IF I am TT, HERE IS MY PLAN

[Joemailman]

And another thing.........and I will surely admit it when I'm wrong......and HOPEFULLY I am wrong.......happened lots before

But IMO you guys are smoking some really good jujuuuu if you think TT is going to be slick enough to get some teams offering up high picks for Matt Flynn

He got a 2nd for Corey Williams.

[Bretsky]

He got a 2nd for Corey Williams.

Honestly that was too easy. At that price, GB had little to lose, even if Williams came back. He was a pass rushing DL. Teams are always looking for them. But in the end, there was little risk. At worse we had Corey Williams back and we were ovepaying him a bit. He was still a solid starter.

Only a few teams would have interest in Flynn and TT will have to convince them to cough up a pick when they know Flynn is going free anyways. We can't franchise Flynn w/o a deal in place. That was not the case with CW

[Lurker64]

Worth noting is that when the Patriots franchised Matt Cassel, they already had the framework of a deal agreed upon with Kansas City. So it's not like this is impossible. That was, of course, facilitated by the fact that there were some close ties between those two organizations, but it's not like most of the likely suitors for Flynn don't have a Packer connection. Seattle has Schneider, Cleveland has Holmgren, and Miami has Philbin. So it's not like it would be unthinkable to deal with any of these three teams quickly and quietly.

[Patler]

Honestly that was too easy. At that price, GB had little to lose, even if Williams came back. He was a pass rushing DL. Teams are always looking for them. But in the end, there was little risk. At worse we had Corey Williams back and we were ovepaying him a bit. He was still a solid starter.

Only a few teams would have interest in Flynn and TT will have to convince them to cough up a pick when they know Flynn is going free anyways. We can't franchise Flynn w/o a deal in place. That was not the case with CW

That's the big difference. If a deal fell through for Cory Wlliams, they had a very useful player at an OK cost for their salary cap. If they franchise Flynn and a deal falls through, they have a guy who will hopefully contribute nothing, because he won't play; and their salary cap situation is screwed.

They didn't have to trade Williams, they would absolutely have to trade Flynn. Very different bargaining positions. On the other side of a deal, almost any team can use another DL (we can argue if Williams was worth the contract or not), only a few teams are willing to invest a big contract in an unproven QB. The market is smaller for Flynn than it was for Williams.

[ThunderDan]

I don't know about that guys.

I agree with your logic but it seems like the player that flashes once or twice and then has to sit and wait generates more buzz than the consistant D-Line starter.

People want the next ARod or Brees and Flynn has shown in VERY limited play that maybe he can do that. The promise alone gets people overly excited and gets them to do rash things.

[sharpe1027]

The franchise tag is guaranteed money, so they couldn't even cut him once he's tagged. That's a huge gamble to take. They better be pretty damn sure that they have a trade partner.

[HarveyWallbangers]

And another thing.........and I will surely admit it when I'm wrong......and HOPEFULLY I am wrong.......happened lots before

But IMO you guys are smoking some really good jujuuuu if you think TT is going to be slick enough to get some teams offering up high picks for Matt Flynn

What do you mean by high? I think he could fetch a 2nd or 3rd round pick--which would make it a little better than letting him walk in FA and getting a compensatory. Might not be worth the gambling, but I wouldn't be surprised if a deal is already in place with another team. I think Thompson needs to feel like he is absolutely certain he can trade Flynn. Otherwise, it's not worth the risk.

[Patler]

I don't know about that guys.

I agree with your logic but it seems like the player that flashes once or twice and then has to sit and wait generates more buzz than the consistant D-Line starter.

People want the next ARod or Brees and Flynn has shown in VERY limited play that maybe he can do that. The promise alone gets people overly excited and gets them to do rash things.

I don't disagree with that, but you also have to look at the "what if" in each.

What if no deal is made for Williams? - No problem. A little extra cap is spent, but not crippling at that time at all. The Packers were in a very healthy cap situation at the time, and were not yet flush with young productive players looking to be resigned. They probably would have been happy to keep Williams for just a bit less than the tender amount anyway.

What if no deal is made for Fynn? - It puts a big crimp on what the Packers can do. It throws away millions and millions of cap dollars, and probably results in losing another player or two that they would have preferred to keep. Basically, they will have given away $14 million cap dollars, or so. The effect of that can spill over for several years as other possible extensions are delayed, or another player is lost to FA.

