Cap & Trade

[pbmax]

After reading all this, it just sounds like too many landmines and not enough potential return. Let him go, as we mostly all thought he would, and deal with Wells/Finley.

Then please Ted, draft a right outside linebacker and a defensive end or two, and not in, like the later rounds.

That's the other problem with the Flynn tender, signed or not. Its sucks up cap space when you might want to negotiate with your own (or theoretically other team's) Free Agents.

Which is why I don't see this happening unless its all set prior to the start of the League year.

[Upnorth]

So if we were to trade him I would love to see him go to Indy. This could work out for both teams quite well. Indy gives us there 2nd round, they then trade pick one for a boat load of picks to who ever wants Luck that bad. We get a 2nd out of a 7th, Indy gives a 2nd to get a bunch more, plus a somewhat more proven qb than you can the draft.

Or does this sound stupid?

[Harlan Huckleby]

If I am the agent for Flynn, why should I actively cooperate with the Packers to "tender and trade" until after the tender is actually made?

The best deal for Flynn would be as a free agent, to go where he wants to go for whatever contract is agreeable to him from that team. It may or may not be a team willing to also give up a draft pick.
Assisting a deal in which the new team gives up draft picks takes away a potentially good player from the team he will be playing for. It lessens the quality of the team he will be playing for.

If I were Flynn's agent, I would discourage the Packers from making a tender offer.

not sure where you got that phrase "tender offer", but it sounds erotic.

No agent would ever look kindly on a franchise tag, I should think. They have no decision to make but to cooperate, it is a turd sandwich the players have to deal witb.

However, if the Packers do go ahead and make the tender offer anyway, I would then cooperate with them in trying to get to a team that Flynn wants to play for.

Flynn is in a uniquely powerful position: he's too good and expensive to be a backup. If I were him, I'd be happy to be a franchised backup, his value will probably just go up, $14M is good dough, minimal risk of injury, waiting another year is not a killer. The world is his oyster, he has plenty of bargaining position with or without the tag.

Most likely TT will let him walk. Way too much risk to get fancy.

[Harlan Huckleby]

So if we were to trade him I would love to see him go to Indy. This could work out for both teams quite well. Indy gives us there 2nd round, they then trade pick one for a boat load of picks to who ever wants Luck that bad. We get a 2nd out of a 7th, Indy gives a 2nd to get a bunch more, plus a somewhat more proven qb than you can the draft.

Or does this sound stupid?

If I were Indy's GM, I would take your advice. That should tell you something.

[MadScientist]

Cassel had a full season under his belt and only got #2 when bundled with another player. Is that enough compensation to risk using up the tag on him, when doing nothing will likely get an end of round 3 pick? Also, using the tag on Flynn will prevent them from using it on Finley. I don't see tagging Flynn at all unless Finley is locked up. Bottom line, I think TT will let Flynn walk. It's not ideal, but it makes the most sense for the organization, especially since no team in the division will be signing him.

[Zool]

Did they do away with the lesser tags in the new CBA? The one where a team would have to give up a couple lower round picks?

[Patler]

Did they do away with the lesser tags in the new CBA? The one where a team would have to give up a couple lower round picks?

Those are for Restricted Free Agents. Tendering options are:

- Right of First Refusal ("RFR")
- RFR + draft pick in round player was selected in
- RFR + one second round pick
- RFR + one first round pick
-

[Fritz]

So in a real sense doesn't this come down to risking losing Finley (by not being able to use the franchise tag on him) so you can move up a round or so in the next draft (getting the compensatory end-of-the-third instead of dealing Flynn for, say, a mid or early second rounder)?

[jdrats]

Yes, that is the key and as long as Flynn agrees to the process, he might not sign. But the minute the new league year kicks in, teams will be spending their FA budgets, possibly limiting his options and contract numbers. The longer it goes without a resolution, the more incentive Flynn has to sign. To continue negotiating with teams, the Packers need to keep the tender on the table. But at any point, Flynn can sign to guarantee himself $14.5 million. That is where their interests diverge.

So it would be very important to have the parameters of the deal in place before the league's new year so the first thing that happens is that an agreement on his new contract is made with his agent while the FA money is still available.

If it doesn't happen fast, the Packers have to have the cap room because he will sign the tender before the Packers have an interest in rescinding it. Otherwise he misses the boat.

As was discussed about the Cassell trade, it takes a lot of trust and coordination. And remember, the trade partner, if they think they can make the same deal AFTER he hits FA, has every incentive to muck it up.

Hmm, my bad. I guess I didn't know what I thought I knew. Seems I was wrong about some of the details related to signing or not signing the tender. I'll try harder to resist my "say things forcefully and people will believe you," tendancies.

