Packers, Finley leaning towards long-term deal, agent says

[King Friday]

Tough to offer him an incentive deal on a team where the ball is going to get spread between 4-5 different receivers who all are very good. He can't do what Gronk and Graham do, even if he caught every pass thrown to him. The Pats and Saints don't have the depth at WR that we have, so their TEs see a lot more action.

Can't see Ted willing to pay more than $4M a year to the kid...can't see the kid accepting less than $4M prior to FA. Despite all the happy talk, I don't think this is going to end with a contract anytime soon.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I believe that TT is gonna pay Finley more than what many here think we should. Just have a feeling. Finley's got upside still and TT loves the players who are still ascending.

[Bretsky]

5 Yr 27 MIL is my guess

[Pugger]

Depends what you mean by "catch rate", catchable balls or targeted passes. You are referring to targeted passes. I suspect Upnorth was referring to drops. A drop rate of 5% (95% catch rate of catchable balls) would be outstanding, but not completely unreal. On the other hand, a drop rate of 30%-40% (catch rate of 60%-70% of catchable balls) would be absolutely horrible.

I scoured the internet looking for drop rates without much success.

[Patler]

I scoured the internet looking for drop rates without much success.

Ya, I have seen Finley "credited" with anywhere from 11 to 16 drops this season, depending on who does the evaluation. Even targeted passes can be misleading, because a sideline throw-away, or a throw out of the back of the endzone can be counted as targeted pass to the nearest receiver, even if the QB was just getting rid of it.

[smuggler]

A drop rate of 39% would quickly have Megatron out of the league. He catches 61% of passes thrown his way. Meanwhile, Finley had 13 drops in the reguar season.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Drops have not been a problem with Finley. Like Nelson last year, I think it's a one year fluke and he'll rebound with a monster year. Hopefully, for the Packers.

[smuggler]

Stats, Inc. is my source for drops. Drops are listed on the profile pages of WRs but not on the pages of TEs and RBs. However, since Finley had so many, he was in the league 'leader' section and that's how I know he officially had 10+ on the season.

[pbmax]

In the general world of NFL statistical info, drops are mostly proprietary and highly subjective. Those numbers, unless you subscribe to a stat service or they get mentioned in wire copy, are usually out of the public realm. Teams obviously have their own calculations. So comparing drops is tricky since not all of the data appears at once and can be hard to compile. Its also tough to figure the source in reported stories.

Targets, on the other hand (and Catch Rate) while they do suffer from the problem Patler has mentioned, are at least in the public realm (they are logged in the GameBooks the NFL keeps) and are published for each game immediately after the end of the game. Drops might tell you something about a particular receiver at a given time, but targets/catch rate will be better across teams, years and multiple players.

[smuggler]

The number of times a receiver is targeted per play is also a big indication of how often they are able to get open. Jimmy Graham, Wes Welker, Calvin Johnson are more likely to beat their man than some other guys in the league.

[Fritz]

I'm willing to sign him to a very good contract in the hopes he will become a superstar like Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez.

I just hope he's not the next Kellen Winslow.

If you ever saw Kellen Winslow's dad play (Kellen Sr.) you'd say you'd be happy if Finley was as good as Kellen Winslow (senior). Dude was great.

[Joemailman]

http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/corp/pa...ing/402?feed=2

Good article by Jason Wilde on Finley.

[MadtownPacker]

Drops have not been a problem with Finley. Like Nelson last year, I think it's a one year fluke and he'll rebound with a monster year. Hopefully, for the Packers.

I think you are right. He is the kind of weaker minded individual who would let the contract year fuck with him. If you can see this from the 13" B&W tv in your trailer Im sure TT will see it too.

[Lurker64]

If you have a guy with the upside of Finley who flashes the ability to reach his potential, you absolutely give him a second contract. The issue is whether he gets a third.

There is no reason to let Finley walk. You work out a long-term deal, and if you can't you franchise him and work out a long-term deal during the summer with the leverage of the tag looming overhead.

[pbmax]

If you ever saw Kellen Winslow's dad play (Kellen Sr.) you'd say you'd be happy if Finley was as good as Kellen Winslow (senior). Dude was great.

Kellen Winslow Sr. single handedly destroyed teams in the playoffs. If Gronk or Graham can block a FG in a playoff game to keep their team alive, then they might be onto something.