2010 NFL draft combine thread

[RashanGary]

And Waldo keeps insisting Ted drafts off the numbers.

Maybe Waldo is spotting patterns, but it's not Ted drafting off the numbers, it's the numbers (not the height, weight, 40 that many common fans notice) but the 20 yd split, cone drill, and whatever else Waldo uses for each particualr position. Maybe those are indicators of transferable physical talent and great players tend to have those qualities, so thats why we see the patterns.

Maybe the great players Ted drafts just happen to have certain numbers in common. (pass rushers with high 10 yard splits). RB's with high 10 yard splits. OL with high explosive numbers, etc. . .

[RashanGary]

I'm kind of hoping we end up with Mike Iupati. With so many OT's putting up monster numbers and Iupati sort of just blending in, he might drop. Then there's the matter of him playing guard and OT being the premium draft position. Then there are workout warriors at other positions moving up. Then there is the small school stigma.


The guy looks like an absolute mauler and a decade long star on the field. At the combine he didn't shine quite as bright. Hopefully some of the luster stays on some of these work out warriors and we end up with the real football warrior.

I don't dislike Colledge, but I love the idea of having a superstar LG for a decade. I think it would change our line to have a guy we can count on to open his gap just about every time, a guy who defenses have to shift attention to, or they won't be able to protect his gap.

[Brandon494]

We don't need a guard and I don't want to try and switch a guard to a tackle.

This is one of the deepest drafts in years so don't be surprised to see TT move down but if he doesnt our 1st round pick will be a future starter on the O-line.

GUARNTEE IT

[Lurker64]

Maybe those are indicators of transferable physical talent and great players tend to have those qualities, so thats why we see the patterns.

Well, the combine would be a tremendous waste of everybody's time if the tests they did had nothing to do with one's ability to perform physically on the football field. The job for talent evaluators and GMs is to figure out which numbers indicate what (and also what the numbers don't indicate).

But ultimately, if a guy looks strong and fast on the field during the season, that'll probably show up when you test his strength and his speed.

I think our GM is more interested in athleticism that is shown on tape than combine numbers, but is also more interested in combine numbers than college football stat lines.

[packrulz]

I've been intrigued by Mays from the start, size, strength, speed, he's got it. I don't listen to the bashing because when USC is winning, he's a stud, and when they lose he's a bum.

[Brandon494]

I've been intrigued by Mays from the start, size, strength, speed, he's got it. I don't listen to the bashing because when USC is winning, he's a stud, and when they lose he's a bum.

Guess you don't watch much college football because dude takes horrible angles and doesnt wrap up on tackles.

Ever think of the fact that maybe having Matthews, Cushing, and Rey Rey getting pressure on the QB made him look better during his junior season.

[RashanGary]

I think our GM is more interested in athleticism that is shown on tape than combine numbers, but is also more interested in combine numbers than college football stat lines.

It sounds like we're talking about causation here. If I'm reading you correctly, I'd read this:

The number one reasoning behind Ted's picks is game tape
Somewhere after game tape, Ted considers combine numbers
Somewhere after combine numbers, Ted considers college stats


I'd disagree somewhat. I think you might be seeing causation where I see correlation. I don't think Ted really looks at combine numbers at all, other than to weed out the worst athletes. I think his picks correlate to certain numbers, but I don't think those numbers cause his picks. If you're saying combine numbers have more correlation to Ted's picks than production, I'll agree. If you're saying combine numbers influence him more than production, I don't know that I agree. NOthing Ted has ever said leads me to agree with that. His only real concern is game tape. That's what I hear him saying, anyway.

I think Waldo and others have pointed out some strong correlations though. I won't deny them. Certain measured attributes tend to show up on the field. Ted finds it the old school way, by watching film, but there are other ways to try to spot it too and both can lead to the same answer. I just disagree that Ted really looks at the numbers. I don't think he evaluates that way, in spite of the strong correlation saying he does.

[RashanGary]

Here's an example of how I think Ted will grade a player:


Ted watches a WR in college. He sees him consistently catch balls thrown to him. He sees him catch high ones, low ones, thrown behind, thrown in front. He sees him create separation, catch balls in traffic, block, get along with his teammates and run well after the catch.

He gives said player a high grade.

Said player goes to the combine and measures in a 5'11". He runs a fast 40, but nothing spectacular. He comes from a smaller school, the crowd starts to question whether he really played as well as the tape appears or if it was the competition level. Ted doesn't budge, he remembers the tape.

Draft comes and everyone says, "how can this guy be a legit deep threat? he's not big, he can't really go over people. He's not a burner, he's not going to just run right by people.


