Understanding the Neal Pick

[Bretsky]

Actually this year was the year trades were much easier than the past and there must have been a record number of trades for a 7 round draft.Go look at round two and see how many of those picks were original around us

We picked 56

55 58 59 60 62 all acquired via trade

There seemed to be lots of partners out there to tango if you were willing to make the calls and find one

you could take an alternate view - a lot of teams willing to trade out of those spots, so there was effectively a fire sale on the picks, and TT didn't feel he was getting value.

If you want a 5th rounder to drop back 8 spots in the 2nd, and someone else will do it for a 7th...might as well keep your pick, right?

I think I missed the fire sale trades; did somebody drop down in round two for a 7th ?

I'm saying TT could have received near value, like the other trades, if he did this. Tons were looking to trade up and giving value to do so

[Guiness]

I think I missed the fire sale trades; did somebody drop down in round two for a 7th ?

I'm saying TT could have received near value, like the other trades, if he did this. Tons were looking to trade up and giving value to do so

Jason Campbell for a 4th?
I still don't know who got the best of that one.

The Saints paid a 6th to move up 7 picks in the 4th. Phins also moved up 7 spots in the 4th for a 6th - I thought both of those were 7ths.

You're right, seems most teams received value for trade downs, such as the Cards paying a 3rd to move up 11 spots in the second.

I don't know then. TT has shown he likes to trade down, so why didn't he this year?

[falco]

I don't know then. TT has shown he likes to trade down, so why didn't he this year?

+1

I think given his history, we either have to assume that TT either couldn't find a partner at the slot, or felt that Neal was not the worth the risk.

Remember, it only takes 1 person to pick that player ahead of you. If TT had him that high, its possible someone else did too.

[Bretsky]

I think I missed the fire sale trades; did somebody drop down in round two for a 7th ?

I'm saying TT could have received near value, like the other trades, if he did this. Tons were looking to trade up and giving value to do so

Jason Campbell for a 4th?
I still don't know who got the best of that one.

The Saints paid a 6th to move up 7 picks in the 4th. Phins also moved up 7 spots in the 4th for a 6th - I thought both of those were 7ths.

You're right, seems most teams received value for trade downs, such as the Cards paying a 3rd to move up 11 spots in the second.

I don't know then. TT has shown he likes to trade down, so why didn't he this year?

Honestly overall TT did a pretty stellar job getting value with his picks. Had Bulaga not fallen I think we might have seen a tradedown and possibly a Hughes or CB pick but he was just too good to pass up.

Burnett...stellar value there. I think on paper we can say that for all the picks but Neal.

I just thought, right from the pick, that is the pick that had some real value ...aka...possible 4th... and I thought we could have grabbed Neal later

Odds are TT just liked him much much more than anybody out there.

Hopefully he's a perennial all pro and I'm wrong. That one there was the head scratcher for me

[falco]

Odds are TT just liked him much much more than anybody out there.

Just like Greg Jennings ... and Nick Collins ...

and Justin Harrell ...

[mission]

Odds are TT just liked him much much more than anybody out there.

Just like Greg Jennings ... and Nick Collins ...

and Justin Harrell ...

So you're saying there's a chance??

[Guiness]

Honestly overall TT did a pretty stellar job getting value with his picks. Had Bulaga not fallen I think we might have seen a tradedown and possibly a Hughes or CB pick but he was just too good to pass up.

Burnett...stellar value there. I think on paper we can say that for all the picks but Neal.

I just thought, right from the pick, that is the pick that had some real value ...aka...possible 4th... and I thought we could have grabbed Neal later

Odds are TT just liked him much much more than anybody out there.

Hopefully he's a perennial all pro and I'm wrong. That one there was the head scratcher for me

All I can figure about the Neale is that he picked him in the tier he had him ranked in. Maybe we'll find out later that other GM's had him rated there? Remember the Collins pick, everyone said he could've gotten him 2 rounds later. Then reports came rolling in that he was on the radar of a couple of others as well.

Who knows?

[Lurker64]

Odds are TT just liked him much much more than anybody out there.

Just like Greg Jennings ... and Nick Collins ...

and Justin Harrell ...

A good percentage of draft picks, from every position no matter when in the draft they were taken, just aren't going to work out for whatever reason. It's nearly impossible to predict, it just happens.

The real mark of a good GM is that they get guys who actually work out to be better than average, not that they always avoid picking bad ones. Everybody is going to miss on some picks. The great Ozzie Newsome has spent premium picks on Mark Clayton, Dwan Edwards, Kyle Boller, Travis Taylor, Duane Starks, etc. What makes Ozzie good at his job is not that he never drafted those guys, he did and he'll own up to it if you ask him to, he's a good GM because he took Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Joe Flacco, Jonathan Ogden, Ray Lewis, etc.

[Lurker64]

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/4/25/1443041/cowboys-draft-board-leaked

Interestingly enough, Cowboys had a 2nd round grade on Burnett and a 3rd round grade on Neal.

Would it make everybody else feel better if we took them in that order?

[pbmax]

Partial justification for the Jags. The 'Boys had their DE pick ranked with a first round grade. Tyson Alualu is at the near bottom of their first round grade column.

