Blind Faith: Is this TT's last year at GM?

[sheepshead]

McCarthy would go first IMO. If we go 8-8 or some such thing Mike takes the fall. The Gruden, Cowher, Shanahan rumors will start in November. General Managers dont loose 5 games by 4 points. Remember that.

[rbaloha1]

Check out Sporting News drat grade minus Sherman's 2004 draft.

Solid roster. Still unsure of the future given the transition to the 3-4 which was TT's decision.

[pbmax]

IF Crabby or Wells is a star, we should have absolutely no hesitation grabbing either one.

So Bretsky, you have no objection to success? That's a bold stand you are taking there.

But what are you and Partial predicting? One year "key" or two "probably here"?

[pbmax]

I'd like him to look at needs...
...TT NEEDS to get a stud in the draft. I know it's a crapshoot...
These are simply aphorisms. And they contradict each other. The draft is about probabilities and the odds are less that 50% that first round picks pan out to multi-year starters. If you concentrate only on positions of need, you are guaranteed to lower your chance of success. If you want a stud in a certain spot, then BPA is the way to go.

So now he MUST hit on one of these top picks.
This is a bad bet. And its why more picks are better than fewer.

... he must eschew his hard-on for the BPA, and concentrate on the best player for the positions he needs in the draft...
Every team does this and wants this to happen. It doesn't work out as often as it does. You can see it working out when a team trades down, other times you are at the mercy of the teams picking ahead of you. Even with trades, not always in your control.

And if we get the BPA, albeit a position of obvious strength and disregard our old ass OT's and pathetic DL players, then what?
Why do we think THIS year's draft class will develop faster than last years, when Giacomini was not ready to go. Tauscher is the rare later round pick who was ready to go at Tackle. If you target a tackle in the first round, then the chances of getting a stud diminish.

I want Ted to succeed, but he really needs to step up is all Snake is saying...
Then he should play the odds, otherwise you are advocating more risk.

If all you do is rely on the draft, and you go BPA ALL THE TIME, they might not pan out either (thus Harrell thus far)
Considering the price that Corey Williams and Colin Cole demanded on the market, the Harrell pick does not look so much like BPA as a pick where you knew you would need a player. Neither of the two DTs who left are world beaters, but both commanded princely sums. Williams might pan out at 3-4 end, but his contract figure makes even less sense there and in 2008 we didn't know Capers would be here.

[Partial]

I really don't think he drafts BPA. Their is an obvious rating system where need is clearly factored in, but I'm sure some GMs put a higher value on need than others.

With that said, I would bet my bottom dollar TT has at least this year and next. The switch of DC to a highly credible name and with MMs offensive prowess bought TT and co at least another year.

TT is a pretty good GM imo, but he really needs to hit on a star this year. If this pick turns into another Harrell, that won't bode well for our team. If this guy is a star, I think we'll be playoff bound for a long time.

[wist43]

Don't see TT as being on the hot seat at all...

He'll keep plodding along with his BPA approach, regardless of position, and the team will continue to try to fill "needs" by developing from within.

And that approach is all well and good, if you're hitting on all your high draft choices, and some of your 6th rounders prove to be competent staters, with the occassional surprise stud in there.

Of course that hasn't been the case though... as TT has too many high picks that are either pedestrian, Hawk; or a bust, Harrell; or wasted, Murphy; or redundant, Jones and Nelson, etc...

Don't see how that ever lands us in a SB...

That said, TT has had enough decent picks, and they have done a decent job developing some guys to the point where GB is at least as good as anyone else in the division, so I don't see that TT will be going anywhere for a while.

[rbaloha1]

Don't see TT as being on the hot seat at all...

He'll keep plodding along with his BPA approach, regardless of position, and the team will continue to try to fill "needs" by developing from within.

And that approach is all well and good, if you're hitting on all your high draft choices, and some of your 6th rounders prove to be competent staters, with the occassional surprise stud in there.

Of course that hasn't been the case though... as TT has too many high picks that are either pedestrian, Hawk; or a bust, Harrell; or wasted, Murphy; or redundant, Jones and Nelson, etc...

Don't see how that ever lands us in a SB...

That said, TT has had enough decent picks, and they have done a decent job developing some guys to the point where GB is at least as good as anyone else in the division, so I don't see that TT will be going anywhere for a while.

TT is a disciple of Ron Wolf. This approach also helped the Seahawks reach the Super Bowl.

[The Shadow]

TT is not on the hot seat. I think most thinking fans seem the wisdom of his steady, build thru the draft approach.

