GB Packers - Beating the odds

[Joemailman]

His last two defenses, headed by defensive coordinators he hired, have outperformed the offenses, which he controls.

His game management and play calling is certainly suspect. That, and the fact that his offensive line got worse as the game went on, suggests that the in-game coolness and adaptability might be missing.

It seems to me that when opposing defenses make adjustments to what the Packers are doing well offensively, MLF has a tough time responding to that.

[pbmax]

The same people say go for it on 4th down like literally every time.

They are mostly correct because punts are overrated.

Especially from the 45 on in. Luke Fickell himself proved this with his surrender punt that netted 16 yards of field position after the Badgers punt rolled into the endzone.

[bobblehead]

They are mostly correct because punts are overrated.

Especially from the 45 on in. Luke Fickell himself proved this with his surrender punt that netted 16 yards of field position after the Badgers punt rolled into the endzone.

I'm fine with going for it from 45 in on 4th and short, but with todays kickers its getting even more grey to be honest. Punting should never happen from 40 and in anymore. But advanced metrics imply nearly ALWAYS going for it on 4th. Only in cases like 4th and 19 from your own 20 are "mathematically" punts. But that shows failure of the models. Just like losing those games being a human extinction event doesn't mean we were that bad, it means the models were that bad.

[pbmax]

I'm fine with going for it from 45 in on 4th and short, but with todays kickers its getting even more grey to be honest. Punting should never happen from 40 and in anymore. But advanced metrics imply nearly ALWAYS going for it on 4th. Only in cases like 4th and 19 from your own 20 are "mathematically" punts. But that shows failure of the models. Just like losing those games being a human extinction event doesn't mean we were that bad, it means the models were that bad.

They don't need to be 4th and 19 to suggest a punt but the closer you are to the opposing goalline does mean they look favorably on things that aren't fourth and short. Around midfield they get more aggressive.

But the numbers, especially from the Bots are league wide projections. It doesn't mean a team is league average in such situations. The team has to do that math.

[bobblehead]

They don't need to be 4th and 19 to suggest a punt but the closer you are to the opposing goalline does mean they look favorably on things that aren't fourth and short. Around midfield they get more aggressive.

But the numbers, especially from the Bots are league wide projections. It doesn't mean a team is league average in such situations. The team has to do that math.

The algo is written by a human to assess what data the human tells it to. It doesn't take all factors into consideration which makes it a suggestion, not a correct answer.

[bobblehead]

Example: I was at the dentist and he was hammering the new AI program that he said "gives like 80% false positives". It took my x-ray and then put little boxes around spots that it flagged. I had to explain to him that the algo was identifying problem areas, not cavities. It was designed to save him from scouring my x-ray and instead eliminated 95% of the film and let him focus on a few spots that "might" be cavities. In other words, it was a suggestion....."hey, look here and using your experience decide if its something noteworthy".