#1 SEEDS-- WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL IN THE PLAYOFFS AND WHY ?

[pbmax]

San Fran has all the ingredients, except talent. Weak division, weak schedule and an offense that turns red zone drives into FGs. Against an elite offense they will have no answer except to pray their defense turns them over.

Steelers without Mendenhall look less intimidating and Ben R and Pouncey are banged up. Their O line is more patchwork than the Packers was when Sherrod went out in KC.

In the AFC its the Ravens or Pats, though if the Steelers can get to the Ravens in the CG its a tossup.

In the NFC its the Saints and Giants to worry about, but I am less worried about the Saints on the road.

I see a more direct path to the Super Bowl this year than last. But given my record at prognostication, that might be a poor indicator.

[Guiness]

These are what he considers "the 10 most important statistical categories":

He pretty much acknowledges the arbitrariness of the 'list' by prefacing the article with "Lies, damn lies and statistics".

[Patler]

He pretty much acknowledges the arbitrariness of the 'list' by prefacing the article with "Lies, damn lies and statistics".

Acknowledging it doesn't make it any less dumb. In the end, the only thing that matters is the score. Of the categories he chose to rely on. the last two are the only ones that involve scoring; and I believe even those do not differentiate between touchdowns and field goals.

[Upnorth]

Acknowledging it doesn't make it any less dumb. In the end, the only thing that matters is the score. Of the categories he chose to rely on. the last two are the only ones that involve scoring; and I believe even those do not differentiate between touchdowns and field goals.

How you get to that score does matter though. Yards has an impact, but not as large as he is making it. A tired defence tends to make more mistakes. I agree he the stats he picks have less of an influanece on the score than those you point out, but they still have an influance. Long story short our D gives up to many points but gets th ball back in our O's hands quite often to win the game.

That being said my dream senario for the NFC playoffs is det over no, atl over nyg. Then gb over det, atl over sf. Then GB over atl and finally GB over den (revenge finally!). This is my dream, not what I expect.

[Patler]

How you get to that score does matter though. Yards has an impact, but not as large as he is making it. A tired defence tends to make more mistakes. I agree he the stats he picks have less of an influanece on the score than those you point out, but they still have an influance. Long story short our D gives up to many points but gets th ball back in our O's hands quite often to win the game.

That being said my dream senario for the NFC playoffs is det over no, atl over nyg. Then gb over det, atl over sf. Then GB over atl and finally GB over den (revenge finally!). This is my dream, not what I expect.

As far as that goes, I can't think of a single stat for which you can't draw some connection to scoring. Punts, punt returns, kick offs and kick returns all impact where drives are started and therefore impact scoring. I don't care which he included on his list, its the exclusion of the ones most directly related to game outcome (scoring, and scoring allowed) that make his analysis questionable in my mind.

[Lurker64]

As far as that goes, I can't think of a single stat for which you can't draw some connection to scoring.

Solo tackles (alternatively "assists"). It doesn't really matter how many people tackle the ballcarrier, provided he is tackled.

[Pugger]

Why? If Detroit wins, it either means they are better than we think, or that NO is worse than we think. Even if Detroit gets scorched, so what? NO scorches people at home and struggles on the road. If Detroit beats NO, doesn't it make them tougher to beat? They know (at least they think) they can score on us at will and they will have just beaten NO on the road. I'd much rather have NO win and have to face the Niners.

The Saints' pass defense is nearly as bad as ours and NE and they are not as dominate on the road. If Detroit doesn't self destruct they can go in there and give Brees and company a run for their money.

[Patler]

Solo tackles (alternatively "assists"). It doesn't really matter how many people tackle the ballcarrier, provided he is tackled.

(I won't argue about whether that is even a team stat.)

[Pugger]

New England has the unenviable position of (barring a Cincinnati upset of Houston) facing the Steelers in their first game. Of all the teams that the Patriots match up poorly against, the Steelers are right up there (I also think the Packers match up poorly this year with the Steelers.)

The Steelers with a hobbling Big Ben and without Mendenhall shouldn't put any fear in our hearts.

[RashanGary]

McCarthy was aksed about the defense a couple weeks ago. He said the loss of Nick Collins has really gone under the radar for how significant it was.

Collins, Tramon and Shields all played a simple game. The corners could man up and run. Collins could cover ground like no other so the window QB's had to fit a deep ball in was tiny, even when we played one safety high. It was our calling card defense.

With probably the fastest threesome of secondary players in the NFL (and surely the fastest 3 who were really good at taking away the deep ball with no help), we were wide open to let Woodson roam. We were also wide open to send jet rushes on 1st, 2nd or 3rd down, with an extra box defender taking care of the open gap.

Just my opinion here, but Collins is the best tackler I've ever seen. And he's brilliant at sifting through traffic, bending off would-be blocks and just finding a way to make plays happen. Similar to Bishop, but a superstar athlete to boot. It's a little thing, but he's a star runner too. Once he had the ball, it was like Ahman Green running. Tough, agile, fast, explosive, vision. . . . .

For as great as Collins was, he was even greater for this team. He'll go down as one of my favorite Packers of all time, even if he never plays another down.

I have this thing I like to call 12 man defense. When 3 guys can take away the deep ball, you're playing with 12 man defense and you can do all sorts of unpredictable shit off of that hang-your-hat base defense. The 12 man defense I see right now is the New York Giants. Osi is back and looks good. Osi, Tuck and Pierre Paul are all as good as Clay Matthews IMO. When you have three guys who can rush the passer like that, you can play all sorts of fun defense behind them. Shit, you can rush three and be far more likely than not to disrupt the QB or force an error.

