Fosco's Team Rankings

[bobblehead]

Hmm...after running all the numbers if I make the 3 point adjustment for the home team these are the games that vegas has a big disparity with you.

Green Bay -14.2 actual -7
Vikings -1.4 actual + 4
Patriots (no home team) -22.3 actual -14
Bills -1.2 actual +7

Not sure what I'm going to do now Guess I'll swing by the casino in the morning and make my Raiders money line bet and then look at the pregame lines and decide. I'll likely end up putting $44 on each game above for fun. Hope I go 3-1

edit: or 4-0 with the vikings losing by 3

[Fosco33]

Sorry for the confusion. I don't consistently apply hfa and should pick either adjusting vegas lines to match with the stat lines or vice versa (or better explain my thought process). Sometimes I'll apply an away advantage (teams like Carolina from last year; or opponents that suck no matter where you play). Next week I'll try and post the adjustments.

The games you outlined do have potential. I like the Packers, Colts, Vikes, Bills, Falcons (weighting higher bets). I know you felt pretty good about the Raiders and after considering Sanchez has lost his confidence and Cotchery is questionable; Kris Jenkins is out for the year and Fargas actually got touches last week - I'll go with the Raiders. They've cost me winning a week ($180) a few weeks back so I'm gun shy.

Having to pick all the games (with gut intuition on Sunday morning)
Chicago, Packers, Chargers, Colts, Texans, Vikings, Patriots, Bills, Raiders, Saints, Falcons, Giants, Redskins. Only 6 teams will cover their spread (6/13) which is where you want to be. Now just cross fingers and crack a beer.

[MJZiggy]

Sorry for the confusion. I don't consistently apply hfa and should pick either adjusting vegas lines to match with the stat lines or vice versa (or better explain my thought process). Sometimes I'll apply an away advantage (teams like Carolina from last year; or opponents that suck no matter where you play). Next week I'll try and post the adjustments.

The games you outlined do have potential. I like the Packers, Colts, Vikes, Bills, Falcons (weighting higher bets). I know you felt pretty good about the Raiders and after considering Sanchez has lost his confidence and Cotchery is questionable; Kris Jenkins is out for the year and Fargas actually got touches last week - I'll go with the Raiders. They've cost me winning a week ($180) a few weeks back so I'm gun shy.

Having to pick all the games (with gut intuition on Sunday morning)
Chicago, Packers, Chargers, Colts, Texans, Vikings, Patriots, Bills, Raiders, Saints, Falcons, Giants, Redskins. Only 6 teams will cover their spread (6/13) which is where you want to be. Now just cross fingers and crack a beer.

Now you explain it, after Bobble's piddled away his life savings.

[bobblehead]

Actually I broke even on the day, but it was my pick of Oakland on the money line that cost me money, I went 3-1 with the games of Fosco's that I played.

By his rank/point system the Pack, NE, Bills, Vikes were the strong plays. I got my wish and went 3-1 with the vikes losing....although simply losing by 3 without the pick 6 would have been better as I would have been 4-0 (getting 4 points).

Overall the Picks you PM'd me went 8-3-1 with the Redskins losing atm so likley 8-4-1...still damn good picking. That is with the vegas line at game time.

As I told Fosco, I didn't like any games this week and wasn't betting my normal bets, but was putting $100 on the Raiders on the money line on a hunch (flying cross country, sanchez been razzed, Raiders DBacks are still money....I was wrong...BIG). I like to have action on games, it makes them interesting. I'm having a good season and thanks to the 3-1 I only lost about $40 yesterday total...that is small compared to my normal stakes.

Keep posting them Fosco, I'm interested to see how the rankings adjusted.

[bobblehead]

Bump.....Any chance on seeing the updated numbers Fosco?

[Waldo]

I love all the stat analysis like this.

I've got something totally different under the hood in the system I run (in my blog). Points only, net points (O scoring minus scoring D)

However it uses an engineering method to correct for strength of schedule for each team to near infinity. Basically instead of figuring out the per game average for each team (call it X and Y for offense and defense) using simple arithmetic, each offense X and defense Y instead is a variable that creates expected scores based on the matchups played, the entire set of X and Y for the league are set equal to each other (ΣX=ΣY), then the entire set of X and Y solved for iteratively so the results of the expected scores matches the set of actual scores with the lowest error possible.

The scoring O and scoring D then has the "yeah but" stripped from it, each stat is corrected for opponents (who are corrected for opponents, who are corrected for opponents, etc...).

I use it to do power rankings and other stuff, like a weekly updated strength of schedule, projected record, best/worst units, etc...

Thus far my power rankings are 73-30 straight up. Theoretically I could do spread calculations, next year perhaps.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Thus far my power rankings are 73-30 straight up. Theoretically I could do spread calculations, next year perhaps.

73-30 is pretty ordinary for straight up.

[Waldo]

Thus far my power rankings are 73-30 straight up. Theoretically I could do spread calculations, next year perhaps.

73-30 is pretty ordinary for straight up.

Power rankings or matchup calculations?

Most add a HFA. I'm beating many of the much more complicated (number of stats) systems out there straight up.

[Fosco33]

Bump.....Any chance on seeing the updated numbers Fosco?

Yes, I added some new metrics (point differential and yards gained/att vs. yards defened/att). And I'm cleaning up the methodology on HFA (going to adjust my summaries instead of the vegas lines - I took a look at years past and this was closer).

[Fosco33]

I love all the stat analysis like this.

