STICKING TO THE PLAN

[Waldo]

Complaining over spilled milk before the carton is even opened is rather pointless.

How many years do we have to wait to open the carton?

It opens the same time every year, the weekend after Labor Day.

[KYPack]

Why be critical of an unfinished product?

Complain all you want about his methods as an armchair GM (it's fun ), nobody is right or wrong until the leaves begin to change.

One thing to remember about Ted, he has 10000x the information at his disposal than everyone on this board combined, via a self scout, FA scout, prospects scout, coaches take, $$ projections, etc....

The only difference between ineptitude and genius is the final record, the methodology is unimportant. Complaining over spilled milk before the carton is even opened is rather pointless.

Well, on one hand you are 100% right. Any good NFL GM (Which I basically think Thompson is) has the experience, expertise, knowlege, and resources to far eclipse anything the armchair bunch [me] has or might have.

I know Thompson has the smarts and the tools to be a far better shopper than any of us mortals out here possess. I just don't think he is willing to go down all the aisles in the supermarket.

[Waldo]

This type of discussion always centers around 2 fundamental questions.

Are we bad?

Why are we bad?

The answer to the first is simple. Our record stunk last year, yes, we were bad.

To answer the second one, IMO we had 3 primary weaknesses and 4 secondary ones last season, not including any injury issues.

Primarily:
Our Defensive Coaching was awful. Good god, rarely do I have problems with coaching, but I had big problems with our defensive coaching last year. Quite simply there is one fundamental thing that a coordinator has to be able to do. Put his players in the best position to win. Bob simply could not. He and TT/MM have a fundamental disagreement on how things are done. Build the scheme to fit the players, or fit the players into the scheme. Jolly and Cole are not 2 gap players. Why we ran a scheme that required two 2 gap DT's, when we really only had 1 healthy and 1 injured 2 gap DT is beyond words. We didn't have the players for front 4 pressure once Jenkins went down and KGB was proven to be ineffective. Blitzing into a 2 gap scheme is not the answer. Typical things like stunts and zone blitzing isn't possible (at least effective) from the front 4 alignment Bob ran. Our guys trying to win with Bobs coaching was like trying to win the Indy 500 on flat tires.

SS depth was a big issue. After Bigby went down, we really had no SS that was an instinctive box defender. One of the primary draws of man coverage is that you can rotate the SS into the box and run blitz LB's. It worked like a charm in '07, stifling some of the leagues running powerhouses. That didn't exist in '08, by the time Bigby got back, Barnett went down and Bob never sent Hawk on run blitzes from the mike spot. He coached scared.

The punting game was terrible. Frosty the shankman will most likely go down as TT's most impactful mistake.

Secondary weaknesses.
The pass rush. With KGB's routine knee scope turning into a career ending injury and Jenkins going down to injury early, our lack of pass rusher depth was exposed. Bob's scheming did nothing but hurt the problem, but it is pretty safe to say that we could use another rusher or two.

DT depth. Our guys weren't bad, but we needed more of them, at least one more guy to rotate in. Jenkins injury was doubly devastating since he too was a rotational DT. We could definitely use so more 300lb+ defenders.

Offensive Tackles. Both OT's showed their age last year. MM erred on the side of caution, putting his most proven pass blockers on the field as his primary lineup. I'm not so sure that was the right approach, we definitely left a lot of running yards on the field with that lineup, and they showed cracks in the passing game as well. Fortunately IMO we have the players on the roster already to improve by simply adjusting the lineup, and really don't need to add more than depth in the draft.

ST play. The same group of guys took a big step backwards from '07 to '08. The coverage just wasn't very good. We'll see if new coaching is the answer, but the defensive scheme change should pay dividends via player types sought.

TT has already taken steps to address most of what I feel were the biggest issues. Bob is gone, replaced by who IMO was the best DC on the market, one who preaches fitting scheme to players and not vice versa. We've got a new SS (Smith was miscast in Pit, he's a SS not FS), and Frosty the shankman is gone, we are sure to have a spirited punting competition this year.