Anway, here's an interesting article by Andrew Brandt that touching on the question. Since discovering I was wrong in my assumptions, I'm leaning towards Brandt's veiwpoint that it is possible, but unlikely, that the Packers will use a franchise tag on Flynn.
The link:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/sportsmoney/2012/01/04/manning-holmes-flynn-answering-the-nfls-new-burning-questions/

[RashanGary]

To me, the idea that Thompson may not find a trading partner seems largely overblown.

Matt Cassel had about 3,800 yards passing and an +/- 86 QB rating when he was traded. Flynn has 1,000 yards and a 93 rating right now. Cassel has no college tape. Flynn has a full season, a championship season.

I've watched Cassel play. He plays with slow tempo, makes silly errors throughout the game. I've seen him run out of bounds rather than flip the ball away to save the deep sack. His throwing motion is long and slow. His tempo is slow. His arm seems very average the times I've watched him. He's a statue.

Flynn plays with fast tempo. Faster than AR IMO. He's less worried about the perfect play. He'll throw a tight ball into his best one on one pass catcher (Finley) rather than try to find a wide open guy. He's more of a back-yard kind of player, but that works too if you can keep it in check. He's extremely confident. He's a darn good athlte and tough as heck. The guys seem to love him. He plays with that, awareness that he doesn't make silly errors. The game seems more natural to him.

To me, Flynn is a damn good QB. I think it's obvious. If Ted had to take a 4th round pick for Flynn to go to the team he wants, whatever. That's worst case scenerio. But any team willing to give up a high pick for Flynn is a team that really wants him. Flynn's #1 goal right now is starting in the NFL. To me, the Packers have given him so much opportunity, so many chances to grow that not all teams give their backup QB's. . . . . I don't think Flynn holds much resentment toward the Packers and I think this will be a pretty smooth process. Also, agents have found out that trying to strip the Packers of their rights will be met with the most furious fucking resistance, even trying is comparable to being a suicide bomber.

I'm betting Flynn gets us, minimum, a mid 2nd round pick, but probably more. And the team who takes him gets better.


I'd bet 3:2 odds that this thing goes smoothly and in the Packers favor. I think it's more likely than not and even if it doesn't work out in a really good way, I'd be 3:1 that it doesn't go badly.

Does his agent want the Packers to give up any chance for them to get something from this? Sure, but it's a standard part of the game. Agents trying to buck the system that much are rare and tend to end up hurting their client more than helping them. I highly doubt the agent tries to force the Packers hand in this standard proceedure.

[Harlan Huckleby]

To me, the idea that Thompson may not find a trading partner seems largely overblown.

Sure they'll find a trading partner, but you are looking at situation like it's a free market. Devil is in the details. The moment that the Packers sign Flynn, the Packers are over a barrell. Not a great position to bargain from. Other teams know this even if they make informal deal in advance.

[Joemailman]

Sure they'll find a trading partner, but you are looking at situation like it's a free market. Devil is in the details. The moment that the Packers sign Flynn, the Packers are over a barrell. Not a great position to bargain from. Other teams know this even if they make informal deal in advance.

The only way this works for the Packers is if there are several teams that want Flynn. Teams then might be more willing to make a deal with the Packers instead of getting into a possible bidding war later. In my opinion, the best chance for the Packers is if Philbin gets a HC position with a team that needs a QB. He may be able to convince the front office to make a deal with the Packers.

[mraynrand]

Sure they'll find a trading partner, but you are looking at situation like it's a free market. Devil is in the details. The moment that the Packers sign Flynn, the Packers are over a barrell. Not a great position to bargain from. Other teams know this even if they make informal deal in advance.

But the teams the Packers (Thompson) are likely to be dealing with will probably not want to poison the well. These GMs have to work with each other. Someone screws the Packers over and they get shit on for who knows how many years. Has MN made a deal recently with Seattle (Hutchinson)?

[Harlan Huckleby]

But the teams the Packers (Thompson) are likely to be dealing with will probably not want to poison the well. These GMs have to work with each other. Someone screws the Packers over and they get shit on for who knows how many years. Has MN made a deal recently with Seattle (Hutchinson)?

I'm not suggesting a team will double cross packers.

[Smidgeon]

It's something to watch. There may be ten teams (random number) looking for a QB this offseason. As a free agent, Flynn may be desirable to five (two draft one high, three don't want to spend that much). If the Packers tagged him and tried to trade him, adding an additional price of a draft pick may take three or four teams out of the running for his services. Which would leave one or two teams vying. That doesn't leave a lot of leverage for negotiating draft picks...