Aaron Rodgers - Best 4th Quarter QB In GB In Last Decade ?

[th87]

Wow is this a great discussion.

[Waldo]

I was reading through the CHFF (Cold Hard Football Facts) website, one thing they really stress are quality stats (that is things that affect the outcome of games). Their biggest stat is adj passing YPA, it is pretty telling too, it is an excellent predictor of success, both of good seasons, and the team that has a greater adj YPA typically wins the game.

However just looking at it, there is an error IMO. The stats they use are att, yds, sacks, yards. I think that scrambles and yds have to be added in as well, as they typically are intended to be passes (though sneaks are in there as well, I thing the adj ypa is more accurate with a few sneaks added in, than it is with sacks and passing only, skipping on the scrambles).

The historical average is around 6.8 ypa for the top 15 QB's each season (I would guess with scrambles added in, that average dips to ~6.6 YPA). Good seasons are 7 ypa or better, great seasons are 8 ypa or better, legendary are 9 ypa or better.

How did Aaron do?

His season average is 6.4. The first half of the season he averaged 6.4. The second half of the season he average 6.4. With the yearly average of the top 15 QB's being roughly 6.8, AR is just under average for the top 15 (or about where many fans rank him, around 9 or 10).

By season quarter:
1st - 6.3
2nd - 6.5
3rd - 5.6
4th - 7.2

Per game (sorted best to worst performance):
HOU - 8.6
@ DET - 8.1
DET - 7.6
ATL - 7.5
CHI - 7.4
MIN - 7.1
@ JAC - 6.9
@ TEN - 6.4
IND - 6.3
@ CHI - 6.2
CAR - 6.1
@ SEA - 5.9
DAL - 5.3
@ NO - 5.3
@ TB - 4.8
@ MIN - 3.6
I think that it is fairly obvious, Aaron plays a lot better at home, with 5 of his top 6 performances being at Lambeau (the only away game in there was Detroit). Aaron played really good in December. 3 of his 5 worst games were in the first half of the season. He really only has two very poor games. He was consistently average (unless he played Det), really only having one really good game against somebody but Det. But his consistency counts for something, being above 6 ypa for 11 of 16 games is very impressive. After the 2nd Mn game he played very good, only the NO blowout where he tried to keep up, was even below 6 ypa.

How did our team do? After all, CHFF has found that on average, the team that wins the adj ypa battle wins the game (who cares how you run, historically accurate even back to the 50's, running just makes the passing game (hence ypa) more effective).

Well, just like all other indicators related to last season, we underperformed. Adj YPA says that we should have been 10-5-1. Our defense was actually very good by this measure almost all year, aside from a 3 game stretch.

Net (GB ypa - OPP ypa):
Det - 5.0 W
Chi - 3.0 W
Det - 2.8 W
Sea - 2.5 W
Mn - 1.9 W
Tn - 1.9 L
Chi - 1.8 L
Ind - 1.0 W
Atl - 0.5 L
Jax - 0.4 L
Tam - 0.0 L
Hou - -0.7 L
Mn - -0.9 L
Dal - -1.4 L
Car - -2.0 L
NO - -6.1 L
Our defense game up on average 5.7 adj ypa, though for a 3 game span (NO, Car, Hou) it was over 8.0 ypa, and NO was 11.4 ypa. There is no winning a game like that. Our defense gave up over 6 ypa only 6 times all season (Dal, Atl, NO, Car, Hou, Jax). It is crazy (and sucks) that Aaron and his 11 games better than 6 ypa didn't win more.

Again, just like all the other indicators that came before, cannot explain why the Packers sucked in '08. By the statistics and all of CHFF's research, we should have been 10-5-1.

Never trade the guy on the cover of Madden.

[MOBB DEEP]

Never trade the guy on the cover of Madden.

lol

yeah, its SO hard for me to imagine pack going a weak 6-10 with lord favre at the helm

unfortunately, we will never know...and thats what stings so much - nfccg to losing every big game

but....forwards ever backwards never

i think minny will be 12-5 and pack 10-6 #1 wildcard and play again in semifinals with winner playing giants

[MJZiggy]

Never trade the guy on the cover of Madden.

lol

yeah, its SO hard for me to imagine pack going a weak 6-10 with lord favre at the helm

unfortunately, we will never know...and thats what stings so much - nfccg to losing every big game

Why is that hard for you to imagine. Favre did go 4-12 remember.

