AJ Hawk

[Smidgeon]

I was looking through some of the Packer's combine numbers, and AJ Hawk's really stood out as being exceptionally athletic. But that athleticism never seemed to quite translate onto the field. I'm just curious if anyone has a reasonable explanation into why that happened, or if that's just the general mystery.

Some of the numbers:

4.59 40-yard dash (Burnett, James Jones, Nelson, and Tramontana were all in the 4.5-4.6 range)
1.56 10-yard split (Of 10-yard splits I could find, only Pat Lee, Matthews, Jordy Nelson, and Davon House are more than .02 faster)
1.87 last 20 (Of 20 yard splits I could find, Hawk is tied with Alex Green for the third best time after Collins and [Grant and Jennings]--who are tied for second)
24 Bench
40" vertical (Of verticals I could find, Hawk is tied for the best on the team with Nick Collins)
9' 7" broad
3.96 Shuttle (Of shuttles I could find, easily the best on the team by 0.10 seconds)
6.82 Cone (Of the 3 cones I could find, tied for fourth after House and Jennings and Peprah on the team)

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Other non-Hawk numbers that stood out to me:
- Pat Lee had pretty good numbers too, but it also didn't translate well (4.41 40, 1.46 10-yard split, 1.88 last 20, and a 10' broad, but had a 31" vertical and a 7.07 3 cone)
- Shields and Collins are the only Packers with sub-4.40 40 times
- Davon House has (of the times I found) the 6th best 40, the best 20-yard split, the 4th best 10-yard split, the 5th best shuttle, and the best 3 cone, but was average or worse in the vertical jump (33.5") and the broad (9' 1")
- Grant's long speed (last 20) was faster than anyone else's except Collins
- Only three players had a 10-yard split under 1.60 and a last 20 under 1.85: Grant, Jennings, and Alex Green
- Only three players had a shuttle under 4.10: Hawk, Woodson, and Spencer Havner
- There was a 0.10 second gap between [Davon House and Greg Jennings] and everyone else in the 3-cone

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Notes:
- I am now more excited to see House and Alex Green in action. They both have some impressive numbers.
- Hawk and Pat Lee confuse me a little bit as most others seem to have numbers with a relatively natural translation to the field
- I understand that the numbers are relatively subjective since the official ones are hardly available data
- Without the entire team's data (since some opt out and some splits aren't available), some of these conclusions are spotty at best. But I still find it interesting.

[red]

oh thank god, i thought this was gonna be another injury thread

[Patler]

oh thank god, i thought this was gonna be another injury thread

Funny how conditioned we become. I was thinking the same thing!

[Upnorth]

I though some one was going to call him a bust again.

[Upnorth]

I do not put much stock in combine numbers. They have bearing, but how you play should be the final say in draft decisions. If the humans timing you start .2 seconds late, you look super fast, .2 sec early, super slow. .2 difference in 40 yards equals 1/2 yard maybe, if uninterupted!
Al Davis cares alot about combine numbers, how does that work out?

[Smidgeon]

I do not put much stock in combine numbers. They have bearing, but how you play should be the final say in draft decisions. If the humans timing you start .2 seconds late, you look super fast, .2 sec early, super slow. .2 difference in 40 yards equals 1/2 yard maybe, if uninterupted!
Al Davis cares alot about combine numbers, how does that work out?

So does every other GM in the league.

[Lurker64]

Ted is actually much more of a numbers drafter than Packer fans like to think. Rarely does he draft a player who does not test well athletically for position-specific traits. Of course, if a guy has functional athleticism for his position, you hope that shows up on tape as well.

[Upnorth]

You really think every other GM put that much emphasis on combine results? Maybe I am ignorant of reality but I think that most GM's just use combine results to split hairs over competing players who are very similar in style and preformance, not using it as a major scouting / decision tool. Who else would have drafted Heyward-Bay that high? How about a 3rd for Pryor? That is greatly based of combine results. I am not saying they are worthless, just not worth very much.

[Fritz]

Ah, the three-cone drill let Thompson down!

I tell you, the three-cone and the shuttle are the secrets to Ted's drafting success.

[Joemailman]

Ted is actually much more of a numbers drafter than Packer fans like to think. Rarely does he draft a player who does not test well athletically for position-specific traits. Of course, if a guy has functional athleticism for his position, you hope that shows up on tape as well.

My sense is that Ted uses the combine to eliminate those players who lack the athleticism needed to play the position. He won't draft a guy because he ran a 4.2 40, but he might eliminate a guy because he ran a 4.7.

[Upnorth]

My sense is that Ted uses the combine to eliminate those players who lack the athleticism needed to play the position. He won't draft a guy because he ran a 4.2 40, but he might eliminate a guy because he ran a 4.7.

Exactly.

[3irty1]

3.96 Shuttle (Of shuttles I could find, easily the best on the team by 0.10 seconds)
...
- Only three players had a shuttle under 4.10: Hawk, Woodson, and Spencer Havner

Morgan Burnett says hi.
20 Yrd Shuttle: 3.92

There was a reason Hawk went top 5 and I think you found it. He was a LB prospect the likes of which haven't been seen since. Between Hawk's 2nd and 3rd year it seemed like he bulked up an awful lot and a guy who's only knock was that he was stiff became totally rigid. In truth the guy is still an outrageous athlete, but being a fluid athlete is the other half of the equation especially for those bigger guys--just ask Jermichael Finley.

[Lurker64]

My sense is that Ted uses the combine to eliminate those players who lack the athleticism needed to play the position. He won't draft a guy because he ran a 4.2 40, but he might eliminate a guy because he ran a 4.7.

The only "40 or Bust" team in the NFL is the Raiders, and we all know how that works out. I think that Ted has size and athleticism requirements to put a draftable grade on a guy (no RBs under 5'10", no DBs under 5'11" for example) and will only deviate them a bit (Brandon Jackson was 1/8" short of 5'10" and Bryan Bulaga's 3-cone wasn't what you'd hope.) But the thing is, you don't see Ted drafting a lot of guys who were super-productive college players despite their athletic limitations, but you do see Ted drafting a lot of guys who are outrageously athletic in relevant categories for their size/body type (Raji, Matthews, Burnett, Green, House, Quarless, etc.)

I think that "it doesn't really matter how guys do running around in their underwear" is just a media fabrication (since it nicely ties into the myths that the football media likes to promote). But then again the media focuses a ton on the 40-yard dash, which doesn't really matter, and they put virtually no attention on everything else and what it means.

[bobblehead]

Ah, the three-cone drill let Thompson down!

I tell you, the three-cone and the shuttle are the secrets to Ted's drafting success.

Of course. They show change of direction and short acceleration. More important than who runs a fast 40. That shows ability to get out of the blocks fast and speed in the last 20....after you have been tackled on any football field.

[Bretsky]

Here is my take; year one Hawk looked pretty good. I think they wanted him to bulk up and focus on his strength ; a lot of the radio heads thought that as well. I think Hawk lost some speed year two and was less effective. He seems to be a natural leader and for the first time last year he was put in a leader role. I think he's focused and pays more attention to detail in his spot now so now he's just flowing naturally again.