Pickett at DE / Pickett gone after a year

[Gunakor]

Out of curiosity to define our differing views about this, how any downs/game do you expect Raji to play when the Packers are fully committed as a 3-4 team, and how many do you think the Packers will line up for without either Raji or his NT backup? How will they line up for those downs when neither are in?

If Harrell can get healthy, Jenkins can stay healthy, and Jolly can stay out of jail; the group of Pickett, Raji, Jenkins, Jolly, Harrell, someone 1 and someone 2 could be a very good rotation for all situations, yet use only 7 roster spots to do it. You might even be able to eliminate "someone 2" and do it with just 6 players.

I expect about a 70-30 split in time between Raji and his backup once the team is fully committed to being a 3-4 team. That gives his backup around 10 snaps per game IMO from the base, and maybe a couple more in situational duty such as short yardage and goal line defense. I don't expect his backup in for nickel or dime, pretty much ever. I don't see that player being on the field for more than 15 snaps per game. Raji has been described by MM and TT as a 3 down player, so I don't know if his backup will even get that much.

I am not suggesting to get rid of Pickett and forget to replace him. I'm not even suggesting to get rid of Pickett. I'm suggesting we resign Pickett at a lower salary. The money is the issue here, not his ability to be a solid backup for us. If Pickett can do the job for 5 million, and we can find someone else who can do it almost as good for 2 or 3 million, take the guy who can do it for 2 or 3 million unless Pickett agrees to renegotiate his contract at 2 or 3 million. If he does, he's a Packer.

And, like I said, you can offer incentives for playing time on top of his salary just in case he's asked to step in and play full time. Hell, you can make it worth a potential 5 million per season IF he meets those incentives (meaning Raji probably got hurt, and Pickett had to start for awhile). All I'm saying is I'd only offer a guy a starters salary if he is actually starting.

[Patler]

I expect about a 70-30 split in time between Raji and his backup once the team is fully committed to being a 3-4 team. That gives his backup around 10 snaps per game IMO from the base, and maybe a couple more in situational duty such as short yardage and goal line defense. I don't expect his backup in for nickel or dime, pretty much ever. I don't see that player being on the field for more than 15 snaps per game. Raji has been described by MM and TT as a 3 down player, so I don't know if his backup will even get that much.

Sorry, I guess I'm being a little dense, so help me out here. I'm not following your numbers and the translation from the 70%-30% split to the number of plays. Assuming a game has about 65 plays combined running and passing (not including punts, or fieldgoals):

How many of those 65 plays would you expect Raji to play without his backup?
How many would you expect the backup to play without Raji?
How many would you expect both to play, and what situations?
How many do you expect neither to play, and what situations?
How about the 5-6 punts and FGs, do you expect either to play on those?

Are you expecting Raji to play 50 snaps/game, or are you expecting a lot of plays with neither Raji nor his backup in the game?

[Gunakor]

I expect about a 70-30 split in time between Raji and his backup once the team is fully committed to being a 3-4 team. That gives his backup around 10 snaps per game IMO from the base, and maybe a couple more in situational duty such as short yardage and goal line defense. I don't expect his backup in for nickel or dime, pretty much ever. I don't see that player being on the field for more than 15 snaps per game. Raji has been described by MM and TT as a 3 down player, so I don't know if his backup will even get that much.

Sorry, I guess I'm being a little dense, so help me out here. I'm not following your numbers and the translation from the 70%-30% split to the number of plays. Assuming a game has about 65 plays combined running and passing (not including punts, or fieldgoals):

How many of those 65 plays would you expect Raji to play without his backup?
How many would you expect the backup to play without Raji?
How many would you expect both to play, and what situations?
How many do you expect neither to play, and what situations?
How about the 5-6 punts and FGs, do you expect either to play on those?

Are you expecting Raji to play 50 snaps/game, or are you expecting a lot of plays with neither Raji nor his backup in the game?

Well, the NT isn't going to be on the field for 65 snaps. Probably closer to around 45-50 snaps or so, I'd imagine. Out of those 50 snaps that a NT is on the field for, I'd expect Raji to be in for 35 or so. His backup the other 15.

But that doesn't mean Raji is limited to that, because he is described as a 3 down player. He can provide inside pass rush, so I think they'd line him up as an interior DL even in the nickel. So he would get more than the 35 or so snaps at NT alone. I really expect this kid to be on the field as often as they can get him into the game in a few years time. By 2011 he could very well be seeing 50 snaps a game or more, if MM and TT are to be believed that Raji can play 3 downs.

I don't expect very many defensive snaps at all with neither of them, but to be honest, looking forward I don't expect very many snaps without Raji himself on the field. He's a very unique physical specimen oozing with talent and ability.

For the record, does anyone know what our nickel and dime formations will look like? Will nickel be a 4-2 alignment or a 2-4? 4-2, both are on the field. 2-4, maybe Raji, maybe not. I'm not sure. That also will have a lot to do with how often Raji's backup sees the field.

