Understanding the Neal Pick

[Gunakor]

You could project Buffalo to take him as they are in the first year switch to a 3-4 and were trying to add players capable of playing that spot.

Who else is switching to a 3-4 ? Any of those teams is more likely than not to grab a former DT in college who projects as a solid 3-4 DE in the pros. They might even reach for him to make sure that have a scheme specific guy.

I knew Buffalo was going to be picking a 5 tech. They did just that, with #72 they drafted Alex Carrington. At #72. 16 spots after we drafted Neal. If we'd have traded with Oakland for their #69 pick, we'd still have first dibs over Buffalo. Buffalo was not a threat. If they were content to wait until #72 for Carrington, there's nothing to suggest they'd have traded ahead of Oakland for Neal. They're the same player.

But we didn't have to move even that far down to net an extra pick, which was IMO the greatest value to Green Bay with that #56 pick.

[Guiness]

Their work, not mine:

They were able to divinate all that from that single cell phone picture??? Wow.

[packers11]

Their work, not mine:

They were able to divinate all that from that single cell phone picture??? Wow.

I was thinking the same thing... Impressive ... Very Impressive

[swede]

Their work, not mine:

They were able to divinate all that from that single cell phone picture??? Wow.

I was thinking the same thing... Impressive ... Very Impressive

a) Jerry will have a big laugh with Wade about his board getting leaked to the internet.

or

b) Someone's ass is grass and JJ is the lawnmower.

[The Leaper]

When you are drafting, you DO NOT attempt to project where 15 other teams are going to take people.

I can guarantee that very few could even select close to 50% correctly on the POSITION a team will take in the latter stages of the 2nd round...and that most certainly excludes everyone on this board.

You strictly go by YOUR OWN DRAFT BOARD. To start getting into guessing games is crazy. The Packers clearly really liked Neal...so they took him. It wasn't about trying to get absolute maximum value by trying to trade down to where they thought he might go.

Teams that move back typically do so because they have MULTIPLE players they grade out rather equally...and they have no real preference for one of them. If you have one guy you really like, you don't trade back a bunch of picks and just hope he's still there. You may trade a couple spots back...because you are highly confident that player will still be there. But 15-20 spots? Nope.

[BZnDallas]

When you are drafting, you DO NOT attempt to project where 15 other teams are going to take people.

I can guarantee that very few could even select close to 50% correctly on the POSITION a team will take in the latter stages of the 2nd round...and that most certainly excludes everyone on this board.

You strictly go by YOUR OWN DRAFT BOARD. To start getting into guessing games is crazy. The Packers clearly really liked Neal...so they took him. It wasn't about trying to get absolute maximum value by trying to trade down to where they thought he might go.

Teams that move back typically do so because they have MULTIPLE players they grade out rather equally...and they have no real preference for one of them. If you have one guy you really like, you don't trade back a bunch of picks and just hope he's still there. You may trade a couple spots back...because you are highly confident that player will still be there. But 15-20 spots? Nope.

Great post!! i agree 100%

so if we look at the Cowbitches board and number them 1-32 (rd1) and 33-64 (rd2), Bulaga at 13, Burnett at 30, and Neal at 62... by my calculations that is 2 first rounders and a late 2nd with the Packers first 3 selections... again if we are looking at the cowbitches board that doesn't seem too unreasonable to me... i'll trust in TT on the Neal pick.....

[Bretsky]

Odds are TT just liked him much much more than anybody out there.

Just like Greg Jennings ... and Nick Collins ...

and Justin Harrell ...

So you're saying there's a chance??

Absolutely....of course don't forget about our list of eggs TT has laid in round two either

Hopefully he turns out to be more like Greg Jennings than Brian Brohm

[Gunakor]

When you are drafting, you DO NOT attempt to project where 15 other teams are going to take people.

I can guarantee that very few could even select close to 50% correctly on the POSITION a team will take in the latter stages of the 2nd round...and that most certainly excludes everyone on this board.

You strictly go by YOUR OWN DRAFT BOARD. To start getting into guessing games is crazy. The Packers clearly really liked Neal...so they took him. It wasn't about trying to get absolute maximum value by trying to trade down to where they thought he might go.

Teams that move back typically do so because they have MULTIPLE players they grade out rather equally...and they have no real preference for one of them. If you have one guy you really like, you don't trade back a bunch of picks and just hope he's still there. You may trade a couple spots back...because you are highly confident that player will still be there. But 15-20 spots? Nope.

Thanks for echoing TT in the matter.

I don't trust Thompson's decisions just because Thompson made them. I don't care what his draft board said, I'm absolutely positive he could have gotten more with that pick than just a 3rd round talent like Neal. Look at all the other picks right around #56 that were traded for and try to convince me that Thompson couldn't have dealt his pick.

Watch Neal play, then watch Carrington play, then read the scouting reports on both players. Do so with your own eyes, not Ted Thompsons. Then tell me whether or not there were multiple equally talented and equally productive players on the board when Thompson selected Neal. Not according to TT's draft board, but according to your own eyes.

TT is not perfect. He is not infallible. He makes mistakes. Even if Neal turns out to be a really good player, this is still one of his mistakes IMO. That's what MY eyes tell me.

[Lurker64]

When Neal turns out to be better than Carrington will you admit you're wrong?

