It's Bear Week I

[mraynrand]

The Packers chances will improve greatly if they can generate pressure with three or four while keeping Forte in check as a reciever.

Ya think?

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Well, the Packers have a clear advantage against a weakend Bears secondary. Can the Packers O-line keep Rodgers upright? Peppers and Idonje (sp?) could create pressure problems. It'll be interesting to see what kind of blitz packages Capers prepares for this week.

In the end I see another hard fought Packers/Bears game, with turnovers being the deciding factor. I believe we'll see a higher scoring game than usual between these two teams, with both teams looking to take advantage of under-performing secondaries.

As a gambler, I love the early line on the game total 45.5. I expect it to reach 47 or so by game-time. This one's going over folks.

[3irty1]

If the Packers lose this it will probably have something to do with Julius Peppers. Forte is good but the Packers don't get beaten by running backs.

Dom consistently brings out the worst in Cutler and despite unlucky execution, I usually like MM's gameplan against the Bears. Having legit running backs is going to make this one a little easier methinks. Lovie's defensive philosophy is that offense is hard. If you take away the explosive plays and make the offense run a million small plays, they'll probably make some mistakes. I look for Ryan Grant to get the majority of carries in this one. He's had a lot of success against the Bears in his career and excels at moving the chains without making mistakes. Establishing the run will do a lot for Clifton who will be sitting in the chair all day vs Peppers.

[smuggler]

Unfortunately, Peppers and Idonije are both coming off a pretty poor game, so they will be hungry to forget all about that.

[MadtownPacker]

He broke up with his fiance, so he had to get back into dating trim.

I was thinking he is thinner cuz he gets to keep all his crackrocks to himself.

[sheepshead]

[CaliforniaCheez]

As always it is a big game. The Packers have to keep pace with the Lions who are playing with the viklings.
Divisional games are always big and the Bears will be fired up after losing a to a Packers common game, and conference opponent(key tiebreakers).

The Packers D-line should have an advantage over the Bears O-line. The Packers O-line needs a big game.

[Iron Mike]

From the opposite side of the fence:

http://boards.chicagobears.com/forums/1/2788282/ShowThread.aspx

[Bossman641]

If you remember last year, the Bears started out the year very similar to how Sunday’s Saints’ game went: a lot of 5 and 7 step drops, an out of whack run/pass ratio, pass plays without extra protection, etc. Once they figured out that couldn’t work, it swung back the other way to being more conservative. That’s how I see Sunday playing out. I expect a heavy dose of Forte, screens, and quick passes from the Bears.

Offensively, Forte has been carrying the Bears. He has looked really good this year with a burst that I didn’t think he had. The Bears still can’t run block worth a shit for the most part, Forte does his best work on dump-offs. The Bear offense was all out of sorts Sunday – Cutler wasn’t getting the ball out quickly and the OL were missing blitzers and allowing free runs at him. You have to believe Capers will try the same and attempt to confuse the protection. The Saints had a ton of success blitzing DB’s off the corners and blitzed on something like 65% of Cutler’s attempts. They were bringing 6 and even 7 on a large percentage of those. I have a hard time seeing Capers being as aggressive as Williams was but obviously it will be key to get Cutler flustered. By the end of the game he was throwing off his back foot on almost every attempt. He also left his receivers out to dry 2-3 times when the Bears tried to beat the blitz and he led them directly into safeties.

The Bear defense has been playing well. I was impressed how they were able to shut down the Saints offense in the first half. It will be the same as always with them. It will be important for the Packer players to protect the ball as the Bears swarm to the ball. Rodgers will have to take what is given to him and be patient with the offense. I’m really anxious to see what Finley is able to do as he is supposed to be the ultimate cover 2 breaker. I’m also interested in seeing how much more effective the Packers can be running the ball then they were last year. The interior of the OL should be able to get some push.

[hoosier]

From the opposite side of the fence:

http://boards.chicagobears.com/forum...howThread.aspx

They actually had one or two reasonable sounding Bears fans posting in that thread. What is this world coming to?

[Upnorth]

So is this the week we finally get a good pass rush? If we have troubles against the bears oline, it won't be pretty this year.
I think Caper's knows how to limit the Forte Screen's and if that is the beares biggest weapon we wont give up 400 yards again.

Is this the week Jones has a big game? I could see him and Finley getting used a lot in the pasing game. I don't think Grant or Starks will be much of a factor in the game except to keep the Bears D off balance.

This is our biggest game until we meet Detroit, and we need a win to keep pace with what appears to be a great lions team.

