Packers' FA re-signing dilemma

[RashanGary]

Winning a SB involves talent, coaching, health and a few things aligning the right way.

Thompson can control the talent and coaching. In a round about way, they can control health with a good offseason and training program.



Talent, IMO, is the biggest factor in great teams. However, each team is given the same amount of money to work with so how money is spent indirectly, but profoundly, effects how much talent a team has.


If we can accept that talent plays a big role in winning championships and how money is spent effects how much talent can be afforded, then we agree than finding ways to lock up players to good, fair (but not overpriced) contracts is critical in building a championship team. Look at recent SB winners. They all have good, healthy contracts with several players over performing.

UFA, by nature, drives prices through the roof. Everyone is bidding. Agents use fear (the same type that has people panicking here) to drive prices up even further with harmful bidding wars. Avoiding UFA is key in not crippling your franchise with bad contracts.

Letting your own good players get to UFA will, undoubtedly, lead to prices being driven through the roof. Having the foresight to recognize a quality, core player before he's completely estabished and proven, and then locking him up early to a good (but not overpriced) contract will, undoubtedly, lead to you having more talent, paying less and being able to continue to afford even more on your way to a SB championship.



Ted Thompson has several good, young draft picks and other players coming up. Jennings is a star. Kampman is a star. There are a bunch of good, solid players as well. Good solid players in UFA get a lot of money. Stars get a ton of money. You were an advocate of paying Ryan Grant 3 years before he had any leverage but now you don't want to pay these guys 12 mos before they have all of the leverage. Excuse me while I think that sounds insane.

Ted Thompson has a good situation set up. He's been patient in getting it to the point it is, but making it better is going to take more than waiting till the last minute. Sometimes not getting something done is the right thing when it's way too much money, but when you can do something to help the team today when waiting will hurt the team, it's not time to sit with your thumb in your ass. This is time for Ted to act. I will not be a big supporter if he lets all of these players get to UFA. I will esspecially not be a fan if he lets them go, they perform well else where and we have 22 year old junk replacing them. This pattern of forever young is not what I support. The way the team was built, it's been the right thing and understandable but that is no longer the case. He better act or this team will not be on track for a SB. It's time for time for this team to grow together. He doesn't have to keep them all, but in hidsight, he better make the right decisions at the right time or someone who did will end up winning and he'll be a loser looking for a new job.

[bobblehead]

realistically, what are we looking at to resign jennings

something like 9-10 million a year? 20 million bonus money?

last year lee evan signed a 4 year 37 million dollar deal with 18 million in guaranteed money. that made him the 3rd highest paid wr at the time

IMO

jennings > evens. with more potential

would TT even keep him if he costs that much? honestly, if we sign all our own free agents to market value then we'll be right back up against the cap and maybe back in cap hell. if we can even sign them all

right back where we started

Evans was overpaid a bit, but if you look at his career vs. Jennings career objectively they would be similar, but Evans hasn't had a decent QB yet.

[bobblehead]

realistically, what are we looking at to resign jennings

something like 9-10 million a year? 20 million bonus money?

last year lee evan signed a 4 year 37 million dollar deal with 18 million in guaranteed money. that made him the 3rd highest paid wr at the time

IMO

jennings > evens. with more potential

would TT even keep him if he costs that much? honestly, if we sign all our own free agents to market value then we'll be right back up against the cap and maybe back in cap hell. if we can even sign them all

right back where we started

I kind of doubt that TT will spend that to keep Jennings.

I have always felt that the top WRs are among the most overpaid positions in football. I know many will disagree with me, but I have a hard time understanding why a guy who touches the ball just 7 or 8 times a game is worth that kind of money, when if you don't have him someone else will get many of those receptions anyway. I also think you can be effective with a much less expensive, second level talent at WR. Your passing game may change, but can still be productive.

When I saw that Evens deal I was sick; Jennings is far better. If you believe TT takes care of his own, you'd believe TT will make the highest priority to sign Jennings. He can frontload a bunch into next year if he chooses.