[Gunakor]

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/4/25/1443041/cowboys-draft-board-leaked

Interestingly enough, Cowboys had a 2nd round grade on Burnett and a 3rd round grade on Neal.

Would it make everybody else feel better if we took them in that order?

I'd imagine Neal had a 3rd round grade from most clubs.

I wouldn't feel better just because we swapped the order in which those two players were selected. I wanted an extra pick. That was the value IMO with pick #56.

[pbmax]

2nd Round In Order (I believe):

see below

[pbmax]

1st Round In Order:

see below

[pbmax]

Their work, not mine:

Round 1
1. Sam Bradford
2. Gerald McCoy
3. Ndamakong Suh
4. Russell Okung
5. Trent Williams
6. Eric Berry
7. Rolando McClain
8. Joe Haden
9. CJ Spiller
10. Mike Iupati
11. Dez Bryant (GUESS)
12. Earl Thomas (GUESS)
13. Bryan Bulaga
14. Sean Lee
15. Jared Odrick
16. Jason Pierre-Paul
17. Derrick Morgan
18. Kyle Wilson
19. MaurkicePouncey
20. Navorro Bowman
21. Jahvid Best
22. Tyson Alualu
23. Jermaine Gresham
________________________

Round 2
1. Devin McCourty
2. Demaryius Thomas
3. Koa Misi
4. Jerry Hughes
5. Brandon Graham
6. Nate Allen
7. Morgan Burnett
8. Taylor Mays
9. Dan Williams
10. (covered name) Weatherspoon?
11. Kareem Jackson
12. Ryan Matthews
13. Brian Price
14. Rob Gronkowski
15. Brandon Ghee
16. Jimmy Clausen
________________________

Round 3
1. Sergio Kindle
2. Anthony Davis
3. Corey Wooton
4. Patrick Robinson
5. Dexter McCluster
6. Joe McKnight
7. (covered name)
8. -
9. -
10. Colt McCoy
11. Taylor Price
12. Lamarr Houston
13. D’Anthony Smith
14. Damian Williams
15. Eric Decker
16. Thaddeus Gibson
17. Corey Peters
18. Rodger Saffold
19. Toby Gerhardt
20. Golden Tate
21. Brandon LeFell
22. Amari Spievey
23. Mike Neal
________________________

Round 4
1. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
2. Javier Arenas
3. Vladimir Ducasse
4. Ed Dickson
5.
6. Clay Harbor
7. Perry Riley
8. (plate removed)
9. Torell Troup
10. Carlton Mitchell
11. Mike Johnson
12. John Jerry
13. Linval Joseph
14. Major Wright
15. Dominique Franks
16. Larry Asante
17. Tony Moeaki
18.
19. Ben Tate
20. Kam Chancellor
21. Andre Roberts
22. Myron Lewis
23.
________________________

Round 5
1. Shawn Lauvao
2. Jacoby Ford
3. Danny Batten
4.
5. Daniel Teo-Nesheim
6. Kevin Thomas
7. Clifton Geathers
8. Dennis Pitta
9. Darrell Stucky
10. Alterraun Verner
11. Alric Arnett?
12. Eugene Simms
13. Garrett Graham
14.
15. Jamar Wall?
16.
17.
18.
________________________

Round 6
1. Jared Veldheer
2.
3. M. Hoomanawanui
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
_____________________

Round 7
1. Walter Thurmond (GUESS)
2. Marcus Easley
3. Mike Kafka
4. (blurred)
5. Adrian Tracy
6.
7.

[Sparkey]

This isn't about the value chart Leap. It's about having Neal vs. having Neal AND another pick. That was an Al Davis-esque reach to grab him there. He wasn't going any time soon.

There is no way we, as fans, can know this. Its a flat guess. And teams, even after the fact, aren't going to fess up.

You're right, I can't know this entirely for certain. But it's not exactly throwing darts blind. There's some factual evidence to support my claim that he was taken out of position. It's a guess, but it's an educated guess.

For shits and giggles, who drafting immediately behind us do you think would have snagged him? I mean, was there any cause for concern that he might be gone in a very short while?

The only other DL taken in round 2 after us was Terrance Cody, taken immediately after us. Cody was by far the more highly rated prospect, odds are Baltimore was going to take him anyway. No DL was taken after that until 3rd round #72, the pick after we selected Morgan Burnett, when Buffalo took Alex Carrington, another more highly rated DL. Odds are Buffalo takes him over Neal also, though I'm not so sure. However, I am 99% certain that Neal would have fallen at least this far.

But there were a whole helluva lot of OT's and LB's taken inbetween. So, say we made a proposal to Al Davis (of all people) where he'd offer the 5th pick in the 3rd round (#69 overall) and a 6 or a 7 to move up 13 spots and get our 2nd round pick. Davis gets OT Charles Brown out of USC instead of OT Jared Veldheer out of Hillsdale. We still get Neal, plus one of the Raiders' late round picks. I honestly believe that everybody wins here.

Granted this is only one scenario, but it seems more than plausible that it would have happened should this trade have been proposed.

You could project Buffalo to take him as they are in the first year switch to a 3-4 and were trying to add players capable of playing that spot.

Who else is switching to a 3-4 ? Any of those teams is more likely than not to grab a former DT in college who projects as a solid 3-4 DE in the pros. They might even reach for him to make sure that have a scheme specific guy.