Week 11 other games thread

[MadScientist]

WEEK 11

THURSDAY, NOV. 14

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 7:25

SUNDAY, NOV. 17

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo, noon
Baltimore at Chicago, noon
Cleveland at Cincinnati, noon
Oakland at Houston, noon
Arizona at Jacksonville, noon
San Diego at Miami, noon
Washington at Philadelphia, noon
Detroit at Pittsburgh, noon
Atlanta at Tampa Bay, noon
San Francisco at New Orleans, 3:25
Minnesota at Seattle, 3:25
Kansas City at Denver, 7:30

MONDAY, NOV. 18

New England at Carolina, 7:40

Open date: Dallas, St. Louis

The big game is Sunday night now that the Packers-Giants has been ditched. SF and NO is another big game.

Tonight's game features two teams coming off bad losses - Indy getting their asses handed them by the Rams, and Tennessee managing to lose to freaking Jacksonville.

[denverYooper]

Interesting:

Brian Billick @CoachBillick 55m
Denver has given up most explosive plays with 49 & has Toxic Diff of -7, ranked 24th in NFL. Compared to KC's Toxic Diff of +7, 7th in NFL.

Explosive plays = plays of 20+ yards.

Explosive plays aren't KC's game, though...

[denverYooper]

FWIW, the Eagles are ranked 2nd in "toxic differential", mostly because they lead the league in 20+ yard plays by a huge margin (61, next closest is 45) :

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000281155/article/toxic-differential-favors-seattle-seahawks-philadelphia-eagles

Toxic differential is (takeaways - giveaways) + (20+ yard plays - 20+ yard plays allowed)

[denverYooper]

"While statistics are interesting, they're all in the past." - Vince Lombardi

[pbmax]

"While statistics are interesting, they're all in the past." - Vince Lombardi

I wonder if Vince liked reading history.

[KYPack]

I wonder if Vince liked reading history.

Vince was heavily into what can you do for me now, kinda guy.

[woodbuck27]

Interesting:

Brian Billick @CoachBillick 55m
Denver has given up most explosive plays with 49 & has Toxic Diff of -7, ranked 24th in NFL. Compared to KC's Toxic Diff of +7, 7th in NFL.

Explosive plays = plays of 20+ yards.

Explosive plays aren't KC's game, though...

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=OPP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&season=2013&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go

With Peyton Manning's ankle and mobility a question mark and that RE: scoring against ... KC's top ranked 'D'. This is an intriguing game to call.

The above shows that the Denver Pass 'D' has given up 47 passing plays of 20+ yards compared to KC's 35.

Denver faces the NFL's best pass rush in KC with 36 SACKS Vs Denver's 26 SACKS.

Denver has 13 Picks Vs KC @ 12 Picks.

[woodbuck27]

"While statistics are interesting, they're all in the past." - Vince Lombardi

Thus Vegas setting it's line on the GIANTS as GIANTS -5 Pts.

[woodbuck27]

FWIW, the Eagles are ranked 2nd in "toxic differential", mostly because they lead the league in 20+ yard plays by a huge margin (61, next closest is 45) :

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000281155/article/toxic-differential-favors-seattle-seahawks-philadelphia-eagles

Toxic differential is (takeaways - giveaways) + (20+ yard plays - 20+ yard plays allowed)

That's information I missed last night on NFL.Com.

Thanks.

[denverYooper]

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...alse&Submit=Go

With Peyton Manning's ankle and mobility a question mark and that RE: scoring against ... KC's top ranked 'D'. This is an intriguing game to call.

The above shows that the Denver Pass 'D' has given up 47 passing plays of 20+ yards compared to KC's 35.

Denver faces the NFL's best pass rush in KC with 36 SACKS Vs Denver's 26 SACKS.

Denver has 13 Picks Vs KC @ 12 Picks.

Manning's ankle is a big topic of discussion around here.

[woodbuck27]

Manning's ankle is a big topic of discussion around here.

Yes. His not being fully active up until today was suspicious. He hates to miss practise and is always gung ho. He was out there working the first team at practise today, and by reports seemed A-OK and will play Vs KC Sunday night.