Then again if TT drafts Crabtree............

You're being a homer. Jennings is good, but has exactly one thousand yard season to his credit.

[bobblehead]

I think it would be a good idea to pay Colledge (as a Guard) now, so when he moves out to Tackle full time he'll be a comparative bargain. If you wait to pay him after he's installed at T, he's going to cost a lot more.

That's true. Waiting till guys become proven to everyone is the absolute worst time to pay them (esspecially when proven and UFA come at the same time). Look at NIck Collins he and his agent think they are all proven. Now it's a nightmare. You have to have foresight to avoid things like that. Look at that fat deal he gave Kampman just before he broke out and made the deal look tiny. That is what a GM is paid to do. He's paid to pay a guy before he breaks out and reap the benefits of the good contract.

We might not have enough info, but Ted should. He gets paid to project college talent. He should be a fucking ace at projecting the guys he's watched every day at practice and in every NFL game for 3 years. There is no way he should wait until the middle or end of next season. That is asking for disaster and proves he's a coward that should not be an NFL GM. It's not time to let these guys get away and it's not time to sit on your hands so you can overpay them in UFA and cripple your franchise. IT's time to lock our guys up and grow together as a team. It's time to shed that youngest team in the league title. Now is the time for Ted Thompson to win.

Did you feel this way when Sherman gave Hunt the big bucks and let Holliday walk??

[bobblehead]

i'm with you on colledge

is there anyway you can find out howmany times he was flagged last year? it seemed to be quite a bit

Six in total, four false starts, 2 holds.

well, i guess that isn't a lot

You sure on the two holds? I see a couple places that say he had two holds, but the Green Bay Press Gazette said he had 6 penalties, but only one hold, one ineligible man downfield (which was a bogus call). I think other places just lumped those together.

One hold on the year is pretty good - except that he was charged with allowing 6 sacks! I'd rather a couple more hold, and a couple less sacks, all things considered.

well, if it was one hold, then it was zero holds as that one was a phantom call in the second minnesota game where he executed a perfect engage and cut block. Even Troy Aikman said it was a horrible call.

[Fritz]

Patler, the thing about paying a wide receiver big bucks can be tied to the word "playmaker." Lots of guys seem to be able to catch the ball, but Jennings can catch the ball on a slant and turn it into a touchdown - seemingly much more often than guys like, say, Ruvell Martin Every time Jennings touches the ball, it seems possible that a TD could be the result, whereas other receivers have yet to show that kind of touchdown-making ability, except maybe DD.

[Patler]

Patler, the thing about paying a wide receiver big bucks can be tied to the word "playmaker." Lots of guys seem to be able to catch the ball, but Jennings can catch the ball on a slant and turn it into a touchdown - seemingly much more often than guys like, say, Ruvell Martin Every time Jennings touches the ball, it seems possible that a TD could be the result, whereas other receivers have yet to show that kind of touchdown-making ability, except maybe DD.

I understand the difference, I just don't think it is worth the big money these guys are paid. That's why I said the offense may have to be different without them, but it can still function well. It's just more exciting for the fans with a receiver like that on the team.

[Waldo]

Patler, the thing about paying a wide receiver big bucks can be tied to the word "playmaker." Lots of guys seem to be able to catch the ball, but Jennings can catch the ball on a slant and turn it into a touchdown - seemingly much more often than guys like, say, Ruvell Martin Every time Jennings touches the ball, it seems possible that a TD could be the result, whereas other receivers have yet to show that kind of touchdown-making ability, except maybe DD.

I understand the difference, I just don't think it is worth the big money these guys are paid. That's why I said the offense may have to be different without them, but it can still function well. It's just more exciting for the fans with a receiver like that on the team.

Only star QB's and star RB's are better for selling jerseys and filling stands.

