Official Packers @ Sanfrancisco Divisional Playoff Round 2012

[denverYooper]

Some food for thought: http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2013/...reat-football/

I posted a link to Cosell on a podcast from earlier in the season saying something similar about Rodgers reluctance to make throws and leaving plays on the field. He also notes that Rodgers can kill a defense on 3rd and long with his ability. His basic premise seems to be that Rodgers has the talent to make any throw but he is not utilizing that talent.

But this gets back to the risk/reward conversation with Rodgers because that offense puts a big premium on not turning the ball over and so I think he errs on the side of caution, especially in close games. The Packers do seem to open it up when they need points though (Giants game notwithstanding) and I think they are comfortable letting a game stay close feeling like their offense can throttle up as needed against most teams.

[denverYooper]

Also, some various stats: blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01/08/power-and-precision-kaepernick-rodgers-air-it-out-with-accuracy/

On Saturday, Kaepernick will oppose Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, who can make that throw and many more. In fact, by one metric, Saturday’s divisional-playoff game will pit the NFL’s most accurate deep-ball passers.

Among quarterbacks with at least 30 passes that have traveled 20-plus yards downfield, Kaepernick ranks first with an accuracy percentage of 60.6, according to Pro Football Focus. Second? That would be Rodgers at 53.2.

On Saturday, they will attempt their long lasers against above-average secondaries.

Quarterbacks had a 76.8 rating against the Packers, the fourth-lowest in the NFL. The 49ers held quarterbacks to a 78.0 rating, which ranked sixth. Both teams allowed seven passes of at least 40 yards, which was tied for 10th in the league.

Here’s a look at the NFL most accurate deep-ball passers, per PFF (Note: Alex Smith had an accuracy percentage of 50.0, completing 9 of 18 such passes with no drops):

1. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers

Attempts of 20-plus yards: 33

Completions: 19

Drops: 1

Accuracy percentage: 60.6

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Attempts of 20-plus yards: 62

Completions: 26

Drops: 7

Accuracy percentage: 53.2

3. Peyton Manning, Broncos

Attempts of 20-plus yards: 72

Completions: 33

Drops: 5

Accuracy percentage: 52.8

[denverYooper]

Some food for thought: http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2013/...reat-football/

I posted a link to Cosell on a podcast from earlier in the season saying something similar about Rodgers reluctance to make throws and leaving plays on the field. He also notes that Rodgers can kill a defense on 3rd and long with his ability. His basic premise seems to be that Rodgers has the talent to make any throw but he is not utilizing that talent.

But this gets back to the risk/reward conversation with Rodgers because that offense puts a big premium on not turning the ball over and so I think he errs on the side of caution, especially in close games. The Packers do seem to open it up when they need points though (Giants game notwithstanding) and I think they are comfortable letting a game stay close feeling like their offense can throttle up as needed against most teams.

Cosell must have gotten some commentary from angry Packers fans:

He commented on it:

Just to clarify re: Rodgers, I added that his exceptional ability to play outside structure + make remarkable throws separates him.

[pbmax]

This is what set the storm off. People are urging Wilde to ask Rodgers about this on the radio show:

Grant Cohn @grantcohn
Cosell: "I don't think Aaron Rodgers is playing particularly great football." #49ers #Packers http://bit.ly/SiaZ7C

[mraynrand]

Collinsworthless said it the other night - and others have echoed it - that Rodger's numbers were so gaudy last year, that he's being compared to that, rather than to the NFL; still they compared him with Manning and it's essentially a dead heat. I say ignore all the comments and just win games.

[Guiness]

Also, some various stats: blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01/08/power-and-precision-kaepernick-rodgers-air-it-out-with-accuracy/

Interesting write-up. That seemed like a lot of 20+ attempts for how long he's been starting, but I checked, and Kaepernick has started 7 games. Extrapolating the numbers, he's made less 20+ attempts than Manning and more than Rodgers, so about right.

I wonder what accounts for that long ball accuracy? Certainly the low number of drops have helped. Crabtree has 15 catches, Davis 12, Walker 9 and Moss 7 = 43 long balls for the team. Since 19 of those are from Kaepernick, it seem that mean Smith had more long balls in his 9 games.

I don't like that the TEs combined for 21 of those catches. Who's going to be covering those guys?

[mraynrand]

Interesting write-up. That seemed like a lot of 20+ attempts for how long he's been starting, but I checked, and Kaepernick has started 7 games. Extrapolating the numbers, he's made less 20+ attempts than Manning and more than Rodgers, so about right.

I wonder what accounts for that long ball accuracy? Certainly the low number of drops have helped. Crabtree has 15 catches, Davis 12, Walker 9 and Moss 7 = 43 long balls for the team. Since 19 of those are from Kaepernick, it seem that mean Smith had more long balls in his 9 games.

I don't like that the TEs combined for 21 of those catches. Who's going to be covering those guys?

play action

[Guiness]

play action

What's that? I've heard of it, distant memory though.

[denverYooper]

No Jordy or McMillan in the jogthrough portion of practice.

[mission]

Really appreciate everyone's reporting in here! Makes for a good catchup after work.

[Bossman641]

Regarding Rodgers' low int numbers

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/pos...-aaron-rodgers

On the eve of his fourth trip to the NFL playoffs, Aaron Rodgers sat down with broadcaster Bob Costas and obliged a big-picture conversation.

The Green Bay Packers quarterback has started a Pro Bowl. He has won the league's MVP award and was the MVP of Super Bowl XLV. What's left to accomplish?

The "L-Word."

Legacy.