[wist43]

Don't see TT as being on the hot seat at all...

He'll keep plodding along with his BPA approach, regardless of position, and the team will continue to try to fill "needs" by developing from within.

And that approach is all well and good, if you're hitting on all your high draft choices, and some of your 6th rounders prove to be competent staters, with the occassional surprise stud in there.

Of course that hasn't been the case though... as TT has too many high picks that are either pedestrian, Hawk; or a bust, Harrell; or wasted, Murphy; or redundant, Jones and Nelson, etc...

Don't see how that ever lands us in a SB...

That said, TT has had enough decent picks, and they have done a decent job developing some guys to the point where GB is at least as good as anyone else in the division, so I don't see that TT will be going anywhere for a while.

TT is a disciple of Ron Wolf. This approach also helped the Seahawks reach the Super Bowl.

I agree with the approach in general... have to build thru the draft; however, if you're not hitting on enough draft picks, which the Packers aren't; and, you're not augmenting your roster thru other means, i.e. FA and trades, which the Packers aren't; then, no, you'll never get to a SB... unless it's just fluke luck, on a down year for the NFC, ala Chicago a few years ago.

In the end, I don't think TT is any danger... he'll be in GB till he decides to leave.

[SnakeLH2006]

Don't see TT as being on the hot seat at all...

He'll keep plodding along with his BPA approach, regardless of position, and the team will continue to try to fill "needs" by developing from within.

And that approach is all well and good, if you're hitting on all your high draft choices, and some of your 6th rounders prove to be competent staters, with the occassional surprise stud in there.

Of course that hasn't been the case though... as TT has too many high picks that are either pedestrian, Hawk; or a bust, Harrell; or wasted, Murphy; or redundant, Jones and Nelson, etc...

Don't see how that ever lands us in a SB...

That said, TT has had enough decent picks, and they have done a decent job developing some guys to the point where GB is at least as good as anyone else in the division, so I don't see that TT will be going anywhere for a while.

TT is a disciple of Ron Wolf. This approach also helped the Seahawks reach the Super Bowl.

I agree with the approach in general... have to build thru the draft; however, if you're not hitting on enough draft picks, which the Packers aren't; and, you're not augmenting your roster thru other means, i.e. FA and trades, which the Packers aren't; then, no, you'll never get to a SB... unless it's just fluke luck, on a down year for the NFC, ala Chicago a few years ago.

In the end, I don't think TT is any danger... he'll be in GB till he decides to leave.

Perhaps Snake jumped the boat a bit, yet I do believe TT is in danger in the near future IF and a big IF we don't make the playoffs this year. He might buy a year or two, but in that case M3 is gone for sure.

Definitely build through the draft...it's a great approach as far as cap issues and augmenting a solid roster of young guys making minimal salaries so you can pay your stars.

But Wist sees what Snake is saying...if we DON'T bolster the roster/upgrade with FA or trades..it's all a crapshoot in the draft. Now Snake likes the draft 10 fold, yet it seems TT's pattern is going BPA much of the time with safe/character picks...That's fine, but most of his picks aren't making much of difference. Hawk is exhibit A.

I have no prob. with the BPA available, yet what is the difference if it was a need like OT, DT, or DE? Not much. Just cuz that draftee is a need, doesn't mean he's much more likely to bust (just possibly not as good as the BPA). When the BPA busts it's the same...many 1st rounders bust. Yes, it's a crapshoot, but put your bets on a need (when you can't acquire your needs in FA or trades) instead of the BPA, when they both may bust equally. Also, those BPA's WON'T help us win more in 2009 at WR or RB (positions of strength) when we are so dire on both the OL and the DL. That's the point of this topic.

When the GM eschews 2 of the 3 routes (FA and trades) for acquiring "difference makers", then he MUST rely on the draft to get the elite players that make you a SB team. So far, other than Arod and Jennings, he's missed badly for elite players. That's the boat TT is on.

TT might go a decade yet, and I'm fine with that (but that means we are winning), but Snake is convinced that if he goes 6-10 again, he's close to done, as the Packer nation can't/won't stand for mediocrity when the Favre era won most EVERY year (maybe not SB's, but playoffs)...that shit keeps your job at GM. Playoffs...

TT is 1 for 4 so far. I'm not out to lynch him yet, but this is a damn ass critical draft for TT, cuz he makes it that way. TT does this to himself by not acquiring difference makers. As much as Snake hates Cutler, I think that was an awesome addition to a glaring need for their team that will make them a 10 win team for many seasons potentially.