The pass rush wasn't getting better in FA, draft options are definitely more appealing, same with DT depth (especially at NT), though Canty was a good looking option, at nearly 7M a year though, ouch, he'd be our highest paid defender. I get the sense that without Canty on board, TT wants a DE that he can cut at the end camp if Harrell and Jolly show something, and not be locked in to keeping an inferior player by contract. The OT situation I'm not concerned about at all. IMO we can field a better lineup than we did last year without Tausher on the roster, and can go a few ways in the draft to significantly improve ourselves. ST remains to be seen, but an increase in the number of LB's on the roster and new coaching sure can't hurt.

I'm not panicking at all simply because IMO we have already significantly improved ourselves, and are in prime position in the draft to address the rest of what ailed us. If we come out of the draft with a good pass rusher (a guy that can give us pressure an 3rd and long (at least to begin with)), a solid OL (doesn't matter the position, or versatility allows a T, G, or C to improve us), a rotational NT and a rotational DE, I'll be perfectly content going into the season.

[Patler]

Why be critical of an unfinished product?

Complain all you want about his methods as an armchair GM (it's fun ), nobody is right or wrong until the leaves begin to change.

One thing to remember about Ted, he has 10000x the information at his disposal than everyone on this board combined, via a self scout, FA scout, prospects scout, coaches take, $$ projections, etc....

The only difference between ineptitude and genius is the final record, the methodology is unimportant. Complaining over spilled milk before the carton is even opened is rather pointless.

Well, on one hand you are 100% right. Any good NFL GM (Which I basically think Thompson is) has the experience, expertise, knowlege, and resources to far eclipse anything the armchair bunch [me] has or might have.

I know Thompson has the smarts and the tools to be a far better shopper than any of us mortals out here possess. I just don't think he is willing to go down all the aisles in the supermarket.

It appears TT has changed. His first couple years in GB he was fairly active in the FA market. Not only did he sign a bunch of veteran FAs (Klemm, O'Dwyer, Arturo Freeeman, Earl Little, Ray Thompson, Marquand Manuel, Kendrick Allen, Pickett, Woodson, Ben Taylor) he also brought in and/or had offers out to a bunch of others like Beisel, Womack, Vinieterri, etc.

Now, he is hardly involved. I can only guess that it is because he is more comfortable with the top 2/3 of his roster now than he was in '05-'06, and he isn't going to pay any significant money to fill in the bottom. He has to be happier with what he has than what is available, because he has shown a willingness to be a player in the FA market when he sees players he wants.

[cpk1994]

Why be critical of an unfinished product?

Complain all you want about his methods as an armchair GM (it's fun ), nobody is right or wrong until the leaves begin to change.

One thing to remember about Ted, he has 10000x the information at his disposal than everyone on this board combined, via a self scout, FA scout, prospects scout, coaches take, $$ projections, etc....

The only difference between ineptitude and genius is the final record, the methodology is unimportant. Complaining over spilled milk before the carton is even opened is rather pointless.

Well, on one hand you are 100% right. Any good NFL GM (Which I basically think Thompson is) has the experience, expertise, knowlege, and resources to far eclipse anything the armchair bunch [me] has or might have.

I know Thompson has the smarts and the tools to be a far better shopper than any of us mortals out here possess. I just don't think he is willing to go down all the aisles in the supermarket.

It appears TT has changed. His first couple years in GB he was fairly active in the FA market. Not only did he sign a bunch of veteran FAs (Klemm, O'Dwyer, Arturo Freeeman, Earl Little, Ray Thompson, Marquand Manuel, Kendrick Allen, Pickett, Woodson, Ben Taylor) he also brought in and/or had offers out to a bunch of others like Beisel, Womack, Vinieterri, etc.

Now, he is hardly involved.

And I think the first two names you mention are why TT has backed off. THey were such spectacular failures that made TT somewhat gunshy, mostly more skeptical of all free agents.

[texaspackerbacker]

One small point: the lack of street free agents in recent years.

