Rate the 2008 draft

[sharpe1027]

A little quibble - Nelson has yet to prove unworthy of a top second round pick. He very well may be your #2 WR in GB for a long time to come. If so, isn't that worth a second round pick?

A fair point, and that would mean that your grading would be different from Guiness' grading, but not so much that Nelson would be viewed as the better pick.

[mraynrand]

The only argument I have seen that they have the same production requires me to ignore anything other than pure statistics. I don't think you can grade the draft that way.

You can't evaluate the impact of a football player on statistics alone. Finley could return be routinely double-teamed/be the focus of the other team's defensive game planning, and open up the entire offense for other players. That doesn't show up on a stat sheet.

[get louder at lambeau]

Nelson has never even played his way into a starting job. I personally don't think that is equivalent to an injury, but that's just a point that we can agree to disagree on.

If you could go back an re-draft, would you draft Nelson in the first round? Would you draft Finley in the second?

They didn't exactly have the same mountain to climb as far as becoming the starter. Finley came into a roster where he needed to beat out Donald Lee and Tory Humphrey, while Nelson had Driver, Jennings, Jones, and Ruvell Martin as the incumbents to beat. Big difference.

One thing I mentioned in passing above that people should take notice of as well- Nelson and Finley have similar yards per game played and per reception. Maybe next year those will change, but over their current NFL careers, Jordy has produced just about as well as Finely on a per game and per reception basis. I think many would be surprised by that.

[get louder at lambeau]

You can't evaluate the impact of a football player on statistics alone. Finley could return be routinely double-teamed/be the focus of the other team's defensive game planning, and open up the entire offense for other players. That doesn't show up on a stat sheet.

But that hasn't been true in general. Look at the highlights of Finley I posted. He doesn't get doubled anywhere near as much as his fan created legend would have you believe. His catches are generally against LBs or single safeties or CBs. Our offense throws too many weapons at the D for them to just continuously double a TE.

[sharpe1027]

They didn't exactly have the same mountain to climb as far as becoming the starter. Finley came into a roster where he needed to beat out Donald Lee and Tory Humphrey, while Nelson had Driver, Jennings, Jones, and Ruvell Martin as the incumbents to beat. Big difference.

One thing I mentioned in passing above that people should take notice of as well- Nelson and Finley have similar yards per game played and per reception. Maybe next year those will change, but over their current NFL careers, Jordy has produced just about as well as Finely on a per game and per reception basis. I think many would be surprised by that.

Apples and Oranges. Finley's average/reception would put him about 5th in the league in yards per reception for TEs (although he doesn't qualify under ESPN's list because of the # of games played). Nelson barely makes the top 50 for WRs.

[Guiness]

Apples and Oranges. Finley's average/reception would put him about 5th in the league in yards per reception for TEs (although he doesn't qualify under ESPN's list because of the # of games played). Nelson barely makes the top 50 for WRs.

*ding ding ding* we have a winner.

You can't compare Finley and Nelson's numbers that way.

Remember the year Colston came into the league? Yahoo sports had him as a TE in the fantasy league. That guy single handedly won guys pools (including someone in my PR bracket, Red I believe?) because they could use WR numbers in a TE slot.

[Guiness]

Isn't that what I said? I said "re-draft" and you said "the draft was held again." I don't understand what hair you are are splitting, but regardless, your analysis answers my question.

Using the standard I mentioned above, Finley could be graded as a better pick than Nelson because, in hindsight, you would have picked Finley two rounds above where he went, whereas you would have picked Nelson a below where he went.

Yes, I kind of went 'round in a circle there.

What I hate is when someone says: "we should've taken this guy instead", which I see now you didn't do.

It's easy to do that, DeSean Jackson or Eddie Royal would both look pretty good in G&G. Regardless of them, however, Nelson was not taken that much too high, if at all.

[sharpe1027]

Yes, I kind of went 'round in a circle there.

What I hate is when someone says: "we should've taken this guy instead", which I see now you didn't do.

It's easy to do that, DeSean Jackson or Eddie Royal would both look pretty good in G&G. Regardless of them, however, Nelson was not taken that much too high, if at all.

Gotcha and no I did not meant to suggest picking someone else. I agree that Nelson was not taken much too high, but by comparison Finley was taken much too low.

[get louder at lambeau]

Apples and Oranges. Finley's average/reception would put him about 5th in the league in yards per reception for TEs (although he doesn't qualify under ESPN's list because of the # of games played). Nelson barely makes the top 50 for WRs.

So, do you think they'll give you more points for a TD from a TE then? Or you'll need less yards for a first down if a TE catches the ball?

The reason less production normally comes from TEs is because they are often blockers more than receivers. Half OL, half WR.

Finley rarely blocks, and isn't very good at it. He is a big receiver. He even lines up as a WR sometimes. If he was a well rounded TE, I'd agree with you, but he isn't. They could line Jordy up as a TE and never have him block, just like Finley, and he'd be a top 5 TE too.

