wow. lots of talk about the running games

[denverYooper]

Sure you show up now with this Waldo! But two months ago when I was trying to sort it out, everyone wanted to blame injuries. Sometime in the month after that thread, McGinn finally coughed up a number like 16%: as in, the Packers had played base D 16% of snaps in the entire season.

But do you think he is doing it because he has that much faith in nickel run D OR because he knows Woodson in the slot and Shields outside is a far better matchup than any 3rd lineman?

Or is McGinn right that he is protecting Wood from playing outside?

I just thought they were hip to the Kovash/Leavitt paper "Professionals don't play Minimax" and are going pass-heavy and pass-defense heavy as a result.

[mission]

because he knows Woodson in the slot and Shields outside is a far better matchup than any 3rd lineman?

My guess is this is closest to the right answer. Capers just wants to have Shields on the field taking away that deep threat and allowing Woodson to move all over the place. The rookie is just too talented to not have out there consistently. Without a 3rd corner, Woodson has to play outside, which, he can do, but isn't as much of a strength at this point in his career.

[RashanGary]

Hey Waldo,

I hadn't noticed it too much, but another poster mentioned Dom playing a lot of 3-3 nickle instead of the 2-4 nickle we're used to. Have you observed that or have stats to show that?

[mission]

Hey Waldo,

I hadn't noticed it too much, but another poster mentioned Dom playing a lot of 3-3 nickle instead of the 2-4 nickle we're used to. Have you observed that or have stats to show that?

Who are the three DL in this formation? Jenkins/Raji/Pickett?

[RashanGary]

Green/Raji/Pickett
Jenkins/Raji/Pickett
Green/Raji/Wilson
Wynn/Raji/Wilson

I don't know who it's been. . . I've noticed Wynn, Wilson, Green, Pickett and Jenkins throughout the weeks. I just haven't noticed if they were on the field in a group of three and Woodson at rover.

[RashanGary]

Or is McGinn right that he is protecting Wood from playing outside?

I think they really like Woodson inside because it opens up a lot of his playbook. Woodson was the DPOY last year. I really don't think he stinks all of a sudden on the outside.

[bobblehead]

Sure you show up now with this Waldo! But two months ago when I was trying to sort it out, everyone wanted to blame injuries. Sometime in the month after that thread, McGinn finally coughed up a number like 16%: as in, the Packers had played base D 16% of snaps in the entire season.

But do you think he is doing it because he has that much faith in nickel run D OR because he knows Woodson in the slot and Shields outside is a far better matchup than any 3rd lineman?

Or is McGinn right that he is protecting Wood from playing outside?

PB, you and I had this conversation at that time. I said that the packers weren't making stopping the run a priority this year and were playing a D with the attitude of: Go ahead and run the ball enough to keep up with Aaron...I dare you.

Its not about the faith in the nickel so much as its having so much faith in the Offense that you are willing to sacrifice the run D to not give up anything in the passing game.

I love the stat waldo posted about 2nd in short yardage run D. It speaks volumes of what happens when this unit prioritizes anything. And welcome back Waldo. Even if I disagree with you about Kampman, I still like your posts.

[bobblehead]

I think they really like Woodson inside because it opens up a lot of his playbook. Woodson was the DPOY last year. I really don't think he stinks all of a sudden on the outside.

Outside his no longer his strength, but besides Bob Sanders, I can't think of a DB I've EVER watched who supports the run D like Wood does. Move him to safety already, not that it matters the way we use him.

[Waldo]

When in 2-4-5 against base run personnel we are actually technically playing big nickel (2 CB, 3 S) with Wood usually as the SS. Wood really don't have a definable position, sometimes it leans CB, sometime it leans S, sometime it leans LB.

GB's run D stats in YPC look like crap. But answer this, who actually "established the run" against GB?

I think that Dom is confident that his nickel D won't give up a first down via the run on 1st and 10, and confident on his D's ability to play well situationally on other downs. I think he'd rather stop the potential play action pass that can hurt than not bleed first down yards on the ground. Gaining 5 yards looks great to an OC on 1st, but it doesn't gain you a whole lot vs. this D. You know Dom is worried about the run when you see us in a 3-4 on 1st down. Something he doesn't do a whole lot, even if they are showing run heavy.

[Joe]

Who is the 1000 yard receiver on the Bears?

Johnny Knox.

I believe that includes the playoff game. I saw the stat somewhere this week and checked it out. He had 960 in reg season, and this has to include playoffs.

[pbmax]

Who are the three DL in this formation? Jenkins/Raji/Pickett?

If its a potential run by down and distance, its Green with Raji and Pickett.

[pbmax]

PB, you and I had this conversation at that time. I said that the packers weren't making stopping the run a priority this year and were playing a D with the attitude of: Go ahead and run the ball enough to keep up with Aaron...I dare you.

Its not about the faith in the nickel so much as its having so much faith in the Offense that you are willing to sacrifice the run D to not give up anything in the passing game.

I love the stat waldo posted about 2nd in short yardage run D. It speaks volumes of what happens when this unit prioritizes anything. And welcome back Waldo. Even if I disagree with you about Kampman, I still like your posts.

Perhaps that is the reason, but it would be strange to continue to do it with the offense struggling for a good stretch in the middle of the season. I think it has to do with refusing to give up big pass plays like last year. This personnel and its cousins are a response to Arizona and Pittsburgh in my mind.

[Joemailman]

What Waldo's talking about is why I think Raji is the Defensive MVP. His presence inside enables Dom to go mostly nickel without getting gashed by opposing running games. That keeps Woodson inside where he is most effective and dangerous.

[Guiness]

When in 2-4-5 against base run personnel we are actually technically playing big nickel (2 CB, 3 S) with Wood usually as the SS. Wood really don't have a definable position, sometimes it leans CB, sometime it leans S, sometime it leans LB.

I get a kick out of how hard it is to recognize that we are supposedly in some sort of nickel. You'd swear we were in a base 4-3! Four guys up on the line (2 DL, 2 LBs), three players lined up like LBs (2LB's and Woodson) and 4 DB's. Tell me how this is 2-4-5? 8-D

I love it when Woodson lines up between the two MLB's. You could see Vick glancing at him when he did that in the Wildcard game - sure got in his head. On one play he shot the A-gap! Don't think I've seen a CB do that before...

[Smidgeon]

Who cares.

When GB tries to stop the run, they stuff it. Dom plays nickel even against run personnel. They aren't actually trying to run, they are trying to "keep the defense honest" to set up PA. Dom is dishonest. GB played more nickel in '10 than any other team, by a huge margin. And GB was the best team against PA passing. By a huge margin. Runs don't gash GB for explosive plays that set up scores. They make 2nd/3rd down manageable, that about it. Dom runs the ultimate white elephant D. GB is one of the best in the league at stuffing short yardage runs (#2), one of the best in the league at not allowing TD's, and well above average at not allowing first downs via the run. Odd for a team that is one of the league's worst at YPA. LOL.

Waldo!