It will be great if TT can pull something off with someone he trusts. An extra 2nd round pick would be nice to have this year. But it will have to be a "done deal" before Flynn is tendered.

[mission]

I think the 'gambling with the salary' thing is way overblown. They aren't going to tag him if they don't have a deal in place... these guys aren't blackjack players, they're calculated businessmen.

[sharpe1027]

Mission, that was exactly my point. It would be a huge gamble if they didn't already have a deal in place. Thus, they probably wouldn't tag him without assurances of a trade partner.

[mission]

Twitter rumor today is that TT is talking to the Browns about it ... I'm on my phone but there's a thread on another board about it.

[Patler]

I think the 'gambling with the salary' thing is way overblown. They aren't going to tag him if they don't have a deal in place... these guys aren't blackjack players, they're calculated businessmen.

Isn't that what most are saying?

[smuggler]

Another thing that Green Bay can do, which few people are talking about is this:

Once you tag Flynn, you are guaranteeing him with the 14.4 mil, if he wants it. That's a lot of money for Flynn to turn down. However, if he has confidence in himself, he might be tempted to NOT sign that franchise sheet. If he doesn't, it really improves the chances of GB trading him to a team where he can start, at which point he can sign a long contract and get paid.

Another thing: Green Bay could offer him a contract with a $4 million bonus - a bonus big enough to make this contract appealing to Flynn - and a large base salary, like say, 8 million - a salary large enough to prevent Green Bay from going back on the deal and keeping Flynn as a backup for another year. Remember: Flynn WANTS to be traded as opposed to facing the tag and another year in Green Bay. He WANTS to start. If he won't sign this contract, GB might still use the tag. Then, once Flynn is traded, he can sign a new contract, and everyone's happy.

What does Flynn get out of that? $4million in cold hard bonus cash, that's before he even goes to the bargaining table with our trade partner! What does GB get? A second round pick or better, as opposed to the 3rd round comp pick in the 2013 draft.

[sharpe1027]

Smuggler, I don't see what Flynn gains by accepting a $4 mil bonus with a $8 mil salary. Is the $8 mil guaranteed? Is so, the Packers gain nothing compared to franchising him (still on the hook for $14 mill total). If not, the Flynn has less guaranteed money. If I were Flynn, I'd prefer to have $14 million guaranteed rather than $4 million. There is zero chance that the Packers keep him on the bench and pay him $14 million, so I doubt he is concerned about that. The guaranteed money would be the starting point for any negotiations with a trade partner.

[Patler]

Another thing that Green Bay can do, which few people are talking about is this:

Once you tag Flynn, you are guaranteeing him with the 14.4 mil, if he wants it. That's a lot of money for Flynn to turn down. However, if he has confidence in himself, he might be tempted to NOT sign that franchise sheet. If he doesn't, it really improves the chances of GB trading him to a team where he can start, at which point he can sign a long contract and get paid.

Another thing: Green Bay could offer him a contract with a $4 million bonus - a bonus big enough to make this contract appealing to Flynn - and a large base salary, like say, 8 million - a salary large enough to prevent Green Bay from going back on the deal and keeping Flynn as a backup for another year. Remember: Flynn WANTS to be traded as opposed to facing the tag and another year in Green Bay. He WANTS to start. If he won't sign this contract, GB might still use the tag. Then, once Flynn is traded, he can sign a new contract, and everyone's happy.

What does Flynn get out of that? $4million in cold hard bonus cash, that's before he even goes to the bargaining table with our trade partner! What does GB get? A second round pick or better, as opposed to the 3rd round comp pick in the 2013 draft.

At this stage of his life, having made little as a professional player to date (relatively speaking!) Flynn would be a fool not to sign the franchise tender almost immediately. The franchise tag salary is guaranteed from the time he signs it, so if he is injured while working out, etc. he gets his $14+ million. If he does not sign it, the Packers can not trade him anymore than they can trade another unsigned player.

Your other scenario does not seem particularly good for wither Flynn or the Packers. Even if they trade him, the bonus counts against the Packers' cap, so they will have paid $4 million for whatever draft pick they get on a trade, and Flynn would get less than the franchise tag offers, with only a small portion of it guaranteed. Since the Packers will likely get a draft pick for him even if he leaves in FA, is it worth throwing away $4 million in cap space just to move up a round or two? Probably not.