[Bossman641]

The issue here is that everyone’s grading scale is different. Patler’s is based on actual production since the draft. Ignoring everything else, when you look at pure numbers, Finley’s contribution hasn’t been that significant due to a slow start and injuries. With that said, Patler acknowledges that Finley was a great pick and just needs to stay healthy.

Brandon’s grading is based around [(potential + value) / round). Potential is probably even the wrong word, because we have seen Finley already perform consistently. He just needs to stay healthy and on the field.

Looking at the 2008 draft, I can find a few players who have been more productive than Finley that were drafted after him – Garcon, Hillis, Manningham, Avril (arguably). I don’t think they are better than Finley, and I would still take Finley at that spot, but I can see how an argument can be made for a C+, B- grade for Finley.

[sharpe1027]

So, do you think they'll give you more points for a TD from a TE then? Or you'll need less yards for a first down if a TE catches the ball?

The reason less production normally comes from TEs is because they are often blockers more than receivers. Finley rarely blocks, and isn't very good at it. He is a big receiver. He even lines up as a WR sometimes. If he was a well rounded TE, I'd agree with you, but he isn't. They could line Jordy up as a TE and never have him block, just like Finley, and he'd be a top 5 TE too.

I give up. If you think Jordy can play TE in the NFL, I will just have to disagree.

[get louder at lambeau]

I give up. If you think Jordy can play TE in the NFL, I will just have to disagree.

What does Finley do except run routes and catch passes? What about that couldn't Jordy do? It's not like Finley is an inline blocker.

[get louder at lambeau]

I should probably point out again that I don't think Nelson is as talented as Finley. I think he has been more valuable over the three years since being drafted than Finley has.

I expect both of them to have great years next year, and wouldn't be surprised to see Finley outproduce Nelson at all. As of right now, however, he has not significantly outproduced Nelson on a career basis, per game basis, or per catch basis. A full, healthy season for Finley could well change that. I expect that both of their numbers will go up significantly next year.

[sharpe1027]

What does Finley do except run routes and catch passes? What about that couldn't Jordy do? It's not like Finley is an inline blocker.

He plays TE, which includes lining up just outside of the tackle and blocking on run plays. Finley has 30 lbs and several inches on Jordy. I don't think you will find many people that think that Jordy could lineup in the same positions as Finley. Just because Finley is ALSO able to lineup wide, doesn't mean that Jordy can lineup as a TE in the NFL. Contrary to what seems the popular belief here, Finley doesn't just run routes. Finley is often asked to block LBers and even DEs and he's decent at it. Can you say the same for Jordy?

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/2340/packers-finley-is-the-real-deal

"coach Mike McCarthy said Finley's blocking skills have improved to the point where he can be deployed in any formation and for any role."

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/104191139.html

The fact that Finley missed blocks on two running plays Monday night in Chicago doesn't mean he isn't a solid blocker, according to position coach Ben McAdoo. It just means he had two bad blocks.
...
Those were the first two "bad" runs that Finley was responsible for this season.

[get louder at lambeau]

Contrary to what seems the popular belief here, Finley doesn't just run routes. Finley is often asked to block LBers and even DEs and he's decent at it. Can you say the same for Jordy?

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/2340/packers-finley-is-the-real-deal

"coach Mike McCarthy said Finley's blocking skills have improved to the point where he can be deployed in any formation and for any role."

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/104191139.html

The fact that Finley missed blocks on two running plays Monday night in Chicago doesn't mean he isn't a solid blocker, according to position coach Ben McAdoo. It just means he had two bad blocks.
...
Those were the first two "bad" runs that Finley was responsible for this season.

Right around the time that first article was put out in 2009, I watched Finley live at Training Camp. He made great catches but was the worst blocker out there by far. I remember watching him literally fall on his ass while missing a block like a total retard. Bad. I can't overstate how bad it was.

The second article is a story about him missing blocks, and his position coach stands up for him after a game where he sucked at blocking. I'm not sure how that's supposed to prove he's a good blocker. Sounds like any coach defending their player from reporters who are attacking his failures. I'm not sure how many "bad runs" he's allowed to be responsible for before it counts as being a bad blocker either. Or how many "good runs" he was part of. I know our running game sucked pretty bad during those first four games when Finley played this year though.

Maybe I'm underestimating his blocking based on what I saw two years ago. From what I remember, it seems like the Packers usually used Crabtree to run behind this year and took Finley off the field or sent him out on a pass pattern. There is no denying that he is a pass catching TE and not a traditional blocking TE though. He always was from the start. To pretend that he blocks as much as, and as well as, a traditional TE is just not true. To compare his stats to that type of TE is at least as wrong as comparing him to a WR.

Jordy, on the other hand, is known to be our best blocking WR. I was joking about moving him to TE, of course. I do think he could do what Finley does though. Finley is a receiver, just like Jordy. Where he starts his route is the only difference. Again, I think Finley is more talented than Jordy is. I just don't think it's anywhere near as big a gap as some do.