[mmmdk]

I was wearing my Packers # 12 SB championship cap in my local [danish] supermarket today, as a young guy stopped me and said "congrats with the championship...hope you beat the Bears sunday". It turned out the youngster was turning on to the NFL and Packers gave him a glow in his eyes; furthermore he said: "I love Rodgers but I hate Favre". Now, I've shortened the conversation but the essense is there. The soon to be Green'nGold fan loved the history & proud foundation the Packers are built upon and had no love for selfishness or malicious brouhaha provided by a certain individual. He's Packer people; he's becoming a part of the grand Packer fan culture that spands the entire world. Being a Packer fan is special but not for everybody; it's for Packer people.

[mmmdk]

Btw; Packers at Bears will be shown LIVE on danish TV-3 next sunday! As will a noon game, SNF & MNF.

[denverYooper]

So is this the week we finally get a good pass rush? If we have troubles against the bears oline, it won't be pretty this year.
I think Caper's knows how to limit the Forte Screen's and if that is the beares biggest weapon we wont give up 400 yards again.

Is this the week Jones has a big game? I could see him and Finley getting used a lot in the pasing game. I don't think Grant or Starks will be much of a factor in the game except to keep the Bears D off balance.

This is our biggest game until we meet Detroit, and we need a win to keep pace with what appears to be a great lions team.

RK	TEAM	        ATT	COMP	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	INT	SACK	YDSL	RATE	YDS/G
1	Dallas	        68	42	61.8	447	7.6	33	4	2	10	67	92.4	224
2	Philadelphia	63	35	55.6	361	6.4	32	4	2	9	43	83.0	181
3	New Orleans	80	46	57.5	482	7.0	36	4	0	8	74	95.6	241
4	Green Bay	95	60	63.2	800	9.0	62	4	3	7	51	92.9	400

Is pass rush the biggest problem? Green Bay is 4th in sacks right now. I know that measuring sacks is not necessarily the best indicator of pass rush effectiveness but it seemed to me that they had pressure that forced Newton into some bad throws on Sunday. Those fatties really pushed the line pretty well. Brees is one of the hardest QBs to sack (26 last year in 16 gms) and Newton's newness and ability pose some problems for would-be sackers.

Green Bay is 19th in passer rating against (they were 1 last year) but part of that might be a distortion from Brees (112.5) because he makes up 1/2 of the current year's sample. The Bears are just behind the Packers (94.8) after playing the Saints and people (rightly) feel the Bears have a pretty good D. Newton's rating was 72.0, even without Tramon in the game.

Fun extra fact about Sunday's game from Football Outsiders:

Cam Newton in the first quarter: 10-of-12, 151 yards, 1 touchdown, 111 DYAR. In the last three quarters: 18-of-34, 281 yards, 3 interceptions, -65 DYAR.

Most troubling so far about the defense might be that Green Bay has the worst 3rd down conversion rate against, at 56%. That should come down, though, as they face worse and/or less mobile QBs.

Now, I'm not excited about the pass rush, I'm just not sure it's a huge problem. Walden is underwhelming as a rusher and guys seem to get into him pretty easily and neutralize him but he doesn't kill us. Those guys on Philly's wide 9 front looked awesome tearing ass up the field until Atlanta started running right by everyone just hunting for sacks.
Hopefully So'oto or Neal will come back healthy and start crushing QBs but if they don't, I still think the D will hold it's own.

I feel like it takes a good 4 games to see how Os/Ds are really looking because there's not a good tape base yet, teams are getting into the rhythm of regular season games, and injuries peak early. And for the Packers, it seems to take about 8 games to really get rolling.

[denverYooper]

One thing I've noticed lately: Packers seem to have given up tons of yards receiving to running backs. I was waiting for Football Outsiders DVOA to come out today because they break down the yards given up to 1 WR, 2 WR, Other WR, TE, and RB.

Check it.

Defense DVOA

		vs. #1 WR 	                             vs. #2 WR 	                      vs. Other WR 	               vs. TE 	               vs. RB
Rk 	Team 	DVOA 	Rk 	Pa/G 	Yd/G 	DVOA 	Rk 	Pa/G 	Yd/G 	DVOA 	Rk 	Pa/G 	Yd/G 	DVOA 	Rk 	Pa/G 	Yd/G 	DVOA 	Rk 	Pa/G 	Yd/G
26 	GB 	-38.0% 	2 	13.0 	96.5 	-25.9% 	7 	9.7 	29.2 	56.7% 	28 	7.8 	61.1 	25.2% 	22 	8.2 	54.5 	57.1% 	28 	9.8 	114.6

114.6 yards per game receiving to running backs. The numbers fall off quite a bit after the 1 & 2 receivers, actually, and they look pretty bad right now against TEs and 3+ WR also. But the thing that really jumps out is that they've given up 30 yards per game more than the next (New England) and 70 ypg more than the league average (44.1)

This *could* be a big problem as Forte is Cutler's favorite target in the receiving game and teams are making hay right now throwing to RBs against this front. I feel like they'll specifically game plan for Forte, though, and hopefully will be successful in blunting his impact.