"Patience While the Packers Grow Up"

[vince]

I think Collins biggest gripe may be that he's in the last year of his deal, and its his turn. $3M isn't bad for a safety that's performed the way he has. A modest per year increase could be secondary to cashing in on the accompanying signing bonus from his perspective.

Maybe, but I think he also wants to get as much jack as he can. $ 3 mil. a year won't cut it for a new deal.

His new buddy with whom pb compared Collins' production just inked a $7+ mil./yr. deal for 5 years with $15.5 mil guaranteed. He'll probably sign for less than that (he probably will have to if he wants to remain a Packer), but I'd say that's the neighborhood his agent is camped out in right now.

[vince]

Thank you Lurk. You skipped Pickett though… How do you see that playing out?

That's a wait and see, IMO. Personally, I think that the reason they've had Raji at DE and not at the Nose is that he's not ready to play NT in the NFL. He's got the body-type for it, but not the mindset or the experience. DE is, in a certain sense "easier", as he's going to see fewer complicated blocking schemes, and he'll be playing in a spot where his natural leverage is more of an advantage. It's definitely less of an adjustment for Raji who usually played in the B-gap in college, as he'll be lining up maybe a foot from where he's used to lining up (and "contain" isn't one of his jobs.)

Pickett is definitely a guy you feel okay about playing in the A-Gap, but he's not going to be a pro-bowler or a superstar.

So I think they evaluate the following things:
1) How ready is Raji to play the NT spot?
2) How effective is the Raji/Pickett tandem at DE/NT in the base defense?
3) How are we doing for depth at DE/NT?

I think that the more ready Raji is to play NT (which will be his eventual position) and the less effective having Raji playing next to Pickett, the better odds we have of just letting Pickett walk. We have a lot more guys with a shot to make the roster than can play DE (Jolly, Jenkins, Raji, Harrell, Malone, Wynn, Montgomery) than we do to play NT (Pickett, Raji, Harrell). Muhtadi and Toribio are purely PS players at this point. Generally, you want to have 4 DEs, 2 NTs, and one guy who can play both DE and NT for your DL spots. So if Muhtadi or Toribio progresses well on the PS this year, and both Raji and Harrell play well, Pickett may be gone.

Also, working in favor of the "Pickett is gone" theory is that the 2010 draft appears to be absolutely stacked with DT talent. Depending on various unpredictable draft factors, Pickett may be expendable if Raji is ready to start at the nose; as the NT is already a specialist position and the backup usually doesn't see a lot of play. At the very least, the number of quality DTs in the draft probably hurts Pickett's value on the open market.

If we do decide to keep Pickett, I could see his cap number being in the $5-$6 million range, a la Marcus Stroud or Kris Jenkins ($2-3 million or so signing bonus, and a salary that jumps around plus some incentives), and I believe his cap number last year was $3 million, but I don't know what it was for this year.

All Pickett does is his job, and he does it pretty effectively. Capers repeatedly says that stopping the run is the first requirement for defensive success. I think you lock him in as the foundation of the D and then you can only improve from there. His job, while it's a specialist position, is too important to be caught with your pants down on. One injury there can dramatically impact the effectiveness of the defense if you don't have adequate depth at NT. The practice squad guys would have to make quite an impression to inject enough confidence to think they will do what Pickett has demonstrated the ability to do. They haven't demonstrated anything on Sunday which would remotely suggest Pickett is expendable without risk of setback. Draft picks, no matter how many accolades they have in college, to anchor the D right away? That's pretty risky too IMO.

[Lurker64]

What may also be interesting for the Collins negotiation is that the upcoming 2010 draft will be likely the deepest year ever for safeties (for some reason). The Packers probably won't have a shot at one of the elite talents like Eric Berry or Taylor Mays, but this year you should be able to get a good safety as late as the fourth round, there's so much talent at that position.

I wonder how outrageous Collins's demands would have to be before Thompson considers drafting a replacement next year.

[cheesner]

I have been wondering lately about the looming CBA negotiations and how this will affect the Packers (and other teams) from extending too many of their young players.

If the NFL goes to an uncapped year, all players who would become free agents for the first time, will have up to 3 more years to wait. These players, and the younger players, make up more than half of the NFL and can be the deciding factor in a vote for a CBA. Not becoming FAs will cost most of these players a significant amount of money. That is some serious leverage for the NFL owners to use to get a very favorable CBA approved.

