Surprising preseason rankings from Peter King

[Dabaddestbear]

I like reading Peter King for his access to the players and some of his insights, but he's terrible as a prognosticator or scout. He's too fanboyish and a little too much East Coast bias for me.

I have trouble imagining 12 wins for CHI. Cutler is a great talent, but he hasn't been much of a winner in college or the pros thus far. He upgrades the offense, but he had a stronger supporting cast in DEN than he does now. When Urlacher tells him to STFU, will he? Does he cry to his agent?

Meh. MIN and GB aren't gonna roll over and give them 4 wins, and I think at #4 they're overrated.

Oh, and the man crush on Fav_e is a little annoying.

Whatever, I think these ratings will be far, far off from reality.

This win lost column thing per QB debate is tiring. This is a team sport, not a one on one contest. In that case Rodgers was crap last year since HE only got 6 wins.

Cutler is a piece to the puzzle the Bears needed. They no longer have to look for a QB EVERY damn season, and can now concentrate on other areas of the team unlike before. JA has did a good job this off season, and it will show when the season starts.

[hoosier]

Let them hype the Bears. They deserve the additional pressure having gambled away so many picks this year.

They gave up two picks over 3 years. Yep thats really a whole lot.

The Bears gave up three picks in two years: first rounders in 2009 and 2010, and a third 2009. They also got back a five from Denver in 2009. Given how the Bears first round picks have turned out lately, you could argue they didn't lose very much in giving those picks to Denver.

Well the third doesnt count since it was actually traded for their 5th.

And I agree the Bears draft picks up that high has not been impressive, but overall as a drafter he has done much better than the Packers GM TT.

Let's compare their records since 2005 when TT became GM for the Packers. In that time Angelo's successful picks for the Bears have included Forte, Hester and Olsen. Am I forgetting any other obvious successes? Mark Anderson looked great his first year but seems to have regressed since then, but since he was a late round pick I guess we can include him. That's four. Thompson's clear successes include Jennings, Rodgers, Collins, Hawk. There are also a bunch who seem to have potential but aren't yet fully established: Colledge, Spitz (you could arguably call these two successes), Jones, Nelson, Jackson, Blackmon.

My take is that Thompson has had as good or better success ratio with his picks, and that his biggest advantage over Angelo is that he has consistently accumulated more picks--and thus a bigger, deeper group of young players ready to emerge. The Bears, by contrast, have an aging core group of players with relatively few good up and coming players (Cutler, Forte, maybe Olsen).

[cheesner]

Okay, here is Peter King's list from last year.

1. New England.
2. Indianapolis.
3. Jacksonville
4. Dallas
5. San Diego.
6. New York Giants
7. Minnesota.
8. Green Bay.
9. Cleveland.
10. Carolina.
11. Philadelphia.
12. Pittsburgh.
13. Buffalo.
14. New York Jets.
15. Seattle.
16. New Orleans.
17. Tampa Bay
18. Washington.
19. Houston.
20. Tennessee.
21. Arizona.
22. Baltimore
23. Denver
24. Cincinnati.
25. Chicago.
26. Detroit.
27. Miami.
28. San Francisco.
29. St. Louis.
30. Oakland.
31. Kansas City
32. Atlanta

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/peter_king/05/02/rankings/index.html

In his top 10, 6 missed the playoffs, 3 were drafting in the top 9, and 2 teams not in the top 10? the two superbowl teams.

[Bossman641]

Just curious DBB, but where do you see the Bears' 12 wins coming from?

@ GB
Pitt
@ Sea
Det
BYE
@ Atl
@ Cin
Cle
Ari
@ SF
Phi
@ Min
Stl
GB
@ Bal
Min
@ Det

[Partial]

I would put the rankings as follows:
Minn
GB/Chicago push

[Dabaddestbear]

Let them hype the Bears. They deserve the additional pressure having gambled away so many picks this year.

They gave up two picks over 3 years. Yep thats really a whole lot.

The Bears gave up three picks in two years: first rounders in 2009 and 2010, and a third 2009. They also got back a five from Denver in 2009. Given how the Bears first round picks have turned out lately, you could argue they didn't lose very much in giving those picks to Denver.

Well the third doesnt count since it was actually traded for their 5th.

And I agree the Bears draft picks up that high has not been impressive, but overall as a drafter he has done much better than the Packers GM TT.

