The Cold Hard Facts - An Analysis Of Green Bay Packers 'O' and 'D' 2008 - Present.

[woodbuck27]

The Cold Hard Facts .. A Statistical Analysis of the Green Bay Packers

** A. Offense Yards/Game ( Y/G) FOR:

Jan. 30, 2009 - 379 Y/G <<< = Falling Jan. 30, 2010 - 358 Y/G

Jan. 30, 2010 - 358 Y/G >>> = Rising Jan. 30, 2011 - 405 Y/G <<< Falling <<<

Jan. 30 2012 - 359 Y/G >>> Rising >>> 399 Y/G - Dec. 2013


** B. Defensive Yards/Game ALLOWED :

Jan. 30, 2009 - 284 Y/G >>> Jan. 30, 2010 - 309 Y/G >>> Rising >>>

Jan. 30 2011 - 412 Y/G <<< Falling <<< Jan. 30, 2012 - 337 Y/G >>> Rising >>>

Dec. 2013 - 376 Y/G

Note: Diff. A - B = ONLY 23 Y/G

Note the trend since Jan. 30 2009 where the Packer 'D' has overall/generally allowed considerably more yards to now. (Please See Below )

Jan. 30, 2009 284 Yds >>> 309 Yds >>> 412 Yds - Jan. 30, 2011 <<< 337 Yds >>> 376 Yds - Dec. 2013.


** C. POINTS Per Game (P/G)

Jan. 30 2009: P/G FOR = 29 ...... P/G ALLOWED = 19

Jan. 30 2010: P/G FOR = 24 ...... P/G ALLOWED = 15

Jan 30, 2011: P/G FOR = 35 ...... P/G ALLOWED = 22

Jan. 30 ,2012: P/G FOR = 27 ...... P/G ALLOWED = 21

DEC. 2013: P/G FOR = 24.5 ...... P/G ALLOWED = 25.4 ***

*** The Green Bay Packers are now losing over the past five games; best result a tie Vs the Vikings.


D. Yards of Offense per Play ( Y/P ) :

Jan. 30 2008 Y/P = 5.55
Jan. 30 2009 Y/P = 5.82
Jan. 30 2010 Y/P = 5.73
Jan. 30 2011 Y/P = 6.56
Jan. 30 2012 = Y/P = 5.52

Dec. 2013 = Y/P = 6.1 on 66 Plays/Game


E. 3rd Down Conversion %

2008 = 44 %; 2009 = 47%; 2010 = 41.5 %; 2011 = 48.1 %, 2012 = 42. 3%

Finally Dec 2013 = 38.5 % ****


**** Note: A decrease of 10% from the peak value of 48.1 % 3rd Down

Conversions .... measured on Jan. 30, 2011 or compared to Packer history what the

Packers did back in 1999-2003. How were the Packers doing back then?


Comment woodbuck27:

You can rely on this fact. The data provided in this report is from a reliable source.

From this report you may draw your own conclusions. Comments 'of course ' are welcome.


GO PACK GO !

[denverYooper]

What's the story here?

Aaron Rodgers is really important?

[woodbuck27]

What's the story here?

Aaron Rodgers is really important?

Hi:

Yes that observation is obvious to us in terms of our offense and in the Win/Loss column.

I also noted that beginning sometime in the 2011 season the Green Bay Packer 'D' has been really struggling. See defensive yards allowed but alarming to me. Just how much more the Packer 'D' is being scored upon. The increase here is substantial looking back to 2009-10. That impacts the offense, places undue pressure on the Packers offense to cover that up.

We could consider the scoring trend in the NFL overall and which I didn't.

Jan. 30 2010: P/G FOR = 24 ... P/G ALLOWED = 15

Jan 30, 2011: P/G FOR = 35 ... P/G ALLOWED = 22

DEC. 2013: P/G FOR = 24.5 ...... P/G ALLOWED = 25.4 ***

PACKERS !

[denverYooper]

Hi:

Yes that observation is obvious to us in terms of our offense and in the Win/Loss column.

I also noted that beginning sometime in the 2011 season the Green Bay Packer 'D' has been really struggling. See defensive yards allowed but alarming to me. Just how much more the Packer 'D' is being scored upon. The increase here is substantial looking back to 2009-10. That impacts the offense, places undue pressure on the Packers offense to cover that up.

We could consider the scoring trend in the NFL overall and which I didn't.

Jan. 30 2010: P/G FOR = 24 ... P/G ALLOWED = 15

Jan 30, 2011: P/G FOR = 35 ... P/G ALLOWED = 22

DEC. 2013: P/G FOR = 24.5 ...... P/G ALLOWED = 25.4 ***

PACKERS !

What was their PPG before/after Rodgers went down?

You might have provided their defensive 3rd down %s or YPP YOY as a better indicator than points. PPG (and TOP) are probably heavily impacted by Rodgers going down.

[denverYooper]

How about this--passer rating against is almost 20 points worse this year than any other year under M3.

2006: 75.4
2007: 75.6
2008: 71.9
2009: 68.8
2010: 67.2
2011; 80.6
2012: 76.8
2013: 99.1

It has been hovering around 100 all year, even before Rodgers went down.

[woodbuck27]

What was their PPG before/after Rodgers went down?

You might have provided their defensive 3rd down %s or YPP YOY as a better indicator than points. PPG (and TOP) are probably heavily impacted by Rodgers going down.