The Giants scare the shit out of me. The bright side is, they play ATL ( a horrible matchup for them on the road) and if it comes here, it could be a bad weather game. In that situation, maybe having a fresh mudder like Grant (hasn't taken a beating all year and is starting to get his game shape back), a really healthy group of big guys (OL and DL both) and some home field noise. . . . . . It's rare, but shit, I'd almost rather play the Giants on a shit weather day. Osi and Tuck are better than they were in 2007. Strahan is gone, but enter in Pierre Paul. . . . . In a shootout, in a passing game, boy, I saw that Giant team eat Brady alive. It's the only game I've ever watched where Brady looked flustered. His eyes were big. He looked scared, frustrated. . . . . AR, as careful as he is, he does have the advantage over Brady in that he can run (and those DE's getting up field would give him the chance), but that team is ready to rock. To me, they're right with the Packers and Saints as front runners. The best DL I ever saw is a tie. This years healthy Giants and the 2007 Giants. They are fruckin scary. And Manning is way underrated to me. He's a better player now than in 07.

I've never lost an online bet. I just cashed out a couple hundred from some bets on last years SB. I have $50 left on there. Fuck, I might make a pyramid bet on the Giants.

[Pugger]

I think we should all light novena candles and pray Collins can come back in 2012.

[smuggler]

I don't care. On the one hand (DET wins) we certainly play Detroit, which I'd rather not.

On the other hand, NO stays alive, and we might end up playing them later on. I'd REALLY rather not.

[Pugger]

McCarthy was aksed about the defense a couple weeks ago. He said the loss of Nick Collins has really gone under the radar for how significant it was.

Collins, Tramon and Shields all played a simple game. The corners could man up and run. Collins could cover ground like no other so the window QB's had to fit a deep ball in was tiny, even when we played one safety high. It was our calling card defense.

With probably the fastest threesome of secondary players in the NFL (and surely the fastest 3 who were really good at taking away the deep ball with no help), we were wide open to let Woodson roam. We were also wide open to send jet rushes on 1st, 2nd or 3rd down, with an extra box defender taking care of the open gap.

Just my opinion here, but Collins is the best tackler I've ever seen. And he's brilliant at sifting through traffic, bending off would-be blocks and just finding a way to make plays happen. Similar to Bishop, but a superstar athlete to boot. It's a little thing, but he's a star runner too. Once he had the ball, it was like Ahman Green running. Tough, agile, fast, explosive, vision. . . . .

For as great as Collins was, he was even greater for this team. He'll go down as one of my favorite Packers of all time, even if he never plays another down.

I have this thing I like to call 12 man defense. When 3 guys can take away the deep ball, you're playing with 12 man defense and you can do all sorts of unpredictable shit off of that hang-your-hat base defense. The 12 man defense I see right now is the New York Giants. Osi is back and looks good. Osi, Tuck and Pierre Paul are all as good as Clay Matthews IMO. When you have three guys who can rush the passer like that, you can play all sorts of fun defense behind them. Shit, you can rush three and be far more likely than not to disrupt the QB or force an error.

The Giants scare the shit out of me. The bright side is, they play ATL ( a horrible matchup for them on the road) and if it comes here, it could be a bad weather game. In that situation, maybe having a fresh mudder like Grant (hasn't taken a beating all year and is starting to get his game shape back), a really healthy group of big guys (OL and DL both) and some home field noise. . . . . . It's rare, but shit, I'd almost rather play the Giants on a shit weather day. Osi and Tuck are better than they were in 2007. Strahan is gone, but enter in Pierre Paul. . . . . In a shootout, in a passing game, boy, I saw that Giant team eat Brady alive. It's the only game I've ever watched where Brady looked flustered. His eyes were big. He looked scared, frustrated. . . . . AR, as careful as he is, he does have the advantage over Brady in that he can run (and those DE's getting up field would give him the chance), but that team is ready to rock. To me, they're right with the Packers and Saints as front runners. The best DL I ever saw is a tie. This years healthy Giants and the 2007 Giants. They are fruckin scary. And Manning is way underrated to me. He's a better player now than in 07.

I've never lost an online bet. I just cashed out a couple hundred from some bets on last years SB. I have $50 left on there. Fuck, I might make a pyramid bet on the Giants.

I think Cliffy can handle Pierre Paul better than Newhouse did.

[woodbuck27]

Why? If Detroit wins, it either means they are better than we think, or that NO is worse than we think. Even if Detroit gets scorched, so what? NO scorches people at home and struggles on the road. If Detroit beats NO, doesn't it make them tougher to beat? They know (at least they think) they can score on us at will and they will have just beaten NO on the road. I'd much rather have NO win and have to face the Niners.

So your saying that you want the Saints to defeat the Lions which is likely the pick. The Saints then travel to Lambeau and we get past them in 'a best case scenario' shootout, as we would then most likely win the TO battle!

On the other side the 49ers run the table. Eventually San Fran comes to Lambeau and we get it together Vs them and advance to the Super Bowl.

mmmm .....I'll just go with 'the MJ Ziggy Factor'.

She'll pick Green Bay to win the NFC 'somehow'; and then 'of course' win the Super Bowl. I respect the 'MJ Ziggy Factor'. She trumps all NFL Experts...most NFL fans...and well.... she's seldom wrong this season.

Conclusion... IMO and observation. THIS THREAD IS MOOT inspite of the industrious efforts by the esteemed member that founded it. Thank goodness that MJ Ziggy is a Packer fan and that fact is pertinent and extremely fortunate for us.

Just sit back and drink your beer and eat your Nachos confidently. The Green Bay Packers will repeat.

That's 'the inside'..... GO PACK GO!

[Smidgeon]

Collins is also known to take bad angles at times. I wouldn't call him the greatest tackler though. He's sufficient.