Let's compare their records since 2005 when TT became GM for the Packers. In that time Angelo's successful picks for the Bears have included Forte, Hester and Olsen. Am I forgetting any other obvious successes? Mark Anderson looked great his first year but seems to have regressed since then, but since he was a late round pick I guess we can include him. That's four. Thompson's clear successes include Jennings, Rodgers, Collins, Hawk. There are also a bunch who seem to have potential but aren't yet fully established: Colledge, Spitz (you could arguably call these two successes), Jones, Nelson, Jackson, Blackmon.

My take is that Thompson has had as good or better success ratio with his picks, and that his biggest advantage over Angelo is that he has consistently accumulated more picks--and thus a bigger, deeper group of young players ready to emerge. The Bears, by contrast, have an aging core group of players with relatively few good up and coming players (Cutler, Forte, maybe Olsen).

Ted Thompson has picked 43 players in his four drafts as general manager of the Green Bay Packers, and while 10 remain regular starters, only one – safety Nick Collins (a second-round pick in 2005) has made the Pro-Bowl.

A break down of TT picks.....courtesy of a buddy of mine.
Brett Swain (seventh round, 2008): Drafted to be a Wes Welker-type receiver but couldn’t catch the ball and spent last season on the practice squad.

Justin Harrell (first round, 2007): Perhaps Thompson’s worst pick. Defensive tackle taken 16th overall has played in just 13 games in two years largely due to injuries, which were a concern when he came out of college.

Brandon Jackson (second round, 2007): Decent third-down running back but hasn’t shown anything to make anyone think he can be a full-time, every-down back, which second-round picks should be.

Aaron Rouse (third round, 2007): Has made a few big plays but gives up way too many and has yet to challenge for the starting safety spot next to Collins.

Allen Barbre (fourth round, 2007): Went into training camp last season battling with Colledge for a starting guard spot but never provided much competition.

David Clowney (fifth round, 2007): Fifth rounders should at least make the team, but this receiver couldn’t. He’s with the Jets now but still hasn’t done anything.

Desmond Bishop (sixth round, 2007): Has been a contributor on special teams but hasn’t excelled in his few opportunities at linebacker.

DeShawn Wynn (seventh round, 2007): Production hasn’t been the problem (he has a 5.4-yard rushing average) but staying healthy has been.

Clark Harris (seventh round, 2007): Tight end spent less than two weeks on the practice squad as a rookie but eventually hooked on with the Texans as a long snapper.

A.J. Hawk (first round, 2006): Not a bad player but not what you’d expect from the fifth overall pick in the draft. If injuries were the problem last season, then still has a chance to be the impact player you’re supposed to get at the top of the draft.

Abdul Hodge (third round, 2006): Knee injuries derailed his career but he was an unproductive linebacker even before that. Caught on with the Bengals last season.

Cory Rodgers (fourth round, 2006): See David Clowney, only worse. The highest-picked player not to make the team under Thompson. Later played in the CFL.

Ingle Martin (fifth round, 2006): Third-stringer for a year who has since spent time on the Titans’ practice squad. Doesn’t look like an NFL starter.

Tony Moll (fifth round, 2006): Had several chances to win starting jobs at multiple positions on the offensive line but lost out every time.

Tyrone Culver (sixth round, 2006): Played on special teams as a rookie, spent 2007 on injured reserve and then was released.

Dave Tollefson (seventh round, 2006): Spent rookie season on the practice squad but eventually landed with the Giants in 2007 and played in Super Bowl XLII.
================================================== ===
Angelo's probowl players

Lance briggs charles tillman, nathan vasher tommie harris, devin hester, Alex Brown (probowl alternate)

ted thompsons:

nick collins

angelo record since teddy been in greenbay 40-26

teddy's record- 21-33

Angelo's done a better job both by wins( and w's are what matter, right?) or once again will the parmeter switch.. now that shows packers and terrible teddy in a bad light.

[Spaulding]

I like reading Peter King for his access to the players and some of his insights, but he's terrible as a prognosticator or scout. He's too fanboyish and a little too much East Coast bias for me.

I have trouble imagining 12 wins for CHI. Cutler is a great talent, but he hasn't been much of a winner in college or the pros thus far. He upgrades the offense, but he had a stronger supporting cast in DEN than he does now. When Urlacher tells him to STFU, will he? Does he cry to his agent?

Meh. MIN and GB aren't gonna roll over and give them 4 wins, and I think at #4 they're overrated.

Oh, and the man crush on Fav_e is a little annoying.

Whatever, I think these ratings will be far, far off from reality.

This win lost column thing per QB debate is tiring. This is a team sport, not a one on one contest. In that case Rodgers was crap last year since HE only got 6 wins.

Cutler is a piece to the puzzle the Bears needed. They no longer have to look for a QB EVERY damn season, and can now concentrate on other areas of the team unlike before. JA has did a good job this off season, and it will show when the season starts.