A total of 29 quarterbacks have won Super Bowl titles. Only 11 have won multiple championships, as the chart shows, and that achievement represents the next step on Rodgers' career path. His style makes him ideally suited for the historic profile of multiple champions, and he isn't hiding from the meaning of a second Super Bowl as Saturday night's divisional-round game at the San Francisco 49ers approaches.

"I really believe that you earn your paycheck during the season," Rodgers told Costas. "[You] play at a high level and get your team to the playoffs. And then the postseason is all about creating your legacy. The great quarterbacks are remembered for their playoff successes and triumphs and Super Bowl championships and Super Bowl MVPs. We've got one here, and we want to add to that."

Rodgers is universally considered one of the NFL's top quarterbacks (near-unanimous, at least). Still, there are many examples in league history of elite quarterbacks who couldn't win multiple championships. Look no further than Rodgers' predecessor in Green Bay.

So what could separate Rodgers? Simply put, he is the least error-prone quarterback in league history.

Turnover totals are among the most reliable indicators of team success, and for quarterbacks, that mostly means interceptions. As you may know, Rodgers has, by far, the lowest interception rate -- interceptions per attempt -- in NFL history.

Most focus on yards, completion percentage and touchdowns in this fantasy age, but you might not realize that Rodgers has thrown only 46 interceptions in 2,665 regular-season attempts over his career. His corresponding interception percentage of 1.73 is well ahead of the second-best in history, the 2.06 percent of the New England Patriots' Tom Brady, and is among the few statistics that don't have to be curved for the modern-day explosion in NFL passing numbers.

In his seven playoff starts, Rodgers has thrown four interceptions over 253 attempts. That percentage of 1.58 is fourth-best in postseason history. It's worth noting that in his four most recent games -- the final three of the regular season and Saturday's wild-card victory over the Minnesota Vikings -- Rodgers hasn't thrown a single interception while tossing 11 touchdowns.

Why are we locking in so heavily on interceptions? I recognize that more goes into winning championships than a quarterback who doesn't throw picks. If that were the only criterion, cautious quarterbacks such as Alex Smith (10 interceptions over the past two seasons) would have multiple rings.

For the purposes of this post, let's accept that we've limited ourselves to excellent quarterbacks. We're trying to determine what can elevate them into the best of the best.

The gang at Cold Hard Football Facts tracks this topic in great detail on their insider site. The correlation between interceptions and victories, especially in the playoffs, is overwhelming.

This season, teams that threw fewer interceptions than their opponents won 80 percent of their games. As playoff intensity ramped up beginning in Week 14, that winning percentage jumped to 95.7. Since Rodgers became their starter in 2008, the Packers have won 90.2 percent of their games in those situations.

Taking care of the ball is especially critical in the playoffs between teams that are presumably closer-matched than in the regular season. In a study updated through most of 2009, CHFF found that a team's chances of winning a playoff game drops about 20 percentage points with every interception it throws. Teams whose quarterback threw just one interception in a playoff game won only 56 percent of their games. Two interceptions dropped that winning percentage to 31.4.

You might think we're hashing our way to an obvious conclusion. Interceptions are bad. We know that. But it's not that Rodgers simply avoids interceptions. Over a five-year span, he has avoided them to a substantially better degree than any quarterback in league history. History tells us the Packers have a better playoff advantage with Rodgers than most any other quarterback. Ever.

Consider Rodgers' predecessor, Brett Favre -- who threw five interceptions in 12 career playoff victories and 23 in 10 postseason defeats with Green Bay. In the three playoff games that led to his only Super Bowl victory, Favre threw one interception in 71 attempts.

On its own, a dearth of interceptions won't take Rodgers and the Packers to another championship. But it probably provides the clearest path to building that legacy.

[denverYooper]

Thanks for that Bossman.

Nice work from Seifert arguing Rodgers's style and tying the CHFF interception stats about the increased importance of ball security in the playoffs. I had a similar notion earlier after reading Cosell's post but didn't have time to flesh it out today.

No doubt McCarthy's drilled those numbers into the team as well. From what I know of the Packers, they pay quite a bit of attention to analytics.

[denverYooper]

It's also noteworthy that Green Bay is the only NFC team has made it to the divisional round 3 years in a row, with a fair amount in variation of their starting lineup. When is it time to give M3 and this staff credit for being among the current greats?

I was thinking about this today while driving to work: Green Bay just feels dialed in. By that, I mean I think they know who they are now and they have a plan to do some damage in the playoffs. They have a dangerous, EXPERIENCED team with the only QB in the NFC who has a record of performance in the playoffs. That is huge, IMO, and gets into the area of intangibles.

Now, I don't know if they win Saturday. But man, they feel right. You get the sense that this is a confident bunch. Not cocky, but confident and ready. They played 10 games this year against teams >0.500 and won 5. A lot of them have been here before, many were part of the Superbowl team, many part of the playoff disaster last season. The Niners are good too, and were inches away from the Superbowl last year. There's no mystery as to how they got the 2 seed. So this is going to be a tough game. Tough.

I personally think it's going to be a great game, and I like how the Packers feel right now. I'm pretty pumped for Saturday night.

[mraynrand]

What's that? I've heard of it, distant memory though.

[call_me_ishmael]

This game scares me. While SF hasn't been playing their best ball as of late, there is still a ton of talent on that team.

What does everyone think of Kapernick? He seems to have cooled off since his hot start. Hopefully his hot start was a result of limited tape versus unbelievable talent. Hopefully the Pack can shut him down.

I'm thinking it's going to take 25 points to win the game. I hope we can do it against that tough D.