THE draft thread (2013 version)

[wist43]

On average, from here until the draft is finished, we get to pick one in every 15 picks

10 is better than 5. Common sense, dummies

Funny, I just calculated TT's success rate in the 4th round and later... and guess what ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ it comes out to 1 out of every 15 picks.

Coincidence? or Karma??

[RashanGary]

Uh, yeah, that fuckin sucks. . . .

On a side note, CBS sports had their big board. 97 players were drafted in the last two days. 85 of the those players were listed on CBS sports top 97. That's pretty good. Only 12 players picked that weren't in their top 97. I don't know how reliable everyone else is, but that's pretty friggin reliable right there.

[Bretsky]

Can you post the link ??

[RashanGary]

This does beg the question, do we over inflate TT's ability to pick later in the draft? More importantly, does he over-inflate his ability to draft late in the draft. Finally, this fucking sucks. I wish we had more high picks.

[King Friday]

I agree 100% with you on this one Wist.

Regardless of how good the GM is...the statistical likelihood of landing a starting caliber player after the 3rd round is small. After the 5th round, it becomes virtually nil.

Ted gave up premium draft position today for what amounts to target fodder. I like Jones and Lacy...but we need a hell of a lot more than that when you consider we sit on our thumb in free agency.

[Brandon494]

Umm Jolly was a stud, Flynn was a steal, Crosby has been a solid kicker for the most part, Starks was a big part of a SB run giving the running game a boost, and half of those guys its way too early to put a grade on them.

[RashanGary]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/drafttracker

Counted wrong, B. I'ts 83 of 97. I just counted 14 players still on their board that were in the top 97. Since 14 were wrong, 83 had to be right.

85% of their top 97 actually went in the top 97. Where I went to school, that's worthy of a B grade.

[RashanGary]

I'm kinda with Brandon here, Wist. I'd just take out the last two drafts all together, then add Jolly and Flynn to your list of decent players.

[RashanGary]

You just can't judge a draft until 3 years later. Take out the last two drafts, and you have 37 players. Add Jolly and Flynn to the list of quality roster spots and you have 8. That's a 22% hit rate.

[Bretsky]

I'm kinda with Brandon here, Wist. I'd just take out the last two drafts all together, then add Jolly and Flynn to your list of decent players.

Man, let's say you take out the last two years of drafts

That cup is pretty dam bare

[Bretsky]

Sitton Lang Bishop....I do consider those 3 legit starters
Crosby....ya...give credit....but one team every year drafts the best kicker in college GB and he almost always makes the team

[Bretsky]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/drafttracker

Counted wrong, B. I'ts 83 of 97. I just counted 14 players still on their board that were in the top 97. Since 14 were wrong, 83 had to be right.

85% of their top 97 actually went in the top 97. Where I went to school, that's worthy of a B grade.

That is impressive

[RashanGary]

Man, let's say you take out the last two years of drafts

That cup is pretty dam bare

Let's not judge the last two years yet is what I"m saying, so take those out of this analysis. Look at 37 players, not 55 or whatever it was he was looking at. It's too early for a bunch of them. He sort of sliced and diced those numbers to look as bad as possible by leaving in 1st and 2nd year guys taken at developmental points in the draft. Then he subtracted the three that might turn out from the total number and left the ones he's certain won't turn out in the number. . . I don't think the way he went about using his numbers matched up with common football knowledge (AKA, you can't judge a draft for 3 years)

If you buy into the, "you can't judge a draft for 3 years" saying, and you like the Jolly and Flynn picks, 22% is the hit rate. Wist has it at 5%.

[Bretsky]

I guess when I looked through, I considered the legit starters, if you take those years out, to be Sitton, Lang, and Bishop. If you can't judge the others yet, then you have to remove the marshmellow and I think Wilson as well.

To be honest when Wist provided that list it was shocking to me what a bigger percentage did not turn out better. I would have guessed it was much better than it is after looking at the list on the pc.

[wist43]

I'm kinda with Brandon here, Wist. I'd just take out the last two drafts all together, then add Jolly and Flynn to your list of decent players.

Nobody liked Jolly more than me - but, the fact remains he headcased himself out of the league. I do hope he makes it back and contributes, but we can't count on that - even if the report that he was overweight and out of shape was bogus, he still has a steep hill to climb.

You can count Flynn as a quality backup - he's started 2 games in his career. For all we know he'll flame out. He's being given a shot. As for Starks, he's been a flash in the pan that did just like every other Packer did during our SB run - played out of his ass for 5-6 games, returned to earth, and promptly disappeared. He doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a consistent pro. I don't count Starks.

There's way too many of those spitballs not sticking to the wall. The numbers don't support what TT is doing. He already has an entire roster of low round draft choices and street FA's. All he's doing is constantly churning the bottom of the roster hoping he finds something. He doesn't need low round draft choices to do that, he can do that in FA - he's been doing that in FA.

What he needs to do is give us some front line talent that can fire live bullets back at the Niners and the other bullies on the block, and he's not doing that. Jones will help, as I expect he'll be on the field; Lacy is going from running behind the best OL in college football, and actually better than the Packers line, to the Green Bay Packers who routinely get pushed all over the field and can't get out of their own way in the running game... those wide open spaces Lacy was running thru behind Bama's dominating OL aint gonna be there in GB.