I've got something totally different under the hood in the system I run (in my blog). Points only, net points (O scoring minus scoring D)

However it uses an engineering method to correct for strength of schedule for each team to near infinity. Basically instead of figuring out the per game average for each team (call it X and Y for offense and defense) using simple arithmetic, each offense X and defense Y instead is a variable that creates expected scores based on the matchups played, the entire set of X and Y for the league are set equal to each other (ΣX=ΣY), then the entire set of X and Y solved for iteratively so the results of the expected scores matches the set of actual scores with the lowest error possible.

The scoring O and scoring D then has the "yeah but" stripped from it, each stat is corrected for opponents (who are corrected for opponents, who are corrected for opponents, etc...).

I use it to do power rankings and other stuff, like a weekly updated strength of schedule, projected record, best/worst units, etc...

Thus far my power rankings are 73-30 straight up. Theoretically I could do spread calculations, next year perhaps.

Interesting. Where do you find updated SOS... I can only find preseason.

I was also considering a season summary vs. recent history (last 4 games). But I'd have to track each individual teams stats (by game) and have an ongoing list. It'd take me way to much time for something that may actually show a very similar trend. It basically takes me 30 minutes or less to pull together my info now - and I adjust the stats in my formula to limit the impacts of straight arithmetic vs. more using algorithims/etc. As I use this to help me smooth out vegas spreads, I still have to account for non-stat issues (momentum, injuries, weather, etc.). If my sole job was to do this, I'd get more complicated/accurate.

[bobblehead]

Bump.....Any chance on seeing the updated numbers Fosco?

Yes, I added some new metrics (point differential and yards gained/att vs. yards defened/att). And I'm cleaning up the methodology on HFA (going to adjust my summaries instead of the vegas lines - I took a look at years past and this was closer).

Yea, I glanced at that other website and the yards/att seems pretty telling. If you get time please post your spreadsheet by friday night so I can run the numbers saturday. I get into this stuff.

Waldo, that is a pretty complex system. You must have a background in statistics as I have a lot of background in it and that was tough for me to follow. I would be interested in your results too if you feel like posting them. I am a junkie for usable betting information.

edit: If I'm reading it correctly you will predict an actual score for each game, no?? Theoretically you could run the permutation of all 32 teams and predict the score of any possible game (not just the actual ones scheduled) for that week, but specifically if you ran the scores for the week you in fact COULD make a prediction against the spread.

[Fosco33]

Bump.....Any chance on seeing the updated numbers Fosco?

Yes, I added some new metrics (point differential and yards gained/att vs. yards defened/att). And I'm cleaning up the methodology on HFA (going to adjust my summaries instead of the vegas lines - I took a look at years past and this was closer).

Yea, I glanced at that other website and the yards/att seems pretty telling. If you get time please post your spreadsheet by friday night so I can run the numbers saturday. I get into this stuff.

Waldo, that is a pretty complex system. You must have a background in statistics as I have a lot of background in it and that was tough for me to follow. I would be interested in your results too if you feel like posting them. I am a junkie for usable betting information.

edit: If I'm reading it correctly you will predict an actual score for each game, no?? Theoretically you could run the permutation of all 32 teams and predict the score of any possible game (not just the actual ones scheduled) for that week, but specifically if you ran the scores for the week you in fact COULD make a prediction against the spread.

I got them done last night - just have to print screen and post them here. I could get them in better clarity if I could find a free hosting site that was bigger than 50KB.

[Waldo]

Waldo, that is a pretty complex system. You must have a background in statistics as I have a lot of background in it and that was tough for me to follow.

Engineering. That is not statistics.

Similar concepts are used to model indeterminate structures (structures that cannot be solved by a basic linear equation, instead a circular calculation is required). Or flow systems like drainage basins and traffic networks, both of which are also circular equations and require best fit approximate solutions.

[Waldo]

Interesting. Where do you find updated SOS... I can only find preseason.

I was also considering a season summary vs. recent history (last 4 games). But I'd have to track each individual teams stats (by game) and have an ongoing list. It'd take me way to much time for something that may actually show a very similar trend. It basically takes me 30 minutes or less to pull together my info now - and I adjust the stats in my formula to limit the impacts of straight arithmetic vs. more using algorithims/etc. As I use this to help me smooth out vegas spreads, I still have to account for non-stat issues (momentum, injuries, weather, etc.). If my sole job was to do this, I'd get more complicated/accurate.

Everything is calculated from the basic data set of weekly game scores.

[Partial]

Bump.....Any chance on seeing the updated numbers Fosco?

Yes, I added some new metrics (point differential and yards gained/att vs. yards defened/att). And I'm cleaning up the methodology on HFA (going to adjust my summaries instead of the vegas lines - I took a look at years past and this was closer).

Yea, I glanced at that other website and the yards/att seems pretty telling. If you get time please post your spreadsheet by friday night so I can run the numbers saturday. I get into this stuff.

Waldo, that is a pretty complex system. You must have a background in statistics as I have a lot of background in it and that was tough for me to follow. I would be interested in your results too if you feel like posting them. I am a junkie for usable betting information.

edit: If I'm reading it correctly you will predict an actual score for each game, no?? Theoretically you could run the permutation of all 32 teams and predict the score of any possible game (not just the actual ones scheduled) for that week, but specifically if you ran the scores for the week you in fact COULD make a prediction against the spread.

I got them done last night - just have to print screen and post them here. I could get them in better clarity if I could find a free hosting site that was bigger than 50KB.

Flickr?