against the Bears. I'm pretty sure that when we play the Jaguars Sunday that they won't fumble away the game in the first 2 minutes either. It's just been that type of year for the Pack, where they get everyone when they're hot. We played Houston just as they finally get Schaub back too. Wonderful. This leads me to believe that when you play someone is just as important as anything else, thoughts?

I've never bought into the luck theory. The idea that Brees had enough time in the pocket to smoke a pack of cigs and still look for an open receiver had more to do with GB's helplessness against that offense. Good teams make their breaks IMO. Whenever we needed them to step up our defense has pretty much sucked wind; that has more to do with our failures than luck

[Fred's Slacks]

Re: Packers just got unlucky this year

Not even factoring in the bad officiating that has plagued some of the Packers games, I'm watching this game where the Saints are playing the Bears and it's amazing how Brees goes from playing the best game ever against the Packers to looking like total crap against the Bears. I'm pretty sure that when we play the Jaguars Sunday that they won't fumble away the game in the first 2 minutes either. It's just been that type of year for the Pack, where they get everyone when they're hot. We played Houston just as they finally get Schaub back too. Wonderful. This leads me to believe that when you play someone is just as important as anything else, thoughts?

I've never bought into the luck theory. The idea that Brees had enough time in the pocket to smoke a pack of cigs and still look for an open receiver had more to do with GB's helplessness against that offense. Good teams make their breaks IMO. Whenever we needed them to step up our defense has pretty much sucked wind; that has more to do with our failures than luck

I was thinking the same thing as I watched this game. The difference between stopping them consistently and getting trounced on every drive is pressure. In the 3 or 4 plays where we actually got some pressure on Brees, it was a positive defensive play (one was almost picked). Other than those plays, it was wide open all day. The Bears are able to force Brees to avoid the rush making him much less effective. We've had bad luck this season but there is no getting around our lack of pass rush right now. When healthy, we are better than 5-8 but with the state our D is in 5-8 is about right.

[Guiness]

Congratulations, Chann. You basically said what I've been saying in about a dozen posts.

Luck takes many forms. Injuries certainly ranks near the top of those. Close plays--near misses by us, close plays made by the opponents--that's another kind of luck. Bad calls by officials is another form--unless you get conspiratorial and say those officials are screwing you on purpose. If this was the NBA, I'd be making that claim, but not near as likely in the NFL.

A third major kind of bad luck is exactly what you discussed, Chann--when in the season you play a team. Last year, we caught and trounced the Giants early in the season. I'm sure there were other similar games. This year, not only New Orleans played way over their heads, but Carolina also rounded into shape against the Packers, then crushed Tampa--who I thought was the better team--the next week. And the Bucs were seemingly at their best when they played the Packers. The Cowboys looked super against the Packers, and have been stinking it up ever since--at least partly from Romo's injury. The Texans were worthless early on, but have been coming on lately also.

All the crap being spewed in this forum on various fronts is meaningless next to the PRIMARY FACTOR in this rotten season--LUCK!

Can't say I disagree, but can't say I agree either tex.

Yes, the luck's been bad at times, but that sort of stuff evens out over a season. There have been a couple of time when I've gone 'that was shitty!' (Steve Smith's catch to cap the Carolina game comes to mind) but good teams overcome that sort of thing. And don't put themselves in a position where one play can blow everything up.

When teams consistently look like world beaters against us, you have to face the fact that the reason could be that we make them look that way.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Yea there is never luck envolved at all . I suppose Chicago getting a favorable pass interference call to win the game isn't in the least bit lucky.

[Bretsky]

Yea there is never luck envolved at all . I suppose Chicago getting a favorable pass interference call to win the game isn't in the least bit lucky.

Ya, not like the red didn't screw the Bears five minutes earlier by ignoring the obvious pass interference call against Olsen in the end zone

[channtheman]

Yea there is never luck envolved at all . I suppose Chicago getting a favorable pass interference call to win the game isn't in the least bit lucky.

Ya, not like the red didn't screw the Bears five minutes earlier by ignoring the obvious pass interference call against Olsen in the end zone

He didn't call the obvious one in the end zone, true. I thought that should have been called. I can not believe that the refs called the 2nd one though as that was truly game changing. They basically gave the Bears the win on the second PI, which was a horrible call.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Yea there is never luck envolved at all . I suppose Chicago getting a favorable pass interference call to win the game isn't in the least bit lucky.

Ya, not like the red didn't screw the Bears five minutes earlier by ignoring the obvious pass interference call against Olsen in the end zone

Exactly.

[Bossman641]

Re: Packers just got unlucky this year

Not even factoring in the bad officiating that has plagued some of the Packers games, I'm watching this game where the Saints are playing the Bears and it's amazing how Brees goes from playing the best game ever against the Packers to looking like total crap against the Bears. I'm pretty sure that when we play the Jaguars Sunday that they won't fumble away the game in the first 2 minutes either. It's just been that type of year for the Pack, where they get everyone when they're hot. We played Houston just as they finally get Schaub back too. Wonderful. This leads me to believe that when you play someone is just as important as anything else, thoughts?

I've never bought into the luck theory. The idea that Brees had enough time in the pocket to smoke a pack of cigs and still look for an open receiver had more to do with GB's helplessness against that offense. Good teams make their breaks IMO. Whenever we needed them to step up our defense has pretty much sucked wind; that has more to do with our failures than luck

I was thinking the same thing as I watched this game. The difference between stopping them consistently and getting trounced on every drive is pressure. In the 3 or 4 plays where we actually got some pressure on Brees, it was a positive defensive play (one was almost picked). Other than those plays, it was wide open all day. The Bears are able to force Brees to avoid the rush making him much less effective. We've had bad luck this season but there is no getting around our lack of pass rush right now. When healthy, we are better than 5-8 but with the state our D is in 5-8 is about right.

You have to understand that the Saints are a much team in the Superdome.

Home games - 24, 31, 27, 34, 37, 51, 29 = 33 points a game
Away games - 24, 32, 7, 20, 30, 20, 24 = 23 points a game

I can't agree that this season has been all bad luck, but I do think it has played a significant part.

This season has just been a perfect storm of injuries, bad luck, bad breaks, and poor play.

[KYPack]

This is the mirror season.

Last year we had 6 last minute-come from behind victories.

This season, we had six close ones and lost 'em all.

We weren't that good last year, & we ain't that bad this year.

With normal luck last year, we're 10-6.

This year? with average breaks, we should be a 8-8, 9-7 squad.

Next year, we are still a young team that knows you have to play 60 minutes and what it takes to win a close game.

& we'll get it done.

Cause we gotta get it done! (Old Lou Saban quote there)

[oregonpackfan]

There are many good points posted here: key injuries to defensive starters, not being able to win the close games, a couple of questionable officiating calls, etc.

Another factor has to be(and I don't mean to stir a "hornet's nest) is the absence of Favre as the team leader.

Let it be known that I feel Rodgers has overall done an admirable job as a first year starter. Sure, he has made mistakes but he has had many successes. He also displayed a considerable amount of physical toughness that some people questioned.

I have high hopes for his future as a very good starting QB for the Packers.

The fact is, that Favre was a team leader who inspired everyone around him. There is no way we could have expected Rodgers, a first year starter, to display the leadership that Favre developed over 16 years(17?) with the Packers.

Favre brought that charismatic leadership to the Packers that could have resulted in more wins this season. I am accepting the fact that he is gone. It had to happen some year. Unfortunately, it has been a tough season without Favre wearing the green and gold.