My guess is that we have had fewer of those as the depth of the team has gotten better. Also, it may just seem like less signed because less of those who are signed stick on the team due to better talent already here.

Of course, it could be that Thompson, McCarthy, and I just have the false perception that Packer players are more talented ......... but i don't think so.

[Patler]

And I think the first two names you mention are why TT has backed off. THey were such spectacular failures that made TT somewhat gunshy, mostly more skeptical of all free agents.

I wouldn't call either a spectacular failure, especially not O'Dwyer.

Nothing was really expected of O'Dwyer. He basically had a vet minimum contract, as I recall. He was simply brought in as a veteran with 100+ starts to see if he had another year left in him. He didn't, and the Packers released him a couple weeks into TC. No big deal. The guaranteed money was virtually nothing. Of course, O'Dwyer filed a grievance, arguing he was injured in camp, and I believe there was a settlement eventually.

Klemm didn't make the transition to guard that they hoped, but I think he was more of a scapegoat than the reason for the bad play of the line. Wells was no better at guard than Klemm after replacing him, and probably worse in pass protection. Klemm played some at tackle late in the year, and played well, just as he had in NE. He would have made the team as a backup tackle in 2006, but was injured and ended his career. Klemm was more expensive, but not excessively so.

I think both were reasonable chances taken by TT. Neither worked out as hoped for different reasons. At the time, most "experts" gave TT high marks for signing Klemm.

[cpk1994]

And I think the first two names you mention are why TT has backed off. THey were such spectacular failures that made TT somewhat gunshy, mostly more skeptical of all free agents.

I wouldn't call either a spectacular failure, especially not O'Dwyer.

Nothing was really expected of O'Dwyer. He basically had a vet minimum contract, as I recall. He was simply brought in as a veteran with 100+ starts to see if he had another year left in him. He didn't, and the Packers released him a couple weeks into TC. No big deal. The guaranteed money was virtually nothing. Of course, O'Dwyer filed a grievance, arguing he was injured in camp, and I believe there was a settlement eventually.

Klemm didn't make the transition to guard that they hoped, but I think he was more of a scapegoat than the reason for the bad play of the line. Wells was no better at guard than Klemm after replacing him, and probably worse in pass protection. Klemm played some at tackle late in the year, and played well, just as he had in NE. He would have made the team as a backup tackle in 2006, but was injured and ended his career. Klemm was more expensive, but not excessively so.

I think both were reasonable chances taken by TT. Neither worked out as hoped for different reasons. At the time, most "experts" gave TT high marks for signing Klemm.

But when Klemm bombed, TT took major heat for it. He and O'Dwyer were pegged to start and were the direct response to not resigning Wahle and Rivera. TT is still taking heat for not resigning Wahle and Rivera. Failing with Klemm and O'Dwyer magnifies it.

[Patler]

But when Klemm bombed, TT took major heat for it. He and O'Dwyer were pegged to start and were the direct response to not resigning Wahle and Rivera. TT is still taking heat for not resigning Wahle and Rivera. Failing with Klemm and O'Dwyer magnifies it.

I agree that TT took heat for it, but unjustifiably I think. He tried to sign both Wahle and Rivera, but simply ran out of cap space to do it with when the bidding got so high. Sharper was unwilling to make changes in his contract to help out, so TT had little choice at the time but to let both leave.

TT's first choice to replace the guards was Womack, and it looked for a couple days like GB would get him. But Seattle came back with a good offer, and Womack even admitted that he didn't want to leave.

Klemm clearly was signed to be one of the starters, His conversion to guard just didn't come off as well as hoped.

Fans and even writers put a lot more into the signing of O'Dwyer than was really there. O'Dwyer himself said at the time of the signing that he just wanted an opportunity to show that he had gotten over the injuries that had kept him off the field for most of 2003 and 2004. From '96 to '02 he had started 102 of 112 games, but hardly played in either '03 or '04. Anyone who thought the signing of O'Dwyer was TT thinking O'Dwyer was a lock to be a starter was naive. The Packers had a need, O'Dwyer wanted a chance, and TT gave it to him for the vet's minimum salary.