Other than that, maybe his backup could be a valuable contributor in FG's (hadn't thought about those snaps) and otherwise just short yardage and goal line when Dom stacks the line with bigs.

[RashanGary]

If it were me, I'd start Pickett. I'd play Pickett in most base downs and in all goalline.

I'd play Raji in all nickle (as a pass rusher inside), all goalline (as the extra lineman) and some base (to fill in some extra snaps so he and Pickett get even playing time). Raji should play a lot of snaps, I just think it would be a waste to use him as a space eater this early in his career. Right now he can get after the QB. There is no way he shoudl play over 70% of hte snaps. He and Pickett can each play about 70% right now. Some at end, some at NT and some as traditional DT's in a 4-3 alignment.

[RashanGary]

And for the record, anyone who thinks we have a log jam at NT, that is going to make someone good sit on the bench is crazy and has no clue how defensive line rotations work

Sorry, I had to go there. It's true.

[Gunakor]

If it were me, I'd start Pickett. I'd play Pickett in most base downs and in all goalline.

I'd play Raji in all nickle (as a pass rusher inside), all goalline (as the extra lineman) and some base (to fill in some extra snaps so he and Pickett get even playing time). Raji should play a lot of snaps, I just think it would be a waste to use him as a space eater this early in his career. Right now he can get after the QB. There is no way he shoudl play over 70% of hte snaps. He and Pickett can each play about 70% right now. Some at end, some at NT and some as traditional DT's in a 4-3 alignment.

I agree, this year. But, again, we're not talking about this year. We are talking about a couple years down the road, when Pickett is due for free agency. Predict the future. That's what I'm doing, and I don't see Pickett as our starting NT a few years down the line.

I also don't see many 4-3 looks in a few years, if any at all. I think this team is going to fully commit to the 3-4 at some point in the very near future.

[Gunakor]

And for the record, anyone who thinks we have a log jam at NT, that is going to make someone good sit on the bench is crazy and has no clue how defensive line rotations work

Sorry, I had to go there. It's true.

You haven't been following. I don't think we have a log jam at NT. I think we have too much money invested there right now. I have no problem with resigning Pickett after his contract expires, but not at 5 million per year unless he's still starting.

[RashanGary]

In a 4-3 defense, I think you have 6 starting lineman. IN a 3-4 defense, you have 5 starting lineman as I see it.

If there is one area on a team that you can afford to put a few extra dollars in, it's the DL. Corey Williams wanted a big payday. When negotiations started, they ended almost immediately becuase CW wanted to get paid like the 8 sack per year DT he was (near the top of DT's). If Pickett thinks he's worth top dollar, I understand letting him go. 5 mil per year is not top dollar though. He's worth that, easy, and he'll play a lot whether he's a backup or starter. Who cares if it says starter by his name. If he plays the same amount of snaps he's impacting the game. People need to stop getting caught up in titles and look at the reality of it. The reality is more than 3 guys play a lot of snaps on the DL so you can't just pay 3 and think you're all set. I think we found that out last year when we tried to get by with 4.

[Gunakor]

In a 4-3 defense, I think you have 6 starting lineman. IN a 3-4 defense, you have 5 starting lineman as I see it.

If there is one area on a team that you can afford to put a few extra dollars in, it's the DL. Corey Williams wanted a big payday. When negotiations started, they ended almost immediately becuase CW wanted to get paid like the 8 sack per year DT he was (near the top of DT's). If Pickett thinks he's worth top dollar, I understand letting him go. 5 mil per year is not top dollar though. He's worth that, easy, and he'll play a lot whether he's a backup or starter. Who cares if it says starter by his name. If he plays the same amount of snaps he's impacting the game. People need to stop getting caught up in titles and look at the reality of it. The reality is more than 3 guys play a lot of snaps on the DL.

I clearly laid out how I expect the snaps to be distributed between him and Pickett earlier in the thread. I expect Raji will be in on every running down and many passing downs in a few years. This comes both from his combination of size and agility and explosiveness, and comments from MM and TT that Raji is expected to be a 3 down player.

It's not about title. It is about the number of snaps. I honestly do not think Pickett will be getting the same number of snaps a few years from now as he will be this year. As his total snaps decrease going forward, so will his value to us. I could be wrong, but that's what I think.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Gotcha Gunakor, you are speaking about several seasons for now in regards to the PT. I originally thought you were talking about this coming season. I'm raking what your making now my man.

[Gunakor]

Gotcha Gunakor, you are speaking about several seasons for now in regards to the PT. I originally thought you were talking about this coming season. I'm raking what your making now my man.

Right. Pickett isn't going anywhere this season anyways. No sense arguing about his salary after an extension before we've even heard whispers of an extension in the works anyway. Let's see if he even wants to be here after his contract expires first before arguing about how much money he should be making.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Presser with Matthews and Raji. Raji said the coaches will have him play NT and DE. Could be a situation similar to Baltimore with Gregg and Ngata--while Pickett is here.

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/ic/blogs/insider/index.shtml

Raji: Talked with d-line coach today, talked about where playing. Will play some nose tackle, some defensive end.