GB Packers - Beating the odds

[Patler]

Saw this on a Packers show:

The Packers' 6 game losing streak is their longest in 35 years.
In 4 of the games, they had leads of two or more scores in the second halves.
With the size of leads and game times, their odds of winning were:

99% vs Cleveland
99% vs Chicago in the regular season game
96% vs Chicago in the playoff game
90% vs Minnesota this past Sunday.

The chance of losing all four games? One in 2.5 million. It is more likely to flip a coin to heads 21 consecutive times than that the Packers would lose all four of those games.

[beveaux1]

We've lived this. It's unbelievable.

[Sparkey]

We've lived this. It's unbelievable.

The 2014 NFC Championship Game on January 18, 2015, ended in a devastating 28–22 overtime loss for the Green Bay Packers against the Seattle Seahawks, featuring one of the largest late-game collapses in NFL playoff history.

It is not like this is just a LeFleur thing.

[beveaux1]

The 2014 NFC Championship Game on January 18, 2015, ended in a devastating 28–22 overtime loss for the Green Bay Packers against the Seattle Seahawks, featuring one of the largest late-game collapses in NFL playoff history.

It is not like this is just a LeFleur thing.

We've collapsed at the end of games before...many times, usually in the playoffs. This has been the worst stretch of collapse that I've seen since the beginning of the Favre era.

[Patler]

Individual big collapses aren't necessarily rare. But four in six games ......

The most concerning aspect to me is that LaFleur clearly identified finishing games as the biggest issue to correct from last season, yet nothing changed. This raises the question of LaFleur's ability to diagnose, adapt and change.

[MadtownPacker]

Very damning testimony if your name is Pepe LePew. How could he blow so many games? I have began to believe that his attitude is “little bitch” and that’s what happens when the team collapses. They shrink to the moment instead of rising and that’s 100% on the HC. All he’s doing right now is solidifying rodgers 1st ballot HOF status.

[Sparkey]

Individual big collapses aren't necessarily rare. But four in six games ......

The most concerning aspect to me is that LaFleur clearly identified finishing games as the biggest issue to correct from last season, yet nothing changed. This raises the question of LaFleur's ability to diagnose, adapt and change.

In general, the saying goes ... " If you can't identify the problem, then the problem is most likely you."

[pbmax]

The chance of losing all four games? One in 2.5 million.

This is evidence that Win Probability starts to break down at the end of games. No way this is a 1 in 2.5 million event.

It's not good, but the numbers become meaningless.

[George Cumby]

I was willing to give MLF the benefit of the doubt at the end of last season with the injuries and the vocal support from Parsons and Love.

The continuation of the choke jobs into a new season after all the talk of getting back to what they are good at it has eroded good will.

MLF is the problem. The choke jobs are his problem, his responsibility. He, and maybe the entire team, need a sports psychologist.

[ThunderDan]

I am wondering about MiLFs coaching style. You can be quiet and calm. But it seems like he is too analytical and doesn't have that kilker mentality.

[bobblehead]

This is evidence that Win Probability starts to break down at the end of games. No way this is a 1 in 2.5 million event.

It's not good, but the numbers become meaningless.

The same people say go for it on 4th down like literally every time.

[Patler]

This is evidence that Win Probability starts to break down at the end of games. No way this is a 1 in 2.5 million event.

It's not good, but the numbers become meaningless.

I didn't post this for the accuracy of the numbers. Whether accurate or inaccurate, the numbers do illustrate just how horrendously this team is performing.

Losing six consecutive games is something that had not happened since before the time of Wolf/Holmgren/Favre. Losing four in the way that they have is stunning.

I expressed reservations about extending LaFleur because of how the 2025 season ended. It was a horrible coaching performance. Yes, there were injuries, but good coaches find ways to overcome injuries. Sunday only raised my concerns. I fear that he is a coach with a style/philosophy with an expired shelf-life, and he has not demonstrated an ability to change.

[pbmax]

I didn't post this for the accuracy of the numbers. Whether accurate or inaccurate, the numbers do illustrate just how horrendously this team is performing.

Losing six consecutive games is something that had not happened since before the time of Wolf/Holmgren/Favre. Losing four in the way that they have is stunning.

I expressed reservations about extending LaFleur because of how the 2025 season ended. It was a horrible coaching performance. Yes, there were injuries, but good coaches find ways to overcome injuries. Sunday only raised my concerns. I fear that he is a coach with a style/philosophy with an expired shelf-life, and he has not demonstrated an ability to change.

Agreed. It does mean something but the most likely explanation is that it mean several things going wrong at once.

I still retain a degree of optimism as they seem to have fixed a lot of issues on D (some seem in progress - see CB position). But several of the issues like the offense going into a funk late or La Fleur calling off the dogs early, seem to have carried over.

[Patler]

Late last year there was brief talk about some players not having total confidence in LaFleur's game management. There might be something to it.

[Fritz]

His last two defenses, headed by defensive coordinators he hired, have outperformed the offenses, which he controls.

His game management and play calling is certainly suspect. That, and the fact that his offensive line got worse as the game went on, suggests that the in-game coolness and adaptability might be missing.