Shield's testing the market

[mraynrand]

^^^ it was still a nickel Red, not dime. Four LBs in there.

[wist43]

What you continually fail to recognize is the effect of personnel. Bears are running three wide with Bennett at TE. That's four legit receiving threats, not to mention Forte out of the backfield. Chicago passes far more often than they run on that down and distance. Earlier in the year, Neal was in the 2-4 with Jones, but late in the year, with injuries - esp to Jolly, the rotation changed. So now you have Neal, Pick and Raji. That's 3 down linemen, depending on how you look at Neal. on the other side, Mulumba is filling in for Perry and Matthews who are both out at that point, and Lattimore is in for Brad Jones. Blame the 2-4 all you want, but you put in an extra fatty lineman (the rookie? Who? D. Jones or Daniels), and your ability to cover the TE or RB is compromised. Funny that Neal recognized the run, but didn't get there. On the other side, would have preferred Perry over Mulumba who got killed, but Perry was hurt. Would have preferred Matthews to Perry or Lattimore, but Matthews was hurt. I guess Capers biggest failure is his inability to just conjure up new pro bowl personnel using spells and incantations.

Dude - TT paid Brad Jones a bushel full of money to cover TE's, did he not?? And if you are in a 3-4, you still have 4 DB's and Jones on the field, do you not??

So right there, you have 5 players committed to covering 3 receivers, and 1 TE - more if your defensive call is zone and you drop x-number of LB's. On those 2 plays, you're only defending 5 yds and 1 yd!!!

By being the 2-4 in those down/distance/goal to go situations - why would any Offensive Coordinator call a pass, when he can just run it up the middle and walk into the end zone?? Which is exactly what happened!!!

How is it that you miss any of that?? lol...

[3irty1]

Excellent find, I will assume the numbers are correct...

But just as with players at DE/OLB and TE/WR (Jimmy Graham) trying to redesignate what they are for franchise tag purposes, how do these statistics define fronts?? As with Dallas's Demarcus Ware. He is listed as a DE, and I assume when they are defined as being in a 3-4, his hand is on the ground vs. when they are defining them to be in a 2-4, or a 2-3, he is standing up??

As for the Packers, that chart backs up my argument that we play more 2-4 than anyone in the league - by a wide margin. Arizona, SF, and Washington are the only ones that are even within 20% points, and each of them runs more 3-4 than they do 2-4.

Green Bay on the other hand is listed at 62% 2-4, and only 27% 3-4.

As I said, no one else is even close... this backs up my argument.

Excellent use of the internet my friend, lol...

This is 2011 data so Ware would have been listed at OLB. No one disputes that we run by far the most, what I'm saying is that we've got different versions of it for different down and distances. Our 3rd down 2-4 doesn't look like our 1st down 2-4 even though both count towards our 62%. I'm guessing that the about 10% of the time we're running that "run stopping" 2-4 that I want gone. Do away with it and the difference between us and a normal team is mostly accounted for, the rest can be accounted for by how little dime we were running. In 2011 that