[Gunakor]

When Neal turns out to be better than Carrington will you admit you're wrong?

Sure. When they turn out to be equally productive in this league will you admit I'm right?

[Fritz]

When you are drafting, you DO NOT attempt to project where 15 other teams are going to take people.

I can guarantee that very few could even select close to 50% correctly on the POSITION a team will take in the latter stages of the 2nd round...and that most certainly excludes everyone on this board.

You strictly go by YOUR OWN DRAFT BOARD. To start getting into guessing games is crazy. The Packers clearly really liked Neal...so they took him. It wasn't about trying to get absolute maximum value by trying to trade down to where they thought he might go.

Teams that move back typically do so because they have MULTIPLE players they grade out rather equally...and they have no real preference for one of them. If you have one guy you really like, you don't trade back a bunch of picks and just hope he's still there. You may trade a couple spots back...because you are highly confident that player will still be there. But 15-20 spots? Nope.

Thanks for echoing TT in the matter.

I don't trust Thompson's decisions just because Thompson made them. I don't care what his draft board said, I'm absolutely positive he could have gotten more with that pick than just a 3rd round talent like Neal. Look at all the other picks right around #56 that were traded for and try to convince me that Thompson couldn't have dealt his pick.

Watch Neal play, then watch Carrington play, then read the scouting reports on both players. Do so with your own eyes, not Ted Thompsons. Then tell me whether or not there were multiple equally talented and equally productive players on the board when Thompson selected Neal. Not according to TT's draft board, but according to your own eyes.

TT is not perfect. He is not infallible. He makes mistakes. Even if Neal turns out to be a really good player, this is still one of his mistakes IMO. That's what MY eyes tell me.

No, Thompson's not perfect. But he has a good track record, and he's watched more film of Neal and Carrington than the rest of us put together.

I'll trust TT on this one and we'll see how it all works out. Could he be wrong? Of course.

[Pugger]

When Neal turns out to be better than Carrington will you admit you're wrong?

Sure. When they turn out to be equally productive in this league will you admit I'm right?

I'm confused here. If they are equally productive no one is right or wrong, right? Or am I wrong?

[Cleft Crusty]

The reason rational GMs trade down is that they are certain they can get one of several players of pretty much equal value at their new lower position in the draft. They don't trade down hoping their one most highly rated remaining guy doesn't get picked. Specifically in the case of Neal, they would have traded down if several players, in addition to Neal had been available at the position (whatever 8-15 picks) later in the draft they ended up holding. The fact that Thompson did not trade down suggests he didn't have other options that he was comfortable with had Neal been selected. I've already pointed out that Neal was at the top of most other teams' boards (not the Cowboys), and would have been gone well before position #72. The reason other teams didn't pick a D lineman before Carrington at #72 was that Neal was gone and they didn't like Carrington as much as the guys they picked. Clefty's vision may be failing, but he can't see Carrington on the Cowboys depth chart, though he may be one of those covered picks. The proof will be in the pudding of course as others have mentioned. However, If Carrington and Neal have similar careers as someone suggested above, that will only prove that (at least some) graded Carrington to highly.

[Gunakor]

The reason rational GMs trade down is that they are certain they can get one of several players of pretty much equal value at their new lower position in the draft. They don't trade down hoping their one most highly rated remaining guy doesn't get picked. Specifically in the case of Neal, they would have traded down if several players, in addition to Neal had been available at the position (whatever 8-15 picks) later in the draft they ended up holding. The fact that Thompson did not trade down suggests he didn't have other options that he was comfortable with had Neal been selected. I've already pointed out that Neal was at the top of most other teams' boards (not the Cowboys), and would have been gone well before position #72. The reason other teams didn't pick a D lineman before Carrington at #72 was that Neal was gone and they didn't like Carrington as much as the guys they picked. Clefty's vision may be failing, but he can't see Carrington on the Cowboys depth chart, though he may be one of those covered picks. The proof will be in the pudding of course as others have mentioned. However, If Carrington and Neal have similar careers as someone suggested above, that will only prove that (at least some) graded Carrington to highly.

I agree, but by the time you find out the original grade doesn't matter anymore. If they're equal players, would it have mattered which one we would have had by trading down a few spots?

I know the argument is that TT was just doing what he felt was right according to his own draft board. I know that the front office trusts him and the decisions he makes, and I'm not surprised others do as well. He's track record suggests it was likely the right move. I get that. What I'm doing is evaluating for myself, forming my own draft board, looking at IMO two equal players sitting there when the clock starts ticking and figuring an extra pick in a later round is the best value for #56 in particular. Even if Neal would have been gone as you suggest he would have, IMO we lose nothing by selecting Carrington instead. That's what my eyes tell me.

I understand Thompson has seen much, much more film on both of these guys than I have and having watched all that film he would disagree with me. I hope he's right and I'm wrong. I hope Neal is an outstanding football player for us. I hope for the Packers sake that he can help this team win a title. But, as I said, I just can't shake the feeling that Thompson pissed away an opportunity at even greater value with that #56 pick, even if that greater value came in the form of Carrington rather than Neal, plus another player.

[Cleft Crusty]

Clefty feels as though he is trapped in a nightmare - or a diabetic coma. The Packers and many other teams rated Neal higher. Had the Packers traded down, Neal would have been gone. They wanted him more, others wanted him more, regardless of whether they end up being right or wrong.