If things go right.......

[Patler]

Let's just assume that things go right on offense, and:

- everyone stays basically healthy
- the shuffling makes the O-line better, even if not fantastic
- the new backs and commitment by MM make defenses at least pay some attention to the running game
- Finley plays more like the 2nd half of 2012 than like the 1st half; and
- one of the new young WR's with impressive speed provides a new option on offense

I'm not expecting massive changes for any of the above, just a noticeable improvement. Blind side protection better, running game noticeable, Finley at least consistent (doesn't have to be an All-Pro), a deep threat burner appears, even if not real frequently.

If those readily achievable goals are attained, what kind of season can Rodgers have? If he is facing defenses that can no loner completely ignore the run, with defensive backfields loosened up just a bit, and he is more confident in his blind side protection, will he exceed his performance of 2011?

[denverYooper]

Yes.

[Carolina_Packer]

Let's just assume that things go right on offense, and:

- everyone stays basically healthy
- the shuffling makes the O-line better, even if not fantastic
- the new backs and commitment by MM make defenses at least pay some attention to the running game
- Finley plays more like the 2nd half of 2012 than like the 1st half; and
- one of the new young WR's with impressive speed provides a new option on offense

I'm not expecting massive changes for any of the above, just a noticeable improvement. Blind side protection better, running game noticeable, Finley at least consistent (doesn't have to be an All-Pro), a deep threat burner appears, even if not real frequently.

If those readily achievable goals are attained, what kind of season can Rodgers have? If he is facing defenses that can no loner completely ignore the run, with defensive backfields loosened up just a bit, and he is more confident in his blind side protection, will he exceed his performance of 2011?

If they can really establish a run game/threat, you have to think that's going to increase the deception of the offense. Defenses have typically known what the Pack is trying to do on offense. If the Pack can force more defenders to the LOS, that has to bode well for the offense.

[hoosier]

If all of that happens he might not even come close to matching 2012, let alone 2011, because: more attention to developing the running game means fewer passing opportunities for Rodgers; the passing game generated an unusual number of big plays in 2011, and it seems to me that for a variety of reasons they are unlikely to reproduce that this coming year or anytime in the foreseeable future; and a healthy defense (you said everyone, so I am assuming they get to avoid the injury plague too!) means there is less pressure to score every time they have the ball (maybe that's not true, but based on playcalling I am guessing McCarthy does not emphasize scoring every time no matter what the game situation is). So Rodgers racks up fewer yards, lower yds/attempt, less TDs, and so probably lower QB rating. But the Packers go 13-3, avoid laying their annual divisional round egg, and everyone is happy.

[Patler]

If all of that happens he might not even come close to matching 2012, let alone 2011, because: more attention to developing the running game means fewer passing opportunities for Rodgers; the passing game generated an unusual number of big plays in 2011, and it seems to me that for a variety of reasons they are unlikely to reproduce that this coming year or anytime in the foreseeable future; and a healthy defense (you said everyone, so I am assuming they get to avoid the injury plague too!) means there is less pressure to score every time they have the ball (maybe that's not true, but based on playcalling I am guessing McCarthy does not emphasize scoring every time no matter what the game situation is). So Rodgers racks up fewer yards, lower yds/attempt, less TDs, and so probably lower QB rating. But the Packers go 13-3, avoid laying their annual divisional round egg, and everyone is happy.

I was thinking of it differently. Fewer passing plays, yes. But against defenses that are loosened up by having to respect the run, and having to be aware of the deep threat as well, AR will have more open intermediate range options, and guys like Cobb, Nelson and Jones can add on the YAC totals. With better protection he will find those guys as they open up. Throw in a couple homeruns to the guys running deep, and he might have an even higher completion percentage, fewer interceptions and a higher yards per catch average. The TDs will simply happen.

[Cheesehead Craig]

If the running game improves, I think we see Rodgers with reduced yardage but a higher completion %. I really think he can hit 70% with a good running game.

