Who will benefit the most?

[HarveyWallbangers]

He has faced 3 3-4 defenses in his career:
vs. Dallas - 12 for 67 yds (T Jax only threw 6/19 for 72 ) over 5yrds a carry, hmm..
vs. SD - 30 for 296 (T Jax only threw 6/12 for 63 ) simply amazing..
vs. SF - 9 for 13 (T Jax was 16/25 for 163) and this one, well terrible but probably not all his fault if he only got 9 carries

Actually, it was 14 carries for 3 yards. And the Dallas game was average, for him. His career average is 5.2 yards/carry. His season average in 2007 was 5.6 yards/carry. He averaged 5.3 yards/carry. Like I said, it was an average game for him, but without a lot of carries.

Peterson will eat a lot of teams up, but I doubt it will have little to do with the scheme.

[Lurker64]

AP will eat us up in at least one game this next season if not both...

Now, you and I are very different, but I don't understand why anybody would say something like that. There's a long time between now and when Peterson will play against us. In the offseason he intends to put on weight, while maintaining his speed. It's not clear whether or not this will work.

Let's look at some ways in which Peterson might not eat us up this season.

1) Gaining weight in the offseason didn't work, he loses some of his speed and elusiveness.

2) Gaining weight in the offseason works, insofar as his speed is maintained, but carrying more weight on his frame makes him more likely to suffer minor injuries that allow him to play, but hurt his performance.

3) Perhaps the 3-4 defense Capers installs will have a definite "contain the run" focus and will be successful at containing Peterson, as San Francisco and Dallas's were.

4) Perhaps Peterson will get injured in a motorcycle accident (for example) this offseason and suffers a non-football injury, thus missing the entire season.

5) Perhaps Brad Childress will, in a characteristic display of questionable play calling plan on de-emphasizing the run to fake us out in our games next year, and he just doesn't give Peterson many touches.

6) Perhaps Peterson gets sick or injured (in the normal way that football players do, it can happen to anybody, look at Tom Brady this year) and will entirely miss one or both Packer games.

7) Perhaps Peterson will not correct the fumble habit he developed late in the last season, and will become a ball security risk leading Childress to hold back his touches. His ability to "eat us up" would at least be somewhat mitigated if he turns the ball over more often than he scores touchdowns.

8) Perhaps, now with more than twice as much tape on him than they had in the previous seasons, NFL defensive staffs will identify weaknesses in Peterson's game and/or the Vikings tendencies in using him, and neither Peterson nor the Vikings will be quick enough in correcting this. For example, Peterson's upright running style makes it difficult for him to avoid contact when the line of scrimmage is densely packed (and thus, excepting the difference in power, Chester Taylor is a better 3rd and 1 back). Plus, his blitz pickups are incredibly terrible, and we promise to do a lot of that this year. Some of this promises to make the Vikings use of Peterson somewhat predictable, if Peterson and Childress don't improve these aspects of their games.

9) Perhaps the Vikings quarterback woes will not only fail to improve, but actually somehow get worse allowing defenses to focus even more at stopping Peterson.

10) Both times the Vikings play us, Peterson comes off huge games with lots of touches on short weeks and just doesn't play as well as he could, since he had 35+ touches the previous week.

Now am I saying all of these 10 things are going to happen, or any of them, or most of them? No. But the probability of some of them mucking up his game is sufficiently high that I would never say "Peterson will do this" or "Peterson won't do this." Whether or not he "eats us up" will be decided on the football field, and nobody in the world is qualified to predict whether he will do so seven month before the season starts. So why even predict things like that?

[Patler]

AP will eat us up in at least one game this next season if not both... if we are worried about Tjack, we have other problems then...

Well, considering in the four games against the Packers so far in his career he has 72 carries for 452 yards, I guess I don't see that things will change much even if you are right. He had one game with 192 yards against the Packers last year, and in '07 112 yards on just 12 carries. Even his "bad" games against the Packers (11/45 and 19/103) were plenty good enough for production.

So just how is it that the Packers will be any worse off than the past 2 seasons?

[Pacopete4]

AP will eat us up in at least one game this next season if not both... if we are worried about Tjack, we have other problems then...

Well, considering in the four games against the Packers so far in his career he has 72 carries for 452 yards, I guess I don't see that things will change much even if you are right. He had one game with 192 yards against the Packers last year, and in '07 112 yards on just 12 carries. Even his "bad" games against the Packers (11/45 and 19/103) were plenty good enough for production.

So just how is it that the Packers will be any worse off than the past 2 seasons?

I think its gonna lead to more big games from AP with that occasional great game by the Packers D... thats all

[Fritz]

Can I collect on that PP vs. Waldo bet I made earlier????

[Harlan Huckleby]

I did'nt see Adrian Peterson's name on that list. My vote is for him.

[Fritz]

Smack got smacked too. Yup.

[cpk1994]

The data indicates that the 3-4 defense is superior to the 4-3 for run defense, that AD is not some special 3-4 killer, but had one great statistical outlier of a game, and Tarvaris Jackson absolutely sucks against 3-4 defenses.

Now let's be fait to Tarvarius. He sucks against all defenses, not just the 3-4.

[Waldo]

The data indicates that the 3-4 defense is superior to the 4-3 for run defense, that AD is not some special 3-4 killer, but had one great statistical outlier of a game, and Tarvaris Jackson absolutely sucks against 3-4 defenses.

Now let's be fait to Tarvarius. He sucks against all defenses, not just the 3-4.

LOL, too true, though he does tend to especially suck agaisnt 3-4's.

[DonHutson]

Thompson and Hunter are the guys that should see enhanced playing time. I have more faith in Thompson to figure out what to do with it.

Hawk, Jenkins, and Harrell all have a chance to show great improvement, but in all cases you could argue it's not scheme related.

Hopefully the real answer is the Packers as a whole.

[Bossman641]

BTW,

I have a theory that Waldo and Patler are the same poster. Maybe it is the nerdy glasses.

Interesting, cause I have a theory that Waldo is Woodbuck reincarnated.

[Bossman641]

I said Hawk will benefit the most, but I also admit that is me HOPING that he will benefit the most. I also think Thompson will benefit from the change.

[Lurker64]

Interesting, cause I have a theory that Waldo is Woodbuck reincarnated.

Can't be Woody, he makes too much sense and doesn't RANDOMLY CAPITALIZE or underline or bold things in his posts.

[Bossman641]

Interesting, cause I have a theory that Waldo is Woodbuck reincarnated.

Can't be Woody, he makes too much sense and doesn't RANDOMLY CAPITALIZE or underline or bold things in his posts.

You just wait. That wily Canuck will slip up some time.

[Fritz]

Ain't no way it's Woody. Waldo is intelligent and articulate and does his homework.

It's like meeting Patler's long lost brother.