[Patler]

Patler, the thing about paying a wide receiver big bucks can be tied to the word "playmaker." Lots of guys seem to be able to catch the ball, but Jennings can catch the ball on a slant and turn it into a touchdown - seemingly much more often than guys like, say, Ruvell Martin Every time Jennings touches the ball, it seems possible that a TD could be the result, whereas other receivers have yet to show that kind of touchdown-making ability, except maybe DD.

I understand the difference, I just don't think it is worth the big money these guys are paid. That's why I said the offense may have to be different without them, but it can still function well. It's just more exciting for the fans with a receiver like that on the team.

Only star QB's and star RB's are better for selling jerseys and filling stands.

What?
You don't think fans are attracted to the play of the guards?

[vince]

Winning a SB involves talent, coaching, health and a few things aligning the right way.

Thompson can control the talent and coaching. In a round about way, they can control health with a good offseason and training program.



Talent, IMO, is the biggest factor in great teams. However, each team is given the same amount of money to work with so how money is spent indirectly, but profoundly, effects how much talent a team has.


If we can accept that talent plays a big role in winning championships and how money is spent effects how much talent can be afforded, then we agree than finding ways to lock up players to good, fair (but not overpriced) contracts is critical in building a championship team. Look at recent SB winners. They all have good, healthy contracts with several players over performing.

UFA, by nature, drives prices through the roof. Everyone is bidding. Agents use fear (the same type that has people panicking here) to drive prices up even further with harmful bidding wars. Avoiding UFA is key in not crippling your franchise with bad contracts.

Letting your own good players get to UFA will, undoubtedly, lead to prices being driven through the roof. Having the foresight to recognize a quality, core player before he's completely estabished and proven, and then locking him up early to a good (but not overpriced) contract will, undoubtedly, lead to you having more talent, paying less and being able to continue to afford even more on your way to a SB championship.



Ted Thompson has several good, young draft picks and other players coming up. Jennings is a star. Kampman is a star. There are a bunch of good, solid players as well. Good solid players in UFA get a lot of money. Stars get a ton of money. You were an advocate of paying Ryan Grant 3 years before he had any leverage but now you don't want to pay these guys 12 mos before they have all of the leverage. Excuse me while I think that sounds insane.

Ted Thompson has a good situation set up. He's been patient in getting it to the point it is, but making it better is going to take more than waiting till the last minute. Sometimes not getting something done is the right thing when it's way too much money, but when you can do something to help the team today when waiting will hurt the team, it's not time to sit with your thumb in your ass. This is time for Ted to act. I will not be a big supporter if he lets all of these players get to UFA. I will esspecially not be a fan if he lets them go, they perform well else where and we have 22 year old junk replacing them. This pattern of forever young is not what I support. The way the team was built, it's been the right thing and understandable but that is no longer the case. He better act or this team will not be on track for a SB. It's time for time for this team to grow together. He doesn't have to keep them all, but in hidsight, he better make the right decisions at the right time or someone who did will end up winning and he'll be a loser looking for a new job.

Glad you're back in action JH. I agree with what you've posted, except with what you're suggesting I'm saying, and with your assertion that the team has its greatest negotiating leverage right now.

I'm not advocating for waiting until the last minute or until (some of) these guys become free agents, as you're suggesting I am. I too hope a number of these guys can be re-upped (including those you suggested, except possibly Jolly) to the best possible contracts for the team. I agree that Thompson should negotiate when he has the greatest advantage. While that isn't at the very end of their contract term, that isn't right now either.

Thompson should wait until at least after the draft to be able to project with any level of accuracy whatsoever what the overall makeup of the team will be moving forward. Once the draft is over, there is a big spike in information available to him where it will enable the team to negotiate from a position of far greater strength then it has now.

If he lands B.J. Raji for example, that could change the complexion of the Pickett negotiations, don't you agree? I already mentioned Jolly's current negotiating leverage. Moll is another one. The same can be said for most of these guys, with the probable exception of Jennings.

It would be foolish to be in a rush to re-sign a bunch of guys to sizable contracts when there may well be cheaper and perhaps even more talented options ready to step in somewhere that could alter the roles - and reduce the value - of the guys in question.

