Official "WTF TT?" draft picks theory and speculation thread

[ThunderDan]

I don't think this is crazy crazy but TT drafts Peter Konz C from Wisconsin.

Why is this crazy? The Packers had a top 2 O last year and a bottom 2 D. The Packers should be looking at DL, OLB and S.

Why this is less crazy than you think? TT drafts best player available and if Konz falls to our pick, unless one of the premium edge players also falls, I think TT can't pass up the value of finding the OL leader for the next 10 years. Konz has all of the tools to be a stud at the next level. Also, if Scott Wells decides to sign a 4 year $27M contract somewhere else we are going to need a center for 2012.

[smuggler]

16 reps on the bench. I don't want an OL that I can outbench.

[Upnorth]

The senario: trade up in second round, then trade back into second round using most of remaining picks.

Why this is crazy: well duh, TT trades down to accumulate not up, plus we need depth.

Why this isn't crazy: we have pretty good depth already, and TT has previously nailed on trade back into the 1st round in the pa(CMIII). There is supposed to be good depth right to the mid / end of the second round. If we have a 1st and 2 2nd round picks we should get at least one impact player and hopefully 2. Everyone is projecting us as having a lot of extra picks for compensation so we can still get depth.

[Smeefers]

I wish I could come up with a scenario for you, but I'm not very good at looking into my draft crystal ball. All I see is blood and crying and lots of apologies. What I do think is that TT doesn't really give a rip about position. Now, don't get me wrong, if he grades a bunch of guys out at B and they're all sitting, waiting for him, he'll go with a pass rusher or cb, or whatever he thinks is our greatest need. If there's one B+ and the rest of his B's, and that B+ happens to be a WR or a TE, he'll pick em. It's how he rolls. Sometimes I wish it wasn't, but it's what he does. It's also why he'll move up to grab someone he likes. If he sees an A in a storm of B-'s, he'll jump up and get him. I'm pretty confident that whatever pick TT makes, it'll have value.

I know everyone here already knows all this stuff, but I can't find anything to comment on, so this was it. I miss regular season football.

[wist43]

I think all of you are crazy if you think TT will do anything to help the defense.

He will draft 36 DL,LB, and DB's in rds 6-7 to shore up the defense in 4 years.

So, in conclusion?? We need defense, we're stacked at WR... so obviously TT is going to take a WR in rd. 1 - to draw any other conclusion would be crazy

[Smidgeon]

No QB is drafted this year.

Why is this crazy? Flynn will be leaving via Free Agency, Rodgers has a concussion history (if slight), and the only other QBs on the roster haven't proven they even belong as clipboard carriers in the NFL.

Why this is less crazy than you think? Because TT has confidence in M3's ability to mold an NFL QB out of dirt. Or tundra. And because it's TT.

[Joemailman]

I think all of you are crazy if you think TT will do anything to help the defense.

He will draft 36 DL,LB, and DB's in rds 6-7 to shore up the defense in 4 years.

So, in conclusion?? We need defense, we're stacked at WR... so obviously TT is going to take a WR in rd. 1 - to draw any other conclusion would be crazy

Didn't you say this before the 2009 draft?

[wist43]

Didn't you say this before the 2009 draft?

The Raji pick put much more squarely in support of TT, but you could tell he didn't want to make the pick... TT had Crabtree rated higher, and went against his board and principles - his breaking ranks with his own philosophy is what put us over the top and won us a SB. If he doesn't draft Raji, and if he doesn't trade up for Matthews, we don't win the SB last year.

Now that we've won one, I suppose we can go back to drafting 6 OL, 6 RB's, 8 WR's, and a QB... I'm sure our next starting OLB is tending bar somewhere right now.

[Lurker64]

TT had Crabtree rated higher, and went against his board and principles

I find it impossible to believe that you know this. As far as I know (and I would know) TT has never came out and published his board or said anything about how he specific players were ranked in relation to anyway.

Anyway, having a wide receiver rated ahead of a defensive tackle is nonsensical when you realize that actual NFL teams do not arrange their boards vertically (at least Ted Thompson does not), they arrange their boards horizontally and rank vertically within position groups. Raji was the top rated (or 2nd rated) DL in the high first round tier, Crabtree was the top rated WR in the high first round tier. Whether you take the WR or the DT is a conversation you have weeks before the draft. Thompson knew he was taking Raji (and probably Jackson) ahead of Crabtree probably at the beginning of March.

[Bretsky]

2 THREAD REQUEST FOR LURKER

Can you post a summary of the cominbine numbers for ...perhaps a list of names along with how they tested out

1. OLB's ?
and
2. DL ?

I'm curious as to how some of these guys graded out and I was unable to watch much of the combine. I keep trying to sign up for espn insider but they recognize my email address as being somebody else

[Lurker64]

2 THREAD REQUEST FOR LURKER

Can you post a summary of the cominbine numbers for ...perhaps a list of names along with how they tested out

1. OLB's ?
and
2. DL ?

I'm curious as to how some of these guys graded out and I was unable to watch much of the combine. I keep trying to sign up for espn insider but they recognize my email address as being somebody else

When I know more, I'll let you know. Right now all we really have is the raw data and you have to massage it a little bit in order to figure out what it actually means (since nobody actually runs a 3 cone drill in an NFL game.)

