Packers D to Decline in 2010?

[vince]

Logic might dictate that a switch in defensive scheme takes time to become effective. In the first year, players learn new concepts, alignments and responsibilities, which takes time to perfect. But in the second year, it should be farther along installing the defense, the players should be able to read and react more quickly, communicate more effectively, etc. with a years’ experience in the scheme, and the defense should be better.

That’s been the mantra coming from 1265 these days, but that hasn’t been the case historically with Dom Capers’ defenses. His teams have gotten worse in their second years almost across the board.
.................................................. ..,,,,...Difference in Ranking yr. 1 to yr. 2
....................Pts. Rank........Yds. Rank...............Pts..............Yds.
Steelers
92.....................2....................13
93.....................8.....................3.... ..................-6................10
Panthers
95.....................8.....................7
96.....................2....................10.... ...................6................-3
Jaguars
99.....................1.....................4
00....................16...................12..... ................-15...............-8
Texans
02.....................20...................16
03.....................27...................31.... .................-7...............-15
Dolphins
06......................5....................4
07.....................30..................23..... ...............-25...............-19

Average Difference from Yr. 1 to Yr. 2.......-9.4................-7

Packers
09.....................7....................2
Projected 2010...16...................9

Now, this is obviously a very small sample size, Capers' first year successes make it difficult to show a lot of improvement, and there are so many uncontrollable variables that it’s impossible to draw any hard conclusions, but the average decline is significant - or isn't it? The trend in his more recent stints has gotten much worse. Is it legitimate? Either way, how can we explain it and what does it tell us? Should we expect this decline with the 2010 Packers’ defense?

[pbmax]

I would think that a decline of some amount would be natural as teams have a full year (not one week) to prepare to face your defense and your personnel.

But at least one of those declines includes some other factors. Didn't the Dolphins team retool personnel and alter defensive scheme under Saban in Year 2?

[vince]

Wouldn't you expect that to be offset somewhat by the defense becoming better, and/or by Capers' anticipation of adjustments?

In seeing this trend, I wonder about Capers' predictability and/or ability to adjust in defensive scheming. On one hand, his defense is designed around delivering aggression and causing confusion for offenses, while on the other hand, perhaps offenses are able to catch up to him while he fails to adjust to stay a step ahead. Or maybe he outhinks himself and plays soft when he should consistently keep the foot on the gas more.

Maybe each of these individual occurrences of regression can be explained away for different reasons, as you've suggested with Miami PB. But there is a trend here, and Capers is the common thread.

I am by no means dismissing the dramatic improvement Capers has brought to this defense, nor am I suggesting that he should be replaced. I've got more questions than answers here, so I'm hopeful others can offer their opinions.

I'm confident of one thing. Absent a Rodgers injury, the offense should continue to be very good. This team may well go as far as the defense takes it.

[packerbacker1234]

I think a lot of it is situational too. Usually when installing a new defense, you don't necessarily have the right players all the time to runt he scheme. The first year your using mostly the same players from the prior year, adn 2nd year you usually have 2 to 3 new faces around, and they need time to adjust. That, or you lose some key players now and then because of the scheme change.

I think the packers are in the position to improve because the entire starting 11 is coming back, including harris. Kampman is a key loss... if were still in a 4-3. I honestly think Brad Jones played better than Kampman, and I don't think it was even close.

That being said, we have a very good mix on defense. We have some solid veteran leadership (Woodson, Harris, Barnet, Picket) and some of our young guys coming into their prime (Williams, Collins, Jenkins), and then a nice mix of young guns (Matthews, Jones, Raji). Were sitting in a pretty unique position I feel for capers to make us even better this season.

[Bretsky]

Should be interesting to see how this defense turns out and how well they can compete against some of the better teams on offense.

There are questions/ reasons for concern and here is a slight summation IMO

1. Will our CB's be as good or better then last year ? The loss of Al Harris really hurt us last year. He had about the worst injury for a football player. Most of the time the player never regains his full effectiveness, it seems, until he is two years back from tearing his ACL. We did little in the draft or FA to help that position. This is a position that it seems cannot afford another injury before the stench that ended last season would have to be relied upon. PAT Lee may be the wild card here. He was raw when he was drafted. Maybe he's the wildcard who makees this unit better. Gosh I sure hope so.

2. Will GB get enough consistent rush from the other OLB position so teams can't game plan/doub;e up Clay Matthews ? OLB pass rushers seemed to be very highly valued in this draft by most teams. Perhaps not so much by us. We waited until after the draft to start calling for the players who were pass over 200 plus times. Brad Jones showed some nice flashes of being a solid starter and at other times he looked terrible. We better hope he is the real deal or this defense could step back.

3. How much will we have Jolly this year ? He's a very solid player in this defense and I doubt Neal can step right in and be just as effective. On the other hand, after being a bit critical of TT for not trading down and gambling Neal was still there, if he knows Jolly is a dousche bag maybe he was alright just staying there and grabbing the right player.

Hopefully Raji shows enough improvement and Pickett players some out there will help that sitution

As some will point out, with decent health our offense has a shot to be really incredible this year; maybe the above won't matter much in the regular season.

But if we lost come playoff time my bet is one of the top three points is a strong part of the reason.

[bobblehead]

did we finish the season as the #1 D?? If so, i vote yes, we will get worse.

The D improved a lot, but much of it was a paper improvement. We have more room to get better and I expect a good to very good defense this year with a dominant offense.