Given the complexities of optimizing the value and talent of an NFL franchise, completing the process for many of these guys may take a bit into training camp. And given that there are a high number of guys with contracts coming due, and given that they are likely going to have differing opinions of their worth than the team does, the process may well go into the season for many of them - but hopefully not until the next free agency period - at least for the guys Thompson truly feels the need to keep. Many of these guys may well maintain an elevated view of their worth, and even though Thompson would like to sign them, he may have to refuse to overpay. Based on what you're saying here, I'm pretty sure you wouldn't advocate Ted giving in to players overinflated demands just to sign them early. That's the opposite of what I understand you to be saying here.

With the draft, then draftpick signings, then training camp and roster analysis and decisions, and the negotiating positioning on the part of player agents, it's going to take some time to work through all these negotiations JH. The sooner the better for Jennings, Colledge and Spitz as far as I'm concerned because I think their general roles are determined with relative certainty, but they may be overvaluing themselves right now relative to the team's needs.

I agree that Ted should be workign on these deals (which he is from what I've read) while also preparing for the draft and getting the draftpicks signed so they can get into camp, and while he's evaluating throughout training camp (which I'm sure he will be), but give Ted the time it will take to reach agreement with these guys to optimize the team's talent level per dollar of investment as you're rightfully (IMO) suggesting he should.

And about Grant, I did think the team had more leverage with him than they exercized, but I think the Favre fiasco played a part in that, and they did end up with a performance and incentive laden deal that will ultimately pay him what he's worth - with a little more up front than I'd hoped for. I suspect many of these guys will also end up with performance-based deals, but I suspect they're a bit tougher to come up with mutually agreeable benchmarks for offensive linemen than running backs.

[Patler]

Patler, the thing about paying a wide receiver big bucks can be tied to the word "playmaker." Lots of guys seem to be able to catch the ball, but Jennings can catch the ball on a slant and turn it into a touchdown - seemingly much more often than guys like, say, Ruvell Martin Every time Jennings touches the ball, it seems possible that a TD could be the result, whereas other receivers have yet to show that kind of touchdown-making ability, except maybe DD.

I understand the difference, I just don't think it is worth the big money these guys are paid. That's why I said the offense may have to be different without them, but it can still function well. It's just more exciting for the fans with a receiver like that on the team.

Only star QB's and star RB's are better for selling jerseys and filling stands.

What?
You don't think fans are attracted to the play of the guards?

All kidding aside Waldo, that is true, but there seems to be more reluctance to lavishing money on RBs than there was in the past. It used to be that only LTs of the O-line were paid real high. Now, select players anywhere along the O-line can be paid quite well. I think the money should come from the overpaid WRs.

[Waldo]

There is something to be said though for a WR that forces the S to nervously cheat to his side a bit and forces the playcaller to avoid excessively loading the box with defenders, that can still be productive in the face of the best the defense can throw at him.

Even though they may only catch a handful of balls a game, their impact on every play is only second to the QB in the way the defense aligns itself to defend against the offense. Only with a stud back and inept QB will a defense be concerned with a back more than a stud WR.

[RashanGary]

We're near the same page, Vince.

That is also a good point, to wait until after the draft. I think some time in TC, before the season starts is ideal. After the season starts, a player (and agent) will want to jsut wait and get full value on the open market. That point is getting close.


The Steelers let Burris go. They let Randel-el go. They kept Ward. It's OK to lose good players. I am OK with that. I'm more OK with letting a good one go than overpaying, in fact. With that said, Thompson is paid to know which are good and which are needed. I agree there is a balance, but of the ones he chooses to work out, they all better be done or damn near done before the season (unless they are demanding too much, but I doubt very many of our guys coming up have that type of entitlement just yet). Collins could be difficult. Outside of that, I would expect most of the contracts to be doable and I'd expect Thompson to have a damn good idea before the season starts which ones he wants to keep.