And to finalize this post, TT does do safe picks (that's fine) but when you need an elite player with the first pick (as my take was his 1st rounders have been mostly underwhelming) and he needs to get us a stud immediately to start and help dominate. BPA in this draft will NOT do that this year. Dominant players win championships in the NFL, but we truly need one to fill a hole this year, not to ride the bench for a year or two. That much is so damn true.

[sharpe1027]

Perhaps Snake jumped the boat a bit, yet I do believe TT is in danger in the near future IF and a big IF we don't make the playoffs this year. He might buy a year or two, but in that case M3 is gone for sure.

Definitely build through the draft...it's a great approach as far as cap issues and augmenting a solid roster of young guys making minimal salaries so you can pay your stars.

But Wist sees what Snake is saying...if we DON'T bolster the roster/upgrade with FA or trades..it's all a crapshoot in the draft. Now Snake likes the draft 10 fold, yet it seems TT's pattern is going BPA much of the time with safe/character picks...That's fine, but most of his picks aren't making much of difference. Hawk is exhibit A.

I have no prob. with the BPA available, yet what is the difference if it was a need like OT, DT, or DE? Not much. Just cuz that draftee is a need, doesn't mean he's much more likely to bust (just possibly not as good as the BPA). When the BPA busts it's the same...many 1st rounders bust. Yes, it's a crapshoot, but put your bets on a need (when you can't acquire your needs in FA or trades) instead of the BPA, when they both may bust equally. Also, those BPA's WON'T help us win more in 2009 at WR or RB (positions of strength) when we are so dire on both the OL and the DL. That's the point of this topic.

When the GM eschews 2 of the 3 routes (FA and trades) for acquiring "difference makers", then he MUST rely on the draft to get the elite players that make you a SB team. So far, other than Arod and Jennings, he's missed badly for elite players. That's the boat TT is on.

TT might go a decade yet, and I'm fine with that (but that means we are winning), but Snake is convinced that if he goes 6-10 again, he's close to done, as the Packer nation can't/won't stand for mediocrity when the Favre era won most EVERY year (maybe not SB's, but playoffs)...that shit keeps your job at GM. Playoffs...

TT is 1 for 4 so far. I'm not out to lynch him yet, but this is a damn ass critical draft for TT, cuz he makes it that way. TT does this to himself by not acquiring difference makers. As much as Snake hates Cutler, I think that was an awesome addition to a glaring need for their team that will make them a 10 win team for many seasons potentially.

And to finalize this post, TT does do safe picks (that's fine) but when you need an elite player with the first pick (as my take was his 1st rounders have been mostly underwhelming) and he needs to get us a stud immediately to start and help dominate. BPA in this draft will NOT do that this year. Dominant players win championships in the NFL, but we truly need one to fill a hole this year, not to ride the bench for a year or two. That much is so damn true.

Snake,

Just how good does a player have to be considered an elite player in your mind? Just how many of these elite players exist on other teams? Over what period of time were these elite players acquired? Looking back at past playoff teams, just how many of the guys on the teams were already established elite players?

A few points that I hope jump out at you from thinking about the above series of questions.

1.) If you define elite players as a very high level of play, even the successful teams have very few.

2.) I think you will find that elite players are acquired over a number of years, not all at once.

3.) Many players were not considered "elite" until after the team had success, which brings a classic chicken or the egg scenario.

Your analysis of the Packers falls short because it only considers players from the draft. Contrary to the widely repeated perception, the post-Sherman Packers have dipped into and found success in free agency.

Players on the Packers you failed to consider that some could plausibly hold out as being elite (let's not argue whether they are elite, they are at least good enough to discuss):

Pickett - Free agent.
Woodson - Free agent.
Harris - Resigned.
Kampman - Resigned.
Collins - Draft.
Grant - Trade.
Driver - Resigned.
Barnett - Resigned.

Solid Contributors:

Poppinga - Draft and Resigned.
Bigby - Free agent.
Chillar - Free agent.


Would you prefer that the Packers let their players make it all the way to free agency before they resigned them? If not, then maybe resigning their own should be, for all intents and purposes, considered a free agency signing.

Bottom line, I think the Packers have been more successful in Free Agency than many teams. Are there some teams more active, yes, but there are some that are less active and it should be about the success. I feel that many teams have been less successful in free agency.

I do not think the problems are as simple as "not enough free agents and trades," or "not enough play makers." If it were that simple, then there is no reason that the Packers should have sniffed the playoffs a year ago, yet there they were in the NFC championship game, a few plays from the SB.