[KYPack]

Waldo , this is a helluva analysis. You should have made it a full blown article and have Mad publish the thing. That is the story, I can't really disagree with anything you've written. My comments in bold.

Primarily:
Our Defensive Coaching was awful. Good god, rarely do I have problems with coaching, but I had big problems with our defensive coaching last year. Quite simply there is one fundamental thing that a coordinator has to be able to do. Put his players in the best position to win. Bob simply could not. He and TT/MM have a fundamental disagreement on how things are done. Build the scheme to fit the players, or fit the players into the scheme. Jolly and Cole are not 2 gap players. Why we ran a scheme that required two 2 gap DT's, when we really only had 1 healthy and 1 injured 2 gap DT is beyond words. We didn't have the players for front 4 pressure once Jenkins went down and KGB was proven to be ineffective. Blitzing into a 2 gap scheme is not the answer. Typical things like stunts and zone blitzing isn't possible (at least effective) from the front 4 alignment Bob ran. Our guys trying to win with Bobs coaching was like trying to win the Indy 500 on flat tires.

Agree 100%. That was what happened. Sanders was put on task to develop a more diversified scheme that would allow different looks, especially some blitz looks. He failed miserably. Our run fits were basic, but repetitive. Bob needed firing and he got it.

SS depth was a big issue. After Bigby went down, we really had no SS that was an instinctive box defender. One of the primary draws of man coverage is that you can rotate the SS into the box and run blitz LB's. It worked like a charm in '07, stifling some of the leagues running powerhouses. That didn't exist in '08, by the time Bigby got back, Barnett went down and Bob never sent Hawk on run blitzes from the mike spot. He coached scared.

I think Rouses' injury killed us here. Is he a good kid who was dinged, or a one dimensional, limited guy? Time will tell and Smith will help, even though he was a swing guy in Pitt, he may BE the SS this season.

The punting game was terrible. Frosty the shankman will most likely go down as TT's most impactful mistake.

I felt TT got snookered here by Stock. Ryan was screwing up, but Frost was no help at all. Ryan should have been coached up by Stock instead of cut. Stock's ST troops regressed last season and it killed us, too.

Secondary weaknesses.
The pass rush. With KGB's routine knee scope turning into a career ending injury and Jenkins going down to injury early, our lack of pass rusher depth was exposed. Bob's scheming did nothing but hurt the problem, but it is pretty safe to say that we could use another rusher or two.

That was the worst scope job in NFL history

DT depth. Our guys weren't bad, but we needed more of them, at least one more guy to rotate in. Jenkins injury was doubly devastating since he too was a rotational DT. We could definitely use so more 300lb+ defenders.

We really lost 3 DLine guys. Williams, Jenkins, and KGB. It hurt, bad.

Offensive Tackles. Both OT's showed their age last year. MM erred on the side of caution, putting his most proven pass blockers on the field as his primary lineup. I'm not so sure that was the right approach, we definitely left a lot of running yards on the field with that lineup, and they showed cracks in the passing game as well. Fortunately IMO we have the players on the roster already to improve by simply adjusting the lineup, and really don't need to add more than depth in the draft.

Moll gets his last chance ya think? Or add a body there? Moll is a good fill-in. But if the other team gets to gameplan him as a starter, whooee

ST play. The same group of guys took a big step backwards from '07 to '08. The coverage just wasn't very good. We'll see if new coaching is the answer, but the defensive scheme change should pay dividends via player types sought.

Yeah, with a 3-4, you get more backers. But some of the backers may not be ST demons. 4-3 backers can run the field better than SOLB guys, so we might not add as many troops as you think. The loss of Tracy White hurt like hell here. Without White, our boys were a bunch of headless horsemen. Our team will improve as we will have some new field leaders in 09

TT has already taken steps to address most of what I feel were the biggest issues. Bob is gone, replaced by who IMO was the best DC on the market, one who preaches fitting scheme to players and not vice versa. We've got a new SS (Smith was miscast in Pit, he's a SS not FS), and Frosty the shankman is gone, we are sure to have a spirited punting competition this year.