POINTS SCORED Avg./Game on both sides of the ball with Aaron Rodgers:

FOR: 28.43 .... Against: 24.43

POINTS SCORED Avg./Game on both sides of the ball with backup QB's:

FOR: 16.4 ...... Against: 29.4

*************************************

DEFENSE: Yards per play against:

Jan. 30, 2009 = 4.8 YPPA

Jan. 30, 2010 = 5.1 YPPA

Jan. 30, 2011 = 6.28 YPPA

Jan. 30, 2012 = 5.21 YPPA

Now or Dec. 2013 = 5.8 YPPA

PACKERS !

[woodbuck27]

How about this--passer rating against is almost 20 points worse this year than any other year under M3.

2006: 75.4
2007: 75.6
2008: 71.9
2009: 68.8
2010: 67.2
2011; 80.6
2012: 76.8
2013: 99.1

It has been hovering around 100 all year, even before Rodgers went down.

Yes I saw that too.

Next ?.... Are you in our Pro Pickem?

[Fritz]

Maybe a new defensive coordinator who has a history of turning defenses around quickly would be the answer. After all, Capers had that history, and is true to it. He turned the "D" around; they played well for the first couple years, then they went to hell.

And McCarthy's expiration date is approaching soon, too. Isn't it about eight years or so that historically a coach can be effective?

[Bossman641]

Going off memory here but I believe I read an article a year or so ago where (QB rating for - QB rating allowed) was one of the biggest indicators of successful teams. We had been tops, or close to, in the past few years. We've slid down to 9th in QBR for at 92.1 and 27th in against at 99.1 for a minus 7.0. In the past I think we were +30-40.

[run pMc]

How about this--passer rating against is almost 20 points worse this year than any other year under M3.

2006: 75.4
2007: 75.6
2008: 71.9
2009: 68.8
2010: 67.2
2011; 80.6
2012: 76.8
2013: 99.1

It has been hovering around 100 all year, even before Rodgers went down.

I remember 2010 defense being considered good for this very reason, along with the scoring defense stat. IMO a championship-level defense averages <= 21 p/g.

I think QB rating is actually a pretty important defensive stat, with it being more of a passing game. This year's number really jumps out compared to others, and is especially bad when you consider among the 12 games so far they've faced Weeden and Ponder twice.

[denverYooper]

Weeden was the sole good game they've shown, but IIRC, he was horrible that day. They held McCown under his average. Other than that, they helped Ponder (and most QBs) boost their stats.

QB -       Season - vs. GB
Kaepernick     88.9   129.5 
RG III         83.3   104.2
Dalton        85.5   105.5  
Stafford      89.6   89.8
Flacco        78.5   112.6 
Weeden        70.3   48.6
Ponder         77.9   86.4
McCown        103.6   90.7
Foles         125.2  149.3
Manning      74.3    92.3
Ponder       77.9    103.9
Stafford      89.6    98.6

The one that really drives me nuts for some reason is Foles -- they *should* have picked him off 2-3 times that game. But whatever bad luck the Packers pass defense has had grabbing INTs seems to have found it's equal in Foles's ability to have opposing defenses drop would-be INTs (or get them wiped out by penalty).

[ThunderDan]

The one that really drives me nuts for some reason is Foles -- they *should* have picked him off 2-3 times that game. But whatever bad luck the Packers pass defense has had grabbing INTs seems to have found it's equal in Foles's ability to have opposing defenses drop would-be INTs (or get them wiped out by penalty).

I was at the game and both of Foles touchdown passes should have been INTs, The first Tramon and Burnett collided and on the second the two Packer defends lost the ball in the sun and the PHI WR ran clear to catch the ball.

Both throws were DUCKS!!!

[woodbuck27]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/real-quarterback-rating-differential-new-mother-all-stats/22908/

Real Quarterback Rating Differential: A New Mother Of All Stats?

Cold, Hard Football Facts for May 29, 2013

NFL 2013 SEASON Through Week 13:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2013/14/QBR/

A) Real Quarterback Rating - (LINK above)

B) Defensive Real Quarterback Rating - (LINK below)

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2013/14/DQBR/

and........

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2013/14/RQRD/

C) Real Quarterback Rating Differential (LINK above)

A - B = C = - 2.47 RQBD... AND A Dramatic Decline From The 2011 Season.


LET's LOOK BACK >>> FOR A COMPARISON and THE PAST


2012 SEASON:

A) Real Quarterback Rating Final Stat's 2012 Season:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2012/Final/QBR/

B) Defensive Real Quarterback Rating (2012):

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2012/Final/DQBR/

C) Real Quarterback Rating Differential

A - B = C (2012): 24.34 RQBD ... A Decline From The 2011 Season

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2012/Final/RQRD/

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


2011 Season

A) Real Quarterback Rating:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2011/Final/QBR/

B) Defensive Real Quarterback Rating:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2011/Final/DQBR/

C) Real Quarterback Rating Differential A - B = C (2011)

112.71 (minus) 77.85 = 34.86 RQBD The Green Bay Packers Were The Top Ranked NFL Team.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/

Quality Stats Power Rankings

Through Week 13 of the 2013 Regular Season

Since Last Report the Green Bay Packers drop 7 slots to the NO. 18 Ranking

[woodbuck27]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2013/14/TOP/

Time of Possession

Through Week 13 of the 2013 Regular Season

Green Bay Packer TOP = 30.18 and down 3 slots to the NO. 14 Ranking.