Defense Wins Championships?

[bobblehead]

Here's the original quote again.

Each team has a very different number within a game. One's positive and the other's negative. That's as different as you can get. When the author stated this, he was just proving how important the stat is to winning, not saying how it can be used (in this context) as a way to win money.

As Bobble pointed out earlier, there's a lot that goes into this stat. The bottom line though, is that it appears that the 2 biggest keys to success in this league are being able to pass the ball and defend the pass effectively. Not earthshattering news, but it's a pretty darn good piece of info to know as a certainty and a good way to break down teams and games as well as think about defensive strategy and even how the makeup of the roster will continue to evolve over time.

If this is accurate it really is a "duh" stat. Its almost as important as pointing out that the team that scores more points wins 100% of the time. Obviously the team that passes the ball better in THAT game is more likely to win. Show me THIS stat. At the start of the game team A has a passer rating differential (year to date) of 40 while team B has a rating of 20. Team A wins that game xx% of the time. That is a relevant stat, and if this is as important as they make it out to be, it should be a very high number.

[vince]

It's a "duh" stat if you are looking for a no-brain silver bullet to makinng money predicting winners. That doesn't exist. It's a very significant stat when you look at the unique strength of the correlation to winning. Dom Capers understands this correlation and is the first DC in history to play 75% nickel, and it's been a significant factor in their success. That's innovation.

[Fritz]

I wonder if Dom wears a hairpiece to cover up what surely must be a bulging head - one filled with an overabundance of gray matter. That's one cerebral dude.

[bobblehead]

OK, just did a big breakdown of this and internet crashed and lost it, let me summarize.

This stat is moderate at best. It went 8-3 in the playoffs based on regular season finishes.

A team with a negative score beat the 2nd best team in the NFL in the playoffs. The third and fifth overall teams in this category missed the playoffs.

Now if you look at the YPG rushing leaders the 1,2,3, and 7 teams played in the conferance championship games while 1 and 3 met in the superbowl. So what is the better predictor of success?

[vince]

And as a predictor of playoff success, it was nearly flawless: the team with the higher Passer Rating Differential was 10-1. The ony game it failed to identify the winner was in Seattle's shocking wildcard win over New Orleans, an outcome that nobody but the biggest Seahawks rump swab could have anticipated.

The Saints topped the indicator in 2009. They won the Super Bowl. The Packers topped the indicator in 2010. They won the Super Bowl, too.

The Saints finished 21st in Rushing Yds. per Game in 2009. They won the Super Bowl. The Packers finished 18th in Rushing Yds. per Game in 2010. They wo the Super Bowl.

Dom's sold.

Well, back then, coach Capers was all about turnover differential, but during our most recent chat he dropped a new one on me: quarterback passer rating differential. He explained that the Packers enjoyed a 40-some point advantage in passer rating differential during the postseason. I have no doubt that’s a coach Capers original. He’s an amazing coach.

[vince]

dp

[bobblehead]

My bad, looked at the playoff rankings, not the regular season ones. Again a duh stat...the teams that played better run D were in the conf. championships. All the stats regarding the passer diff. ratings are accurate though.

[vince]

Your continued position that average run D is an equal or better metric to correlate with winning suggests otherwise.

[KYPack]

OK, OK.

Everybody hold up.

This thread makes me feel like the dumb kid on College Jeopardy. I don't see how this statistical tool helps you predict shit. How can I predict that before a game?

How do you figure out which team will have the superior rating, Mr Wizard?

[vince]

I agree KY. I have no idea how it helps one predict anything. It strongly indicates what are the most important breakdown components to winning in the NFL. If you can predict who will produce the better passer rating differential, you're on to something, but the stat itself is just a measurement of past performance in this important area. Just like everything else in the world, that doesn't necessarily predict future performance.

What the stat has done is provide a guy like Dom Capers with some pretty darn good information to use in determining how to play defense and what to focus on and prioritize as a coach.

[KYPack]

Capers game plans in the play-offs were 24 carat gold. In the early series with Philly, Dom put in a blitz that sacked Vick and freaked him out for the whole game. Then he left that storm alone and ran other stuff to befuddle Vick.

Dom put in that "Psycho" package to screw up other teams' pre-snap protection reads. When he figured that other teams' had enough tape to counter it, he went to totally different coverage and blitz packages.

His game plan in the SB was another classic. He moved Claymat to Woodson's former spy role. He covered with Woodson, who was very effective in cover until hurt. When the injuries hit, he put in different stuff to compensate for the injured and missing players.

He is way ahead of the other team's OC's in making adjustments on the fly. I was hoping we'd get Greg Williams for our DC, but needless to say, hiring Dom was one of GB's best moves in the last few years.

[pbmax]

I don't think its predictive, its explanatory. It also seems to be one of Capers primary goals. I think there was a general sense that all the nickel was to eliminate the big pass plays from last year (also caused by communication difficulties). But if it really is the reason he played that much nickel, then he has turned conventional wisdom on its head.

I suspect this approach would only make sense when you have a pass oriented offense and it still helps to win the turnover battle. You benefit more with more drives in this approach and turnovers/field position is just as important, perhaps more on defense.

[pbmax]

Capers game plans in the play-offs were 24 carat gold. In the early series with Philly, Dom put in a blitz that sacked Vick and freaked him out for the whole game. Then he left that storm alone and ran other stuff to befuddle Vick.

Dom put in that "Psycho" package to screw up other teams' pre-snap protection reads. When he figured that other teams' had enough tape to counter it, he went to totally different coverage and blitz packages.

His game plan in the SB was another classic. He moved Claymat to Woodson's former spy role. He covered with Woodson, who was very effective in cover until hurt. When the injuries hit, he put in different stuff to compensate for the injured and missing players.

He is way ahead of the other team's OC's in making adjustments on the fly. I was hoping we'd get Greg Williams for our DC, but needless to say, hiring Dom was one of GB's best moves in the last few years.

He said they went much more zone after losing Shields and Wood.

[vince]

I don't think its predictive, its explanatory. It also seems to be one of Capers primary goals. I think there was a general sense that all the nickel was to eliminate the big pass plays from last year (also caused by communication difficulties). But if it really is the reason he played that much nickel, then he has turned conventional wisdom on its head.

I suspect this approach would only make sense when you have a pass oriented offense and it still helps to win the turnover battle. You benefit more with more drives in this approach and turnovers/field position is just as important, perhaps more on defense.

Thank you. That's better than I obviously have been able to describe.

Bobble is right to say though, that stopping the run is also important to winning football, but the relationship isn't as direct anymore as it used to be and as many might think. Stopping the run is important to making teams one dimensional, which makes it easier to stop the pass. It's stopping the pass which contributes most directly to winning.

The 2009 Packers led the league in run D but couldn't stop the pass and were limited to one and done in the playoffs. The 2010 Packers were 18th in run D but #1 in Passer rating D and won the Super Bowl. Same with the 2009 Saints.

The thing about the differential passer rating stat though is it's more holistic so it incorporates the offense, turnovers, etc. into the equation too like you said PB. If your own QB can be effective and get ahead in the game early and often, not turn the ball over, etc. that can also contribute to making a team one dimensional - making it easier to defend the pass. I'd say Dom's understanding of his own team's QB has also contributed to his innovative defensive approach this year.

[mraynrand]

"past performance is no indicator of future success" - where did I hear that last other than from my wife?