Capers is a doctor of defense, all right. Darren Perry is a great secondary coach. He knows every trick in the book and can coach DB's with the best of 'em. I caught his act in Cincy with Lewis' staff, he's strong. Kevin Greene was one of the best elephant LB's ever and will add spirit at the minimum. The D should get back on track with these new coaches. We won't be as predictable and obvious, at least.

The pass rush wasn't getting better in FA, draft options are definitely more appealing, same with DT depth (especially at NT), though Canty was a good looking option, at nearly 7M a year though, ouch, he'd be our highest paid defender. I get the sense that without Canty on board, TT wants a DE that he can cut at the end camp if Harrell and Jolly show something, and not be locked in to keeping an inferior player by contract. The OT situation I'm not concerned about at all. IMO we can field a better lineup than we did last year without Tausher on the roster, and can go a few ways in the draft to significantly improve ourselves. ST remains to be seen, but an increase in the number of LB's on the roster and new coaching sure can't hurt.

Getting pass rush help in FA is all but impossible. Everybody will overpay just on the hope that a guy will help.

I keep thinking and hoping that Taush will be back for the last hurrah, but the draft may yield us a guy.

I'm not panicking at all simply because IMO we have already significantly improved ourselves, and are in prime position in the draft to address the rest of what ailed us. If we come out of the draft with a good pass rusher (a guy that can give us pressure an 3rd and long (at least to begin with)), a solid OL (doesn't matter the position, or versatility allows a T, G, or C to improve us), a rotational NT and a rotational DE, I'll be perfectly content going into the season.

Great post, once again Waldo. Where I'm worried about TT is his ignoring street FA's. Is there a 3-4 DE out there coming off a 2 year injury that can help us? Bring him into camp. Street FA's rarely work out, but every once in awhile, you find a Desmond Howard. A vet with talent that will explode at a new job. Bring in 3 or 4 NFL vagabonds and see if one of 'em can do the job. TT did just that with Smith. Let's add a few more "Smiths".

[Waldo]

The cuttable DE I still think is in the cards, with Carter as the most likely guy.

On the OL, there are so many alignments that can work IMO that could yield very good results.

Barbre is moving to T most likely (doesn't have the brains for the interior IMO). I think RT is his best spot, he could be quite good there. Sitton is literally a Tausher clone, in body, skills, and play style. While he has incredible upside at G, he could swing out to RT and probably be Tausher 2 with little issue (Tausher probably could have been an elite RG). He actually was a RT draft day, that we moved inside to RG. Spitz has a lot of upside at C, and most likely would easily beat Wells in a 1 on 1 competition in camp if he stuck to C only. His best value though IMO is the first guy off the bench in the interior. He can do an acceptable job at all 3 interior spots. He's the kind of guy you want when injuries strike. I also think that Colledge is a better LT than Clifton, and would legitimately beat him in open competition. Moll definitely has a shot at RT. Physical ability is definitely not his problem, mental focus is. Breno is a legitamate challenge to start at RT as well.

Getting a guy like Mack or Unger could go a long way for us, or a LT/LG guy like Merideth to play behind Colledge. There's a few solid right side guys (Tupou/Watkins/Kropog/Parrish/etc...) available in the mid-later rounds that would be solid bench options to push Moll, Parrish and Kropog would be solid LT/LG's also to play behind Colledge if Barbre goes to the right side.

IMO a line of Clifton-Colledge-Mack-Sitton-Barbre would be sick, significantly better than what we fielded last year.

[wist43]

One small point: the lack of street free agents in recent years.

My guess is that we have had fewer of those as the depth of the team has gotten better. Also, it may just seem like less signed because less of those who are signed stick on the team due to better talent already here.

Of course, it could be that Thompson, McCarthy, and I just have the false perception that Packer players are more talented ......... but i don't think so.