Ted drafts him anyway. He believes the tape.


The Packers get Greg Jennings in the 2nd round.


Now, Waldo can probably point out that Greg showed elite short area burst, change of direction ability, explosiveness and other stats and I think you'll find that in a lot of hte WR's TEd picks, but not all of them. Jordy Nelson, for example, is nothing like Jennings physically. Ted finds guys that get open and catch the ball. Maybe they tend to have certain stats, but I don't think those stats go into it very much, if at all. It's correlation, not causation. It's not Ted looking at the numbers, it's Ted finding certain qualities and those qualites happening ot having measured trends that some people have found.

[pbmax]

I don't think Waldo was saying Thompson drafts off numbers or combine alone. But those numbers help rank the players, including what their top line potential might be.

Think about how many prospects they are looking at, including the significant number that will not even be drafted. How many players will end up with similar round grades? How do you differentiate them?

You can only get so far with qualitative grades like Good, Better, Best. You need to be able to sort players whose tape is very close together. So when you are looking at two very similar performing players, you take the better numbers for that position as well.

And tape cannot tell you everything. Speed is relative on tape. With no combine numbers, you might end up with a guy who was fast for the WAC. There is also this fun fact: Ted tells the press nothing he doesn't have to. So he could be dissembling or leaving important factors out.

[RashanGary]

True, pb.

But Ted is nothing if not tragically honest. He would rather look like a total A-hole or dumb-ass than throw out a little misleading white lie. For some reason, when Ted says the tape is all that matters at the end, I tend to believe him.

I definitely give credit to the numbers though. I think there are clear trends that some people have done a great job picking out.

[RashanGary]

After the Favre drama went down, an older man that knew both Brett and Ted was on his death bed. Bedard had this in one of his blogs.

The son of the late elderly scout wanted to share something about Thompson, so Bedards readers could get a glimps of who Ted was.

That elderly scout said he loved Brett Favre, but was extremely disappointed in his actions. He said Ted Thompson was one of most honest, good men he ever knew. Said Brett calling Ted dishonest hurt him.

AFter he died, his son wanted people to know how much respect his dad had for Thompson.



Like I said, Thompson is nothing if not tragically honest. The guy doesn't lie. If he says it's all tape, I believe him, even if there are correlations people can find, I don't believe they are causation because Ted say so. I don't think Ted is all that complicated and misleading. When he says something clearly jsut believe him.

[Brandon494]

True, pb.

But Ted is nothing if not tragically honest. He would rather look like a total A-hole or dumb-ass than throw out a little misleading white lie. For some reason, when Ted says the tape is all that matters at the end, I tend to believe him.

I definitely give credit to the numbers though. I think there are clear trends that some people have done a great job picking out.

Well he is right about that, at the end all that matters is the tape. I'm sure combine results also have a lot to do with his picks, hes just not one of those GMs that falls in love with 40 times which is a great thing. He knows hot to draft football players, not combine stars (cough cough Al Davis).

[packrulz]

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03/02/2010 - One Dallas Cowboys scout took a look at Maryland offensive tackle Bruce Campbell at the NFL Scouting Combine and decided he'd seen the second coming of a mythological Greek god. "He has the best body of anyone I've ever seen," the scout said. Campbell met the media on Friday and the impression was that if Hercules looked like Campbell, then Hercules was in pretty good shape. At 6-foot-61/2 and 314 fat-free pounds, Campbell was an imposing figure in a tight-fitting Under Armour shirt with shoulder muscles so large that he looked as if he was wearing shoulder pads. But as impressive a physical specimen as he is, Campbell started only 17 games in college and is viewed as a project. "I feel like everybody in here, we're all starting freshmen again," Campbell said of the players at the combine. "We're all rookies so one person may not be able to tell how raw another person is." Several NFL mock drafts have the Cowboys drafting Campbell with the No. 27 pick in the first round, and there is little doubt they need to add offensive line depth. But if he is impressive at the combine, he might be off the board by the time Dallas drafts. "Wherever I go, I'm going to go there and compete for a position," Campbell said. "I'm going to play football wherever I go. I really don't mind wherever I go - Cowboys, to the Rams, Redskins, it doesn't bother me. I'm going to play football." If there is a negative Campbell has besides experience, it's a condition called Arnold-Chiari, which healthline.com describes as "a rare genetic disorder" where "some parts of the brain are formed abnormally." Campbell said he had surgery in high school to relieve the problem and that doctors at the combine cleared him to play, but it could be the type of condition that might affect his draft status. - Jan Hubbard, Fort Worth Star Telegram

[packrulz]

Experts think it could be the best draft for lineman in years: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/s...verlist_footer