While I too tend to get excited about new players, I think that human nature makes us feel that the "grass is greener." Logic seems to suggest otherwise.

[Gunakor]

but most of his picks aren't making much of difference. Hawk is exhibit A.

Let me clear this up. AJ Hawk is a significant upgrade at the position he has played since being drafted. Before Hawk was drafted we had Paris Lenon playing that OLB position. There is absolutely no question that Hawk is a much better LB than Lenon. Hawk has unquestionably made a difference compared to where we were before he was drafted. He just hasn't ascended to the elite All Pro level that many imagined he would in April 2006. He's still better than Lenon was in 2005.

A better exhibit A would be Justin Harrell.

[cheesner]

but most of his picks aren't making much of difference. Hawk is exhibit A.

Let me clear this up. AJ Hawk is a significant upgrade at the position he has played since being drafted. Before Hawk was drafted we had Paris Lenon playing that OLB position. There is absolutely no question that Hawk is a much better LB than Lenon. Hawk has unquestionably made a difference compared to where we were before he was drafted. He just hasn't ascended to the elite All Pro level that many imagined he would in April 2006. He's still better than Lenon was in 2005.

A better exhibit A would be Justin Harrell.

Also, if you look at the draft when Hawk was taken, there are perhaps only 2 players drafted after him that have had bigger impacts for their teams, Ngata and Cutler. To rip on TT for drafting Hawk is silly, there just weren't that many options available.

Harrell is the good counter-argument for saying that TT drafts safe. That was a very risky move that certainly has not paid off (to this point)

[cheesner]

. . .

Don't see how that ever lands us in a SB...

The Packers were a close OT loss away from the SB, just 2 years ago. (my how soon people forget)

TT has hit on more draft picks than SB champs, the Steelers, over the time span that TT has been in charge.

The Steelers use the same approach and have signed just a couple of mid-level FAs.


And for the record, I think that TT is closer to an extension than getting fired. The only way he leaves in the next 3 years is if he wants to go.

[SnakeLH2006]

. . .

Don't see how that ever lands us in a SB...

The Packers were a close OT loss away from the SB, just 2 years ago. (my how soon people forget)

TT has hit on more draft picks than SB champs, the Steelers, over the time span that TT has been in charge.

The Steelers use the same approach and have signed just a couple of mid-level FAs.


And for the record, I think that TT is closer to an extension than getting fired. The only way he leaves in the next 3 years is if he wants to go.

Not so much..Not to base on argument on The Sporting News, but their draft/analysis makes them the "best" print media for NFL draft analysis.

The latest Sporting News did any interesting rating/look at the last 5 drafts for EVERY team (although subjective it did list how someone is an elite player...Pro Bowls or massive stats for their position). The Steelers got a very high drafting grade for the past 5 years with 4 "elite" players...aka studs with far fewer draft picks than TT has had (49). With those 49 (by far the highest in the NFL over the last 5 years), Ted has hit 1 elite player.

This is the whole point. He's laying his eggs in 1 basket. He knows talent, but they gave him a C (and Snake couldn't argue that either...49 picks, 1 elite, and comparing it to other teams, many busted picks, many gone off the roster). So to stay objective, his drafting has been lackluster. Go read it, it's a good read, and Snake isn't here to bust TT's balls, just saying he really needs to get some "difference makers" through the draft, not just average players.

As far as an above post made about FA...yes Woodson is a beast...but all the resignings are OK too, but none of them "made us better"....we "already" had them. Great we locked them up, but so many NFL teams do that nowadays. I hate FA, but most teams lock up the core, WE "under TT" are no different than most all teams. The elite teams draft elite players to continue their playoff excursions...We do not under Ted.

That Sporting News article made several valid, factual posts about drafting in the last 5 years...TT is quite average at best at the draft regardless of his enormous amount of picks. The old adage is "you get what you pay for" and it's pretty true.

To stay on topic....Snake likes TT, but damn if he doesn't need to get a beast to do something for once as a rookie THIS YEAR. Wells, Crabtree...are/will be prob. great, but if he busts with a stud contributor with his lack of FA/trades, then we may go 6-10 again, as our "core" is about what it is...average, and not getting much better. Who then, is our stud (out of nowhere potential Pro-Bowler) from out last couple of years picks? Humor Snake, but the talent is not there..JH might be pretty good, but anyone else? This is the whole point, we need to get a stud-need pick this year, else we may go 1-5 under TT and miss the 2009 playoffs. Great teams draft studs. We don't do that.