Taking that away the BRONCO's will have to maintain it's excellent performance at home to toss the Chiefs their first loss of the season. The Chiefs want respect.

A tough week for analysis over by far most of the matchups.

[woodbuck27]

That TNG 30-27 Indy; was good to watch with another Indy comeback after Tennessee opened fast. Overall the game was entertaining and in a matter of speaking down to the wire. The Titans got a late TD after what might have been some too early celebration on the part of the Indy defense and got caught off guard. I thought that the onside kick following that TD was lame in terms of effort. A punch kick not even over the required 10 yards.

Andrew Luck is a solid leader. A terrific competitor and skilled/athletic.

I tried to make a play in the Pro Pickem laying one (1) CP on the Titans and it almost worked.

Struggling with that this year.

[denverYooper]

I'm really looking forward to the Chiefs-Broncos game on Sunday night. People around here are pretty sure the Broncos will win because they don't think the Smith-led Chefs can keep up. Maybe, but I see this as the strength on strength matchup that you don't often get in the regular season - Chiefs D vs. Broncos O. Maybe it's because I remember the high-powered GB offense running into a slugfest vs KC in their hot-rod year, I don't know, but I think this is going to be more difficult than Broncos fans realize.

Smart take by Barnwell here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...chiefs-broncos

The biggest reason some people don't take the 9-0 Chiefs seriously is pretty obvious: They've played a schedule of chumps. I can't say I disagree, especially after their three-game run against backup quarterbacks before the bye, but the gap in schedule strength between the Chiefs and Broncos is vastly overstated. Football Outsiders notes that the Chiefs have played the easiest schedule in football, with their average opponent at a DVOA of -17.7 percent, which is roughly like playing the Giants every week.

Do you know who is in second place by that measure? The Broncos! Per Football Outsiders, Denver's average opponent has posted a DVOA of -15.2 percent, which is just behind Kansas City. Football Outsiders has the Broncos as the better team — they top the league in DVOA while the Chiefs are currently eighth — but it's not necessarily because of K.C.'s schedule. Its numbers peg Denver's strength, offense, to be superior to Kansas City's strength, defense.

I like the Broncos better than any other team in the AFC, but not so much that I don't like to see them lose a few to keep local fan ego in check . And if they lose, I certainly don't spend much time thinking about why, as I am wont to do with Packers losses. That said, I'm just looking for a good Sunday night game for once. I'm taking Monday off for my daughter's birthday, so I can probably even have a few pops on Sunday night. I'm really hoping for a down-to-the-wire battle.

[woodbuck27]

I'm really looking forward to the Chiefs-Broncos game on Sunday night. People around here are pretty sure the Broncos will win because they don't think the Smith-led Chefs can keep up. Maybe, but I see this as the strength on strength matchup that you don't often get in the regular season - Chiefs D vs. Broncos O. Maybe it's because I remember the high-powered GB offense running into a slugfest vs KC in their hot-rod year, I don't know, but I think this is going to be more difficult than Broncos fans realize.

Smart take by Barnwell here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...chiefs-broncos



I like the Broncos better than any other team in the AFC, but not so much that I don't like to see them lose a few to keep local fan ego in check . And if they lose, I certainly don't spend much time thinking about why, as I am wont to do with Packers losses. That said, I'm just looking for a good Sunday night game for once. I'm taking Monday off for my daughter's birthday, so I can probably even have a few pops on Sunday night. I'm really hoping for a down-to-the-wire battle.

So many solid match-ups remaining this week, led by:

1) KC @ Denver - SNF - Sunday 8:30 PM ET

2) NE @ Carolina - MNF - Monday 8:40 PM ET

3) San Fran @ NO - Sunday 4:25 PM ET

4) Green Bay @ NY GIANTS - Sunday 4:25 PM ET

5) Baltimore @ Chicago - Sunday 1 PM ET

6) Detroit @ Pittsburgh - Sunday 1 PM ET

GO PACKERS ... Win this game.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Methinks Eric Walden will be getting an invoice for the league on this.