[Rastak]

hold on a minute...ty got banned?? WTF for? I'm sitting out until he is back in protest. He is a hopeless bleeding liberal, but he does contribute solid stuff quite often.

Anyway Ayn, thanx for picking up the slack. You know how I feel about the spelling and grammar police, so no need for me to respond really.

You must be thinking of a different Ty. The one that got banned jumps into threads to start shit mainly, rarely making solid points. Tries to be funny and outrageous by saying things to shock and insult. Rarely solid "stuff" in regards to football content.

Back on point, I still haven't seen a link to the stats mentioned by the OP. I think more than one person has asked.

[Waldo]

hold on a minute...ty got banned?? WTF for? I'm sitting out until he is back in protest. He is a hopeless bleeding liberal, but he does contribute solid stuff quite often.

Anyway Ayn, thanx for picking up the slack. You know how I feel about the spelling and grammar police, so no need for me to respond really.

You must be thinking of a different Ty. The one that got banned jumps into threads to start shit mainly, rarely making solid points. Tries to be funny and outrageous by saying things to shock and insult. Rarely solid "stuff" in regards to football content.

Back on point, I still haven't seen a link to the stats mentioned by the OP. I think more than one person has asked.

Read the thread closer. I posted it.

[Rastak]

hold on a minute...ty got banned?? WTF for? I'm sitting out until he is back in protest. He is a hopeless bleeding liberal, but he does contribute solid stuff quite often.

Anyway Ayn, thanx for picking up the slack. You know how I feel about the spelling and grammar police, so no need for me to respond really.

You must be thinking of a different Ty. The one that got banned jumps into threads to start shit mainly, rarely making solid points. Tries to be funny and outrageous by saying things to shock and insult. Rarely solid "stuff" in regards to football content.

Back on point, I still haven't seen a link to the stats mentioned by the OP. I think more than one person has asked.

Read the thread closer. I posted it.

Good man Waldo!

Was looking for the original guy to respond...although I did read most of you, Pater, PB and others excellent discussion. Just missed the link.

[hoosier]

Not real cool to badmouth posters who aren't able to defend themselves.

[Rastak]

Not real cool to badmouth posters who aren't able to defend themselves.

True. Even worse for one who always had to have the last word. I shall refrain from doing that going forward.

[Freak Out]

Help.

[Fritz]

What seemed frustrating about the slant to opposing defenses was that there was really not much way to get to the QB. It was that drop-step-throw rhythm and unlike those goofy receiver out things where the receiver just stands there at the line and the QB whips it to him, in a slant the receiver has a few yards down the field. But man, you have to be brave to catch a slant.

[SnakeLH2006]

Wow what a great thread! Anytime Waldo and Patler go head to head, it's a win-win. King-Kong vs. Godzilla in a statistical showdown without the insults. Soooo much better than the old cliche'd "Favre sucks, and so do you. Or, Brett is much better than that injury-prone wannabe Arod" BS that used to be. "So fire TT."

Snake is very happy to see some great threads like this once again. Excellent points all around from everyone. Bravo.

On point. QB rating is very important with QB's. Made a thread about it a year ago that got tons of hits, as Snake did a mathematical thesis/PowerPoint in 2002 in college about QB rating that showed trends (QB rating vs. winning %) in many aspects. Overall, there are instances where it doesn't work out. Arod in 2008 was excellent statistically, yet we didn't win much. Personally, that's not his fault overall, as the D really sank the ship, and those losses were really close for the most part.

To Waldo's point that 2008 for Arod/GB being a huge statistical glitch, being that we were much better I do agree wholeheartedly. And, hey, we are young and good in QB, and just netted BJ Raji for our poor record and Matthews for OLB. Woot! Times are looking up for the young bucks in QB. Go Pack.