I am predicting this: each team will only extend 1 or 2 players, like Jennings, who are about to become FAs. A new CBA will be agreed to sometime early in this upcoming football season. There will then be a bunch of extensions done at that point. I am not suggestion collusion or a conspiracy, it just makes too much sense for every team owner to see this advantage.

[pbmax]

I am of two minds about Pickett. He is clearly more movable than, say, Grady Jackson, but he is also able to move down the line. But last year Pickett got pushed around quite a bit by double teams. It might have been his bad wing, but I wouldn't be shocked if Ryan's next contract has a low ceiling unless he regains prior form.

Collins' contract will be a bet; will he continue to be the player from last season or will he revert in the new D? Of all the starters except for maybe Jolly, he is the one who has the most inconsistent career track. The positive for Collins is that his most recent play was his highest. I also think a deal for him this year will be at least a level below Wilson. If he duplicates 2008 results in '09, then Wilson will be the market.

[pbmax]

...
If the NFL goes to an uncapped year, all players who would become free agents for the first time, will have up to 3 more years to wait....

I think for UFA, the wait is 2 years. It currently is after year 4, it will be after year six in 2010. In 2011, all bets are off.

[ThunderDan]

Collins' contract will be a bet; will he continue to be the player from last season or will he revert in the new D? Of all the starters except for maybe Jolly, he is the one who has the most inconsistent career track. The positive for Collins is that his most recent play was his highest. I also think a deal for him this year will be at least a level below Wilson. If he duplicates 2008 results in '09, then Wilson will be the market.

Collins reminds me a lot of Sharper. Really didn't show up to start, than "boom" played well in his contract year. After Sharper sign his big deal it felt to me he went back more to his old play level.

I hope Collins has a great 2009 gets extended during the year and everyone is happy.

[woodbuck27]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract.

I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....

Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.

I was sure we played in 16 games in 2008 and no way were we as good as 6-9, maybe more like 6-10.

Thanks for picking that up. I corrected that post.

[cpk1994]

Re: BS

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract.

I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....

Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.

Brett doesn't play defense of special teams. You know, the units that went from top 10 to bottom 10. Favre wasn't the sole reason for 2007. That is pure BS Favre cult propaganda.

The flip side of your BS ANTI-Favre cult propaganda.......

How is that propaganda. The defense and special teams dropped off dramitcally from 2007 to 2008. Those are facts. But we shouldn't let facts get in the way of kissing Favre's ass now shoud we?

[vince]

I am of two minds about Pickett. He is clearly more movable than, say, Grady Jackson, but he is also able to move down the line. But last year Pickett got pushed around quite a bit by double teams. It might have been his bad wing, but I wouldn't be shocked if Ryan's next contract has a low ceiling unless he regains prior form.

Collins' contract will be a bet; will he continue to be the player from last season or will he revert in the new D? Of all the starters except for maybe Jolly, he is the one who has the most inconsistent career track. The positive for Collins is that his most recent play was his highest. I also think a deal for him this year will be at least a level below Wilson. If he duplicates 2008 results in '09, then Wilson will be the market.

I'm with Lurker in that I have a bad feeling about the Collins situation. If you watch his most recent interview on Packers.com, he's clearly distraught over his situation already. It looks like he will be an important piece of the puzzle this year, and I've already said I agree with the wait-and-see approach with him, but this contract situation seems like it could continue to negatively impact him and ultimately affect his play, especially if he holds out and the Packers take a hardline stance.

With his enhanced role and inconsistent history in guiding the DBs in a simpler scheme, he needs to be absolutely 100% prepared and mentally in the game. If he's not, it becomes more likely we'll see the early version of Nick Collins and miscommunications could occur, and the entire team would suffer. That would upset him even more as his negotiating leverage drops due to inconstent play. His situation could snowball.

Like ThunderDan says, here's hoping none of that happens.

[ND72]

From what I've read this is kind of dumb...

#1 - How the Packers do on the field this year has more to do with Mike McCarthy, than Ted Thompson... lets make that clear.

#2 - It was how the Packers did in 2007, than how Brett did in 2007. It bothers me to no end how great we were that year because of Brett. Ok then, in Sherman's final year here, I completely blame everything on that idiot then, and she should have retired then unretired, then retired, then unretired, and played his shitty soap opera game then.

