WHY OH WHY didnt we make this trade?!

[sharpe1027]

Players with 10 yard ranges of "expected returns" having a 5 yard overlap could have the same overall average. But that is also my point. I will take the player who gets that average from a smaller deviation worst-to-best, than the player with the larger deviation worst-to-best. I prefer consistency.

Jordy Nelson: 36 total returns - 4 returns of 40+yards = 11.1% long returns
Ted Ginn: 147 total returns - 7 returns of 40+yards - = 4.7% long returns

Jordy might be considered the more inconsistent one with a disproportionate amount of long returns skewing his average of otherwise poor returns. Of course, I haven't taken the time to actually look at each of the 200 returns and run a full analysis. That would be way too much work for me to do on a Sunday!

I still feel that there's a good chance that Ginn would beat out Jordy for kick returns and would push for time as the 3rd or 4th WR. Not a big deal either way I guess.

[twoseven]

using past stats to try and prove how someone will play in another system is hardly effective considering what Desmond Howard did prior to GB and what he accomplished for us in 96'.

and will blackmon has been great when he has not be sidelined with an injury, and that's been few and far in between.

The problem with Desmond Howard was that prior to coming to Green Bay teams tried to focus on using him as a wide receiver. He was not used a lot returning kicks or punts. He had more returns in one year at Green Bay than in four seasons prior to '96. (I have a vague recollection of the Packers having to convince him to focus on being a return man, not a receiver. I might be thinking of someone else.)

For Howard, it was more of a change in opportunity than in performance.

you could post things like this all day long for years and years. i'll cite Charles Woodson as another example of how stats do not tell the whole story, and i suppose they didn't use him right in Oak but we did? that's why they play the games, and that's why i rarely even bother to comment on things like this because i know exactly how the discussions go. it still doesn't change the fact that blackmon has not stayed healthy and is hardly the guy you can expect to be there all year long.

[twoseven]

were Ginn to somehow be relegated to return duties only and produce, who is then complaining about his role on the team? There are plenty of well paid individuals that cost a 4th rounder or more on our roster that are not living up to these same expectations based on their salary and when they got picked. How dare we take a chance on another one? What was Rossum doing for us years ago when we last had a reliable and uninjured return game, was he expected to catch passes on a regular basis?

[Tarlam!]

There are plenty of well paid individuals that cost a 4th rounder or more on our roster that are not living up to these same expectations based on their salary and when they got picked.

+1

This why I'll be so curious as what actually transpires with our #4 pick this year. That is, if TT actually uses it! :P

EDIT: I don't know the terms of Ginns contract, but 9th overall, it must be something like B.J. Raji's. That might be a show stopper for TT.

[Patler]

using past stats to try and prove how someone will play in another system is hardly effective considering what Desmond Howard did prior to GB and what he accomplished for us in 96'.

and will blackmon has been great when he has not be sidelined with an injury, and that's been few and far in between.

The problem with Desmond Howard was that prior to coming to Green Bay teams tried to focus on using him as a wide receiver. He was not used a lot returning kicks or punts. He had more returns in one year at Green Bay than in four seasons prior to '96. (I have a vague recollection of the Packers having to convince him to focus on being a return man, not a receiver. I might be thinking of someone else.)

For Howard, it was more of a change in opportunity than in performance.

you could post things like this all day long for years and years. i'll cite Charles Woodson as another example of how stats do not tell the whole story, and i suppose they didn't use him right in Oak but we did? that's why they play the games, and that's why i rarely even bother to comment on things like this because i know exactly how the discussions go. it still doesn't change the fact that blackmon has not stayed healthy and is hardly the guy you can expect to be there all year long.

Howards performance a return man was good before '96, he just didn't do it very much.

I don't get your reference to Woodson at all. He was an all-Pro in Oakland, missed time due to broken body parts, and himself admits to having gotten a bad attitude from the environment, but his performance wasn't bad in Oakland.

Woodson might even be a good example as to why the Packers should stick with Blackmon. Many felt Woodson would never stay healthy again after missing lots of games for the Raiders. But, knock on wood, he has stayed relatively healthy in Green Bay. If Blackmon can do the same, I like him over Ginn as a return man. He has demonstrated this more than Ginn has.

I will say it one last time. If the Packers had made the trade for Ginn, it would have bothered me not at all. But I don't see it as much of a lost opportunity that they did not.

[Patler]

Players with 10 yard ranges of "expected returns" having a 5 yard overlap could have the same overall average. But that is also my point. I will take the player who gets that average from a smaller deviation worst-to-best, than the player with the larger deviation worst-to-best. I prefer consistency.

Jordy Nelson: 36 total returns - 4 returns of 40+yards = 11.1% long returns
Ted Ginn: 147 total returns - 7 returns of 40+yards - = 4.7% long returns

Jordy might be considered the more inconsistent one with a disproportionate amount of long returns skewing his average of otherwise poor returns. Of course, I haven't taken the time to actually look at each of the 200 returns and run a full analysis. That would be way too much work for me to do on a Sunday!

I still feel that there's a good chance that Ginn would beat out Jordy for kick returns and would push for time as the 3rd or 4th WR. Not a big deal either way I guess.