[vince]

did we finish the season as the #1 D?? If so, i vote yes, we will get worse.

The D improved a lot, but much of it was a paper improvement. We have more room to get better and I expect a good to very good defense this year with a dominant offense.

As stated in the original post, the D finished #7 in points and #2 in yards. I believe we finished #1 in rushing defense only. More generally, the team was a top 5-10 defense last year, with one of the easiest schedules in terms of opposing offenses. Given the fact that they should be farther along in implementation of the D and virtually every player returns, along with some added talent, can/will they repeat that performance, or will the team drop 10 spots or so as Capers' teams have historically done on average?

I tend to agree that they should be able to maintain their strong performance, and perhaps even improve upon that, but that's not what's happened in the past, and I'd guess that Capers' previous teams' fans had similar feelings of confidence after strong first years as well.

There may be some credence in part at least with what wist has said as I recall when he states that Capers may have a tendency to get vanilla at times. Certainly, there are times when that may be warranted, and the injuries in the defensive backfield may well have tied his hands last year, but the facts show that, regardless of situation, offenses have historically "caught up" with his defenses, which may suggest that he's more reactive than proactive and doesn't adjust effectively.

I agree with Bretsky that it will likely come down to the players on the field, but Capers ability to help put them in position to succeed will also have a big impact on their success relative to how offenses adjust to what they think he's trying to do. Hopefully, he will buck his current trend of his defenses regressing in their second year.

[3irty1]

The defense will only get worse in terms of defensive metrics. Last year was an easy schedule and they still got lit up for their fair share during certain games. I expect better play on D but worse stats for the most part.

[vince]

The defense will only get worse in terms of defensive metrics. Last year was an easy schedule and they still got lit up for their fair share during certain games. I expect better play on D but worse stats for the most part.

Not sure I follow. How can a team give up more points and yards but "play better?"

[wist43]

Last year was an aberration... yes the defense was vastly improved from the previous few years, but they didn't play anyone - half their games came against the worst offenses in the league.

When they came up against a good offense, with a good QB... Capers went and hid in the corner hoping to hold them under 50.

I expect the defense to be marginally improved, but their numbers won't be as good; and, I fully expect Capers to continue to be ultra-conservative against good offenses with good QB's.

[pbmax]

The defense will only get worse in terms of defensive metrics. Last year was an easy schedule and they still got lit up for their fair share during certain games. I expect better play on D but worse stats for the most part.

Not sure I follow. How can a team give up more points and yards but "play better?"

By facing better offenses. If your quality of opposition increases, some of your measurables will look worse.

But I don't expect they will fall off the face of the planet, either. Some of those top offenses that hurt us will be replaced by more average ones.

[vince]

The defense will only get worse in terms of defensive metrics. Last year was an easy schedule and they still got lit up for their fair share during certain games. I expect better play on D but worse stats for the most part.

Not sure I follow. How can a team give up more points and yards but "play better?"

By facing better offenses. If your quality of opposition increases, some of your measurables will look worse.

But I don't expect they will fall off the face of the planet, either. Some of those top offenses that hurt us will be replaced by more average ones.

That makes sense based on projecting last years' results to this year. Last year, opponent offenses averaged an 18.5 ranking. The Packers' 2010 opponent offenses averaged a 16.5 ranking in 2009. So you'd expect a slight decline in defensive performance based on that. I wouldn't consider a slight decline in raw numbers a real decline in performance. If the defense is still a top 5-10 or there abouts, I wouldn't fret over the details.

But that doesn't explain the consistent drop of 10 spots or so that Capars' teams have experienced in the past.

[RashanGary]

Players who should get better

Matthews
Jones
Raji


Should drop off

Woodson


Should stay the same

Everyone else (assuming Jolly misses only 4 games)



Just talent, I think we got better. Being in the 2nd year, we should be a little further along early.



I don't see a drop off. Dom is going to work on rezone defense. He seems like a good, experienced coach. I'd expect improvement there. I would expect he will clean up some of the confusion we had with nickle and dime defenses as well.

Overall, I think last years defense was moderately overrated. This year we should have a slightly better defense. I'd call it a good, solid defense. Compared to last year, I'd say it should be similar with less glaring mistakes.

[vince]

McCarthy and/or Capers have stated that their number one goal is to be a top 5 team in sacks this year. That's encouraging because they got shredded when they failed to pressure the QB last year, even when they played a conservative soft zone designed to protect against explosive plays. That's Capers' MO and I think experienced QB's and coordinators can adjust to it relatively easily.

What may be more difficult to adjust to is the combination of pressure up front with press coverage behind to eliminate hot reads and short seam routes. That may allow for some big plays at times, even big runs perhaps, but that's what could keep teams and quarterbacks off balance the most and I think the Packers, if relatively healthy in the defensive backfield, have the personnel to succeed with it...as long as Jarrett Bush isn't isolated out on an island somewhere.

[HarveyWallbangers]

It's a concern. Can't say I didn't notice this when Dom was hired. However, there are a few things that get me less concerned.

1) The Steelers and Panthers teams were both still very good defenses in year #2. The Steelers actually improved their scoring defense. The Panthers defense helped them get to the NFC Championship game in year #2.
2) I believe the Jaguars went through salary cap issues in 2000 and their team was gutted quite a bit.
3) Nick Saban left after 2006 and the Dolphins had a new coach with a change in personnel.

That leaves the Texans. They were an expansion team and weren't that great defensively either year.

Let's also not forget that most of these teams were much worse when Dom took over.