For OLBs, the early results that at 28 it has to be one of Andre Branch, Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus, or Ronnell Lewis (assuming Ingram and Upshaw are gone, Ingram will be, Upshaw had a pretty awful combine.) Of those, Mercilus would be the riskiest of the bunch, followed by Lewis, Branch, with Perry being a fairly low risk bet. There aren't really any other OLBs that (right now) seem to be worth a first round pick though some of those guys would be might be worth a day 2 pick (Penn State's Crawford, WVU's Bruce Irvin, Arkansas' Bequette Arkansas, and Syracuse's Jones are worth looks later.) I know you like Curry, but the combine raised some questions about his first step (it's not what we hoped it would be) and how he times at his pro day will be important.

"Safe" or "risky" here being a description of the conversion prospect's ability to play a 3-4 OLB in the NFL. Rounds graded by upside, risk as the probability of reaching that upside. I haven't figured out a way to model the "Everybody from Clemson is terrible in the NFL" factor, so you might not want to buy into Andre Branch. Seriously, the Clemson thing is creepy... it's like Penn State RBs, except it's Clemson everything.

For the DEs, the top tier is Still, Poe, Cox, and Brockers in some order. Pretty big fall off after those guys, but Reyes and Worthy are borderline bottom of the first guys (Reyes>Worthy, IMO).

[pbmax]

I find it impossible to believe that you know this. As far as I know (and I would know) TT has never came out and published his board or said anything about how he specific players were ranked in relation to anyway.

Anyway, having a wide receiver rated ahead of a defensive tackle is nonsensical when you realize that actual NFL teams do not arrange their boards vertically (at least Ted Thompson does not), they arrange their boards horizontally and rank vertically within position groups. Raji was the top rated (or 2nd rated) DL in the high first round tier, Crabtree was the top rated WR in the high first round tier. Whether you take the WR or the DT is a conversation you have weeks before the draft. Thompson knew he was taking Raji (and probably Jackson) ahead of Crabtree probably at the beginning of March.

McGinn reported later that spring that Crabtree was the highest rated prospect left on the board at the pick. Anonymously sourced of course, but its not been contradicted that I know of.

[Lurker64]

McGinn reported later that spring that Crabtree was the highest rated prospect left on the board at the pick. Anonymously sourced of course, but its not been contradicted that I know of.

Well, I think that there's a misinterpretation about what this actually means. Here's how you set up an NFL draft board:

You start out with giving each prospect you are considering a numerical grade along the same lines of speculating how the player can impact the team (i.e. starter or roleplayer), how the player can impact the game (does he create mismatches, is he a liability against something), and how quickly he will come into his own (first year starter, first year contributor, project, etc.) This numerical grade has flags added to it to indicate potential concerns (coming off injury, character questions, intelligence questions, etc.)

Then you assemble each position group according to the grades. You take all the prospects you would project to a specific position and rank them according to their grades, vertically.

Then you assemble your board by arranging all the position groups horizontally, and you draw lines in each position group to establish tiers. The players above this line are elite, the players above this line are high first round picks, the players above this line are late first round picks or high second round picks, etc. Then you cross off players as they are taken.

When pick #9 came Crabtree was absolutely the top remaining player in the WR group and Raji was the top remaining player in the DL group, and it's entirely possible that Crabtree had a higher grade than Raji since Crabtree had a grade "Becomes a starter during his rookie year" and Raji had a grade "Contributes first year and starts second year" and by that criterion then Raji would deserve a lower grade, and this would be a condition under which McGinn's sourced statement is technically correct but still misleading.

Since "higher grade" is a combination of upside, time to reach upside, and probability to reach upside. You can easily have a lower grade on a player with a higher ceiling because of bust potential or projected difficulty or time to approach his ceiling, and on the recommendation of coaches take the lower graded player because the coaches are confident in their ability to help the player overcome whatever it is (since this isn't something that scouts are qualified to comment on), or you're taking the long view and you don't need an immediate starter.

So it's entirely likely that Crabtree was given a 7.0 and Raji given a 6.9, and thus Crabtree was the highest rated prospect, but Thompson and the staff considered Raji a better player in the long term, and a player who would help the team more. In this scenario Thompson in no way "went against his board and his principles", and I'm pretty sure this is what actually happened. It's just slightly irresponsible since people's mental image is of "Mel Kiper's Big Board".

[sharpe1027]

The Scenario: Trade first round pick for picks next year.

Why this is crazy: The Packers have good depth and don't need to stockpile picks. The need a couple key upgrades. The team is primed to win it all next year so giving up one drafting a potential stud in the first round is just plain stupid.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: The Packers up against the cap for the first time in awhile and may like the idea of freeing up a little money by trading away their first round money, making it a little bit easier to afford veterans like Driver and Clifton. The Packer's are in this for the long haul and if they can pick up value in future drafts, they won't turn it down just because it isn't a popular move with fans.

[pbmax]

Bretsky, JSO has done some of the work for you. For OLB only.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/140806933.html