Tex even implying that the talent level of the Packers "isn't all that" is earth shattering... nothing makes sense anymoe

I'm going home now, no need to work anymore... the apocolypse draweth nigh

[texaspackerbacker]

One small point: the lack of street free agents in recent years.

My guess is that we have had fewer of those as the depth of the team has gotten better. Also, it may just seem like less signed because less of those who are signed stick on the team due to better talent already here.

Of course, it could be that Thompson, McCarthy, and I just have the false perception that Packer players are more talented ......... but i don't think so.

Tex even implying that the talent level of the Packers "isn't all that" is earth shattering... nothing makes sense anymoe

I'm going home now, no need to work anymore... the apocolypse draweth nigh

I reread my post three times, and I can't for the life of me, figure out where you could read the "isn't all that" from it. Ted and Mike assure me that they can't fathom how you could come to that conclusion either.

[wist43]

One small point: the lack of street free agents in recent years.

My guess is that we have had fewer of those as the depth of the team has gotten better. Also, it may just seem like less signed because less of those who are signed stick on the team due to better talent already here.

Of course, it could be that Thompson, McCarthy, and I just have the false perception that Packer players are more talented ......... but i don't think so.

Tex even implying that the talent level of the Packers "isn't all that" is earth shattering... nothing makes sense anymoe

I'm going home now, no need to work anymore... the apocolypse draweth nigh

I reread my post three times, and I can't for the life of me, figure out where you could read the "isn't all that" from it. Ted and Mike assure me that they can't fathom how you could come to that conclusion either.[/quote

"Of course, it could be that Thompson, McCarthy, and I just have the false perception that Packer players are more talented..."

Who are you, and what have you done with Tex???

[retailguy]

I'd be a lot more fired up if the plan was always right. But the "plan" got us lost in the Woods last year. That doesn't bother Lori Nickel, but it worries me some.

One part of the plan that makes me nervous the whole "kids, kids, kids, grow from within" deal.

Look at the DB's. Williams is holding us up for money and Jarrett Bush will get a million a year from us or Tenn. They have the time in and are going to get the best deal. Williams will get a couple mil a year or so, if we sign him. Bush will get a mil a year. We have to lay out good money to retain both players. Meanwhile, NE just signed Leigh Bodden for $750,000, the beloved veterans minimum for a player of his time and grade.

Leigh Bodden is a comparable player to Williams. He is a much better corner than Bush, doesn't play safety and isn't a ST guy. We could have had a reasonable solution to this problem by signing Bodden and Bush. Let Williams walk and we have two back-up CB's for under two million per year. We won't because Thompson's vision of the plan is to retain his own at all costs. (This ain't no Anti-TT rap here, now).

Sometimes, a vet FA is a better alternative than the "plan". We should get talent from all the streams available. I think it's OK that we don't get "stupid money" vet FA's. But we should get more value FA's. As you can guess, I've always like Leigh Bodden. He's a good young troop. A vet player who got screwed by being with dumb organizations. It isn't his fault that he played for Savage's Browns and Millen's Lions.

NE is the team that uses the value vet FA market the best. They grow their own, but sign vet FA's and make smart trades. I'd like to see us keep our overall approach, but be clever in all areas. Our reluctance to make a deal or sign a value vet is hurting us.

KY - there are about a 1/2 dozen people in this forum that I really value their advice/opinion and you're one of those guys. This gets my nomination for post of the year. Sincerely.

You nailed it. I tried to express these thoughts over the whole Canty situation, but failed miserably, in fact, Patler thought I'd lost my mind.

You said it for me. This is how I've felt for the last two seasons. Even last year, coming off 13-3, I felt there were a few specific areas we could improve and that drafting was not the solution.

True to form, you can't always land the player you want, but if you need 5, can't you land ONE?

Ted is leaving one tool in the toolbox and it bugs me. Even if he doesn't like to use it, you still pull it out, show it to the cameras and talk a good game. If you don't, that tool becomes WORTHLESS, or at least devalued.