Perch Harvin in Brandon Spikes out

[Fritz]

Same for Rodgers the year he was drafted.

[Zool]

Same for Sanchez in about 3 months.

[Lurker64]

Same for Sanchez in about 3 months.

At about 17-19 in the draft you have a run of three teams that could all really use a QB: Jets, Bears, Bucs. I can't see him getting to 20.

[texaspackerbacker]

The question with Crabtree, as with Harvin, is can you get something almost as good farther down in the draft? Usually, that's true for WRs and RBs. True, every now and then, somebody really extraordinary comes along, but for every one of those, there are a half dozen--make that a dozen--who don't pan out--at least not as superstars.

Some positions, on the other hand, are a lot more predictable for success--corner, for example, and maybe O Line. That is what you should go with in the first round.

Yeah, yeah, I was just about to hit submit, then I started to think about Mandarich and John Michael and Terrell Buckley and the kid from Arkansas, I can't think of his name, etc. I guess nothing is sure. It's all a crapshoot.

[rbaloha1]

The question with Crabtree, as with Harvin, is can you get something almost as good farther down in the draft? Usually, that's true for WRs and RBs. True, every now and then, somebody really extraordinary comes along, but for every one of those, there are a half dozen--make that a dozen--who don't pan out--at least not as superstars.

Some positions, on the other hand, are a lot more predictable for success--corner, for example, and maybe O Line. That is what you should go with in the first round.

Yeah, yeah, I was just about to hit submit, then I started to think about Mandarich and John Michael and Terrell Buckley and the kid from Arkansas, I can't think of his name, etc. I guess nothing is sure. It's all a crapshoot.

Crabtree is special. IMO no player in this draft is comparable. On the other hand, Harvin type player are available later in the draft.

For example undrafted free agent form Hawaii Davonne Bess had a good year for the Dolphins. In fact DB's numbers were the best of any free agent receiver since Wayne Chrebet.

[Lurker64]

Don't "this WR is special" guys come around every other draft? How often do they actually end up being special?

There are scant few true superstar WRs in this league (Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, anybody else?). While those guys are both top 5 picks, it certainly doesn't appear to be the case that the NFL is particularly good at picking out the "this guy is going to be special" WRs. Let's go through the WRs taken in the top 10 for the last few years.

It's a bit early for 2007, but Calvin Johnson certainly hasn't been what the Lions needed, and Ted Ginn hasn't been particularly notable.

From 2005, Braylon Edwards has been a mild disappointment and Williamson has been a huge disappointment.

From 2004, Fitzgerald is a legitimate superstar, but neither Roy Williams nor Reggie Williams have been particularly special.

From 2003, Charles Rogers was a legitimate bust, and Andre Johnson is a legitimate superstar but he took a while to be truly dominant.

From 2001, David Terrell wouldn't be known to any of us, if he didn't play in the division.

From 2000, Peter Warrick is far from a household name, and Plaxico, while a good player, is an absolute nutcase.

From 1999 Tory Holt has had a good career, but isn't a hall of fame lock or anything, and David Boston is a bust.

So, if we go through the last 10 years, you can probably find people who thought that Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Charles Rogers, David Terrell, and Peter Warrick were special.

Personally, I would just prefer to pass on top 10 WRs.

[Fritz]

I will say that I think Calvin Johnson is going to be a great player. I think you'll see him come on big time.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Don't "this WR is special" guys come around every other draft? How often do they actually end up being special?

There are scant few true superstar WRs in this league (Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, anybody else?). While those guys are both top 5 picks, it certainly doesn't appear to be the case that the NFL is particularly good at picking out the "this guy is going to be special" WRs. Let's go through the WRs taken in the top 10 for the last few years.

It's a bit early for 2007, but Calvin Johnson certainly hasn't been what the Lions needed, and Ted Ginn hasn't been particularly notable.

From 2005, Braylon Edwards has been a mild disappointment and Williamson has been a huge disappointment.

From 2004, Fitzgerald is a legitimate superstar, but neither Roy Williams nor Reggie Williams have been particularly special.

From 2003, Charles Rogers was a legitimate bust, and Andre Johnson is a legitimate superstar but he took a while to be truly dominant.

From 2001, David Terrell wouldn't be known to any of us, if he didn't play in the division.

From 2000, Peter Warrick is far from a household name, and Plaxico, while a good player, is an absolute nutcase.

From 1999 Tory Holt has had a good career, but isn't a hall of fame lock or anything, and David Boston is a bust.

So, if we go through the last 10 years, you can probably find people who thought that Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Charles Rogers, David Terrell, and Peter Warrick were special.

Personally, I would just prefer to pass on top 10 WRs.

Come on Lurker, you're better than this. First, I'd consider Moss still a superstar WR, and Plax was until the gun incident. Maybe we just see things differently, but Calvin played spectacularly last year while being doubled covered most of the time. Ted Ginn Jr. had several big plays for the 'Phins this year, but as was the case when he came out of college, he isn't a good route runner and still needs lots of coaching, but the talent is there. Braylon was one of the best recievers in the AFC in 2007 and just had an awful year this last there is no way you can call that a mild disappointment, if anything a push. Roy Williams has also been pretty special for a couple years. The Cowboys certainly thought so when they shipped all those picks to the Lions(who by the way, found their #1 in Calvin which made that all possible) for their future replacement for T.O.. Lastly, Boston had a good career with a lot of promise, but after getting caught for steriods and his subsequent injuries he pretty much fell off the map.

Besides that your list is pretty accurate...