[hoosier]

I was thinking of it differently. Fewer passing plays, yes. But against defenses that are loosened up by having to respect the run, and having to be aware of the deep threat as well, AR will have more open intermediate range options, and guys like Cobb, Nelson and Jones can add on the YAC totals. With better protection he will find those guys as they open up. Throw in a couple homeruns to the guys running deep, and he might have an even higher completion percentage, fewer interceptions and a higher yards per catch average. The TDs will simply happen.

Possibly. We have never seen a McCarthy offense with a consistently effective running game, so it's a little hard for me to imagine what that would do for the passing game. When I try to think about that, I have to fight against flashbacks of inconsistency: porous OL, plodding runners who go down on first contact, Rodgers holding the ball too long, receivers getting the dropsies, epidemic levels of penalties. We've seen all of those but, with the exception of 2011, we have never seen a full season where the offense wasn't hindered by at least one of them. I know you tried to define your question in tempered, realistic terms, but I submit that your hypothetical is just a pipe dream.

[Cleft Crusty]

Although Rodgers could recapture 2011 completion percentages, it seems unlikely that the yards and points production will go up like that again. A better defense and running game are more likely to result in more convincing wins, and opportunities for the Packers to run out the clock, as opposed to 2011, where the offense often had to continually score to keep up with the points the defense was giving up. It wasn't exactly like 1983, but at times it seemed like it.

[hoosier]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000d5d8233553c/Films-Encore-This-Day-in-Football

[Fritz]

If all those hypotheticals occurred, this offense would be crazy good and Rodgers, with less of a burden to bear, would be fearsome.

[MadtownPacker]

If M3 or Rodgers stop chucking it deep on 3 and short the offense will be fine.

[sharpe1027]

An interesting exercise. It got me thinking though, at this stage of the year wouldn't most teams feel like they would be improved absent injuries and what not?

[Patler]

An interesting exercise. It got me thinking though, at this stage of the year wouldn't most teams feel like they would be improved absent injuries and what not?

Probably, but I was think more along the lines of just moderate changes, and what that might mean with a guy like Rodgers who makes good decisions and is uncommonly accurate. I had in mind a comment from Greg Jennings two years ago, when he said that AR is so accurate and careful with his passes, that he could legitimately see him going a season without an interception.

That being the case, just a fair to middling running attack and average pass pro could result in another special performance from Rodgers.

[Upnorth]

If we had a top ten oline it could be 2011 all over again. Top Ten ol with a decent run game look out nfl

[woodbuck27]

" If those readily achievable goals are attained, what kind of season can Rodgers have? " Patler

If's ALL If's >>> All happen in the positive, ie:

a) In terms of Aaron Rodgers statistics >>> A really good season statistically; and probably better personal stat's than in 2012 !

b) In terms of his teams win-loss record >>> I'd predict a better record than in 2012; and given the Vegas Odds on the Green Bay Packers >>> a very safe prediction of the GREEN BAY PACKERS as NFCN Champion for the 3rd consecutive season ... 2011-13.

c) In terms of votes for NFL MVP >>> More votes than Aaron Rodgers received for the 2012 season.

Reasonably and 'maybe' in terms of the NFL MVP, a correct prediction of: The most votes of all NFL players and thus the MVP for two of the last three seasons. **

If he is facing defenses that can no loner completely ignore the run, with defensive backfields loosened up just a bit, and he is more confident in his blind side protection, will he exceed his performance of 2011? Patler

If his personal performance is even close to the same Aaron Rodgers we saw throughout the 2010 season playoff's; and on into his 2011 MVP season. >>> The answer to your second question (above) is:

A wait and see, Patler.

There can be no accounting for a myriad of things, that 'just might' allow another NFL player to exceed Aaron Rodgers performance. Often, the NFL MVP is a member of an NFL team that has an outstanding NFL record and performance in the playoffs.

** Any improved Aaron Rodgers performance in 2012; based on across the board improvement in the areas that you mention; is thus moot in terms of who will be the 2013 MVP.

GO Aaron Rodgers ! GO PACK GO !