[Scott Campbell]

I think Collins biggest gripe may be that he's in the last year of his deal, and its his turn. $3M isn't bad for a safety that's performed the way he has. A modest per year increase could be secondary to cashing in on the accompanying signing bonus from his perspective.

Maybe, but I think he also wants to get as much jack as he can. $ 3 mil. a year won't cut it for a new deal.

His new buddy with whom pb compared Collins' production just inked a $7+ mil./yr. deal for 5 years with $15.5 mil guaranteed. He'll probably sign for less than that (he probably will have to if he wants to remain a Packer), but I'd say that's the neighborhood his agent is camped out in right now.

At $7M per year, I say sign and trade. Or tag and trade. He's not worth it.

[Waldo]

I think that Colledge's contract will be more related to Jake Scott's contract than Chris Snee. I'm thinking somewhere in the 4-5M range for him, probably closer to 5. Spitz will be a lot cheaper, C/G's that aren't elite G's don't make close to what a T/G that can play LT makes.

I don't think Ted is going to keep Collins unless Collins signs cheap. I don't think that he values S too highly. Ted let Williams get away when his flashy stat #'s necessitated a contract much larger than his actual ability, I think that Collins is in exactly the same boat with int's and TD's.

The roster has a lot of money sinks that can be freed up easily (Harris, Poppinga, Chillar, Clifton, Wells, Grant, Driver represent 29M in cap space), I don't think that any are irreplacable if there is a draft prior to playing a game, given the current roster.

[vince]

At $7M per year, I say sign and trade. Or tag and trade. He's not worth it.

I agree, but $3 mil is probably too little. My sense is that the Packers feel like they don't really know what he's worth right now, or at least that this is the worst possible time to negotiate with him since he's coming off an anamolously productive year.

He's the big question in my mind as to whether he'll not only be able to sustain his performance in the new D, but whether he'll be a liability in it. How he approaches this training camp and early season will probably determine which way this goes, and the way he's approaching things thus far, he doesn't appear to be doing himself any favors.

[vince]

I think that Colledge's contract will be more related to Jake Scott's contract than Chris Snee. I'm thinking somewhere in the 4-5M range for him, probably closer to 5. Spitz will be a lot cheaper, C/G's that aren't elite G's don't make close to what a T/G that can play LT makes.

I don't think Ted is going to keep Collins unless Collins signs cheap. I don't think that he values S too highly. Ted let Williams get away when his flashy stat #'s necessitated a contract much larger than his actual ability, I think that Collins is in exactly the same boat with int's and TD's.

The roster has a lot of money sinks that can be freed up easily (Harris, Poppinga, Chillar, Clifton, Wells, Grant, Driver represent 29M in cap space), I don't think that any are irreplacable if there is a draft prior to playing a game, given the current roster.

I'll take that. A year ago, Scott signed for $4.75 mil/yr. for 4 years with TN. Today then, plugging Colledge in at $5 mil seems pretty reasonable.

Regarding veteran turnover to open up cap space, I'd say your list minus Grant is your veteran turnover in the next two years. Dropping Clifton's salary alone would open the space necessary to deal far more effectively with Kampman next year, assuming Kampman performs well this year, and that Cliffy returns to form comes out of training camp this year as the starting LT).

I know you're not a Grant fan Waldo, and he did have a disappointing year in my opinion, but when healthy, he's a perfect fit for this attack. Granted he doesn't have a lot of shake, but he's big, fast, and has good vision. I think he's a strong one-cut runner. At his age, experience and lack of wear-and-tear, along with his incentive-laden contract for the next 3 years or so, I don't see him going anywhere. He's virtually guaranteed to be paid to his performance. No more no less. As the line gels, I look for him to get his ypc up over 4.5 again. It was over 5 his first season, but only 3.9 last year. With a healthy hammy, he should have more burst this year to get through the first level and break some long ones like we saw his first year, but were noticably absent last season. One of our resident OTA scouts (JH) specifically mentioned that Grant stood out as looking exceptionally fast this year.

Driver is an interesting situation. He appears to have a strong work ethic and keeps himself in great shape, and he's never been a burner, so I think he's likely to maintain his skills to an extent that would warrant the extension of a year or two that he seems to want, but I'll be surprised if he gets it, given the abilities of the other guys whose play could very well demand more opportunities for themselves in the next couple years.