No offense but you have to be a little bit on the homer side to see 12 wins for the Bears. This is a team that continues to regress defensively but I do agree that with the signing of Cutler it does legitimize the offense a bit.

The big question is does the addition of Cutler but lack of proven #1 receiver (Hester is still raw) offset the likely continued decline defensively?

Playing Hester full time at WR seems to have reduced his impact on special teams (or at least it did last year - is this a trend or abberation?).

Brian needs to stay healthy on defense and Tommie needs to return to form for this team to really be a 10+ win team (well that and avoiding the injury bug which seems to affect the Bears secondary every other year).

I see a much more competitive NFC North with the Bears/Vikes/Pack all having an equal shot at winning the division. Twelve wins though? Just don't see it. 10-6 will probably win the division this year.

[Partial]

Just curious DBB, but where do you see the Bears' 12 wins coming from?

@ GB
Pitt
@ Sea
Det
BYE
@ Atl
@ Cin
Cle
Ari
@ SF
Phi
@ Min
Stl
GB
@ Bal
Min
@ Det

They only have 5 tough games imo. With a little luck and good health its possible I guess.
@bal loss
@minn loss
pitt loss
philly loss
@atl - tossup
ari - tossup

[hoosier]

Ted Thompson has picked 43 players in his four drafts as general manager of the Green Bay Packers, and while 10 remain regular starters, only one – safety Nick Collins (a second-round pick in 2005) has made the Pro-Bowl.

A break down of TT picks.....courtesy of a buddy of mine.
Brett Swain (seventh round, 2008): Drafted to be a Wes Welker-type receiver but couldn’t catch the ball and spent last season on the practice squad.

Justin Harrell (first round, 2007): Perhaps Thompson’s worst pick. Defensive tackle taken 16th overall has played in just 13 games in two years largely due to injuries, which were a concern when he came out of college.

Brandon Jackson (second round, 2007): Decent third-down running back but hasn’t shown anything to make anyone think he can be a full-time, every-down back, which second-round picks should be.

Aaron Rouse (third round, 2007): Has made a few big plays but gives up way too many and has yet to challenge for the starting safety spot next to Collins.

Allen Barbre (fourth round, 2007): Went into training camp last season battling with Colledge for a starting guard spot but never provided much competition.

David Clowney (fifth round, 2007): Fifth rounders should at least make the team, but this receiver couldn’t. He’s with the Jets now but still hasn’t done anything.

Desmond Bishop (sixth round, 2007): Has been a contributor on special teams but hasn’t excelled in his few opportunities at linebacker.

DeShawn Wynn (seventh round, 2007): Production hasn’t been the problem (he has a 5.4-yard rushing average) but staying healthy has been.

Clark Harris (seventh round, 2007): Tight end spent less than two weeks on the practice squad as a rookie but eventually hooked on with the Texans as a long snapper.

A.J. Hawk (first round, 2006): Not a bad player but not what you’d expect from the fifth overall pick in the draft. If injuries were the problem last season, then still has a chance to be the impact player you’re supposed to get at the top of the draft.

Abdul Hodge (third round, 2006): Knee injuries derailed his career but he was an unproductive linebacker even before that. Caught on with the Bengals last season.

Cory Rodgers (fourth round, 2006): See David Clowney, only worse. The highest-picked player not to make the team under Thompson. Later played in the CFL.

Ingle Martin (fifth round, 2006): Third-stringer for a year who has since spent time on the Titans’ practice squad. Doesn’t look like an NFL starter.

Tony Moll (fifth round, 2006): Had several chances to win starting jobs at multiple positions on the offensive line but lost out every time.

Tyrone Culver (sixth round, 2006): Played on special teams as a rookie, spent 2007 on injured reserve and then was released.

Dave Tollefson (seventh round, 2006): Spent rookie season on the practice squad but eventually landed with the Giants in 2007 and played in Super Bowl XLII.
================================================== ===
Angelo's probowl players

Lance briggs charles tillman, nathan vasher tommie harris, devin hester, Alex Brown (probowl alternate)

ted thompsons:

nick collins

angelo record since teddy been in greenbay 40-26

teddy's record- 21-33

Angelo's done a better job both by wins( and w's are what matter, right?) or once again will the parmeter switch.. now that shows packers and terrible teddy in a bad light.

I thought we were talking about who's done a better job of drafting. That's certainly related to winning but they're not the same thing. Who's switching parameters again?

One problem with your "comparison" is that you're including guys like Briggs, Harris and Brown who were drafted before 2005. If you want to do that you'll have to include guys the Seahawks drafted before '05 as well, guys like Hutchinson, Alexander, Jackson, Trufant, Hamlin, Lucas. You want to extend the comparison? I think things will look even worse for Angelo if you do.

Your "breakdown" of TT's drafts is pretty meaningless since it only focuses on picks that haven't worked out as well as originally hoped. You even include the 7th rounders that were cut! Since every team has those, you're not going to learn much from looking at just them. Let me just say I'm glad you never graded one of my school projects.

[Bossman641]

Come on DBB, you're better than that.

Angelo has been the GM since 2001, TT since 2005.

Looking at Angelo's drafts over the same time frame, his picks have been pretty shitty. Angelo has one Pro Bowl player from the same period and he made it as a returner.

2008
Rnd Name College Note
1 Chris Williams Vanderbilt
2 Matt Forte Tulane
3 Earl Bennett Vanderbilt
3 Marcus Harrison Arkansas
4 Craig Steltz Louisiana State
5 Zackary Bowman Nebraska
5 Kellen Davis Michigan State
7 Ervin Baldwin Michigan State
7 Chester Adams Georgia
7 Joey LaRocque Oregon State
7 Kirk Barton Ohio State
7 Marcus Monk Arkansas

2007
Rnd Name College Note
1 Greg Olsen Miami (Fla.)
2 Dan Bazuin Central Michigan
3 Garrett Wolfe Northern Illinois
3 Michael Okwo Stanford
4 Josh Beekman Boston College
5 Kevin Payne Louisiana-Monroe
5 Corey Graham New Hampshire
7 Trumaine McBride Mississippi
7 Aaron Brant Iowa State

2006
Rnd Name College Note
2 Danieal Manning Abilene Christian
2 Devin Hester Miami (FL)
3 Dusty Dvoracek Oklahoma
4 Jamar Williams Arizona State
5 Mark Anderson Alabama
6 J.D. Runnels Oklahoma
6 Tyler Reed Penn State

2005
Rnd Name College Note
1 Cedric Benson Texas
2 Mark Bradley Oklahoma
4 Kyle Orton Purdue
5 Airese Currie Clemson
6 Chris Harris Louisiana-Monroe
7 Rodriques Wilson South Carolina

[Packnut]

Rankings

I would put the rankings as follows:
Minn
GB/Chicago push

Agreed. All 3 are equal right now. Really, IF you want to argue putting one team slightly ahead, it would be the Vikes with a proven run stop D and a proven run game.

[Bossman641]

Just curious DBB, but where do you see the Bears' 12 wins coming from?

@ GB
Pitt
@ Sea
Det
BYE
@ Atl
@ Cin
Cle
Ari
@ SF
Phi
@ Min
Stl
GB
@ Bal
Min
@ Det

They only have 5 tough games imo. With a little luck and good health its possible I guess.
@bal loss
@minn loss
pitt loss
philly loss
@atl - tossup
ari - tossup

Count me a homer but I'd include both Packer games as tough as well.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I really don't get the Bears at #4. Sure they got Cutler but they still have poor WRs and an OL that isn't that great. I think the defense is fairly overrated and no way they are a 12 win team.

Umm, their offensive line was better than the Packers last year. And they improved that. And who knows how poor the WR's will be since their will be new starters outside of Hester.

Umm, no they weren't.

Per Football Outsiders:
Run blocking - Chi 24th, GB 18th
Pass blocking - Chi 11th, GB 14th

I dare say that overall, the GB OL was better than the Bears last year.

As far as WRs go, they have some of the poorest in the NFL.

[Partial]

Count me a homer but I'd include both Packer games as tough as well.

I would call you a homer because the Bears have had a great level of success again the Packers in their recent history. I think they'll split.

[cpk1994]

Just curious DBB, but where do you see the Bears' 12 wins coming from?

@ GB
Pitt
@ Sea
Det
BYE
@ Atl
@ Cin
Cle
Ari
@ SF
Phi
@ Min
Stl
GB
@ Bal
Min
@ Det

They only have 5 tough games imo. With a little luck and good health its possible I guess.
@bal loss
@minn loss
pitt loss
philly loss
@atl - tossup
ari - tossup

Count me a homer but I'd include both Packer games as tough as well.

You don't have to be a homer to see the GB-Bears games will be tough. The PAckers were one blocked FG from sweeping the Bears. Cutler isn't going to make that big a difference by himself.

THe reason Partial doesn't is simple. Roadgers hater + man-crush on Cutler = Pacxkers not tough in Partial's book.