Don't mistake my indifference toward Ginn for support of Nelson. Personally, I don't think either one gives you much of a threat as a kick returner.

ya, if you really want to look at the effect of their long returns, you need to look at yardage from those long returns and how it influenced their average returns. Jordy's long last year was something like 55 yards, as I recall (too lazy to look). Ginn had a couple TDs (I think) so I assume something like 90-100 yards or so for each of those. For last season anyway, his long returns probably had a fairly significant impact on his average.

[Patler]

were Ginn to somehow be relegated to return duties only and produce, who is then complaining about his role on the team? There are plenty of well paid individuals that cost a 4th rounder or more on our roster that are not living up to these same expectations based on their salary and when they got picked. How dare we take a chance on another one? What was Rossum doing for us years ago when we last had a reliable and uninjured return game, was he expected to catch passes on a regular basis?

Who said it would be wrong to take the chance? I would have been fine if we did, but I don't care that we didn't.

Personally, I am hoping that the football gods smile on Blackmon and restore his good health. This is a guy who was never injured in college, but can't seem to get it going in the pros.

[Tarlam!]

Many felt Woodson would never stay healthy again after missing lots of games for the Raiders. But, knock on wood, he has stayed relatively healthy in Green Bay.

It's interesting that you mention this, because I vaguely remember TT signing Woodson to a contract based on games played. The knock on him in Oakland was similar to the knock on Brandon Marshall in Denver, overplaying injuries not to play IIRC.

His first year with the Pack, he missed all the voluntary staff, but boy, has he changed! He's really bought into the programme.

[twoseven]

I don't get your reference to Woodson at all. He was an all-Pro in Oakland, missed time due to broken body parts, and himself admits to having gotten a bad attitude from the environment, but his performance wasn't bad in Oakland.

when did i say it was bad?

in 34 LESS games in GB, Woodson has 28 more passes defended, 11 more picks, and 5 more touchdowns than his OAK days.

i said stats on a prior team don't always tell the whole story, and clearly his GB stats are MUCH, MUCH better. you don't understand my reference? i think it's pretty black and white.

[Tarlam!]

in 34 LESS games in GB, Woodson has 28 more passes defended, 11 more picks, and 5 more touchdowns than his OAK days.

And he'll be the first to tell you that the increased productivity comes from having Al Harris on the other corner, whereas in Oakland he had nobody, so he was never thrown at.

[twoseven]

Personally, I am hoping that the football gods smile on Blackmon and restore his good health. This is a guy who was never injured in college, but can't seem to get it going in the pros.

i am with you, i like blackmon a lot, think he is extremely talented. but the reality is he keeps geting hurt and the team is left with a big hole in the return game each time. IMO the only thing keeping us from having the talent to command the NFC is a return man, more solid Oline play, and a better safety next to Collins. how long do you continue to hope Blackmon stops getting hurt before you look elsewhere?

[Patler]

I don't get your reference to Woodson at all. He was an all-Pro in Oakland, missed time due to broken body parts, and himself admits to having gotten a bad attitude from the environment, but his performance wasn't bad in Oakland.

when did i say it was bad?

in 34 LESS games in GB, Woodson has 28 more passes defended, 11 more picks, and 5 more touchdowns than his OAK days.

i said stats on a prior team don't always tell the whole story, and clearly his GB stats are MUCH, MUCH better. you don't understand my reference? i think it's pretty black and white.

Nope, didn't follow it at all, and still don't with respect to the discussion about Ginn. Woodson was unquestionably a very good NFL player even when he was with the Raiders, regardless of his stats. I can't say the same for Ginn, nor can I come up with a plausible reason for his lack of production except that he is what he is.

Just my opinion. Is Ginn worth the risk of a low draft pick? Sure. Is it a big deal the Packers didn't pull this one off? No, not in my opinion.

[twoseven]

in 34 LESS games in GB, Woodson has 28 more passes defended, 11 more picks, and 5 more touchdowns than his OAK days.

And he'll be the first to tell you that the increased productivity comes from having Al Harris on the other corner, whereas in Oakland he had nobody, so he was never thrown at.

so then tell me why nobody wanted Woodson then when we picked him up? bad attitude will only carry this conversation so far.

[sharpe1027]

To be fair though, Jordy didn't have many returns total so even a few long returns would have a fairly significant impact on his average.

Ginn is not a D. Howard (worse returner, better WR), but, I feel like he'd be more likely to improve the team than a WR they could get with a 5th round pick.

[Patler]

Personally, I am hoping that the football gods smile on Blackmon and restore his good health. This is a guy who was never injured in college, but can't seem to get it going in the pros.

i am with you, i like blackmon a lot, think he is extremely talented. but the reality is he keeps geting hurt and the team is left with a big hole in the return game each time. IMO the only thing keeping us from having the talent to command the NFC is a return man, more solid Oline play, and a better safety next to Collins. how long do you continue to hope Blackmon stops getting hurt before you look elsewhere?

The Blackmon question is a real head scratcher. Woodson missed 20+ games in four season before signing with GB, but has had good health since.

Blackmon has really had two injuries of significance as I recall, a broken foot suffered the last day of rookie mini-camp while running (I think), then his knee injury last year. I'm not sure those things are injuries that show he is prone to injuries as much as just unlucky so far.

I think he has enough talent as a returner to stick with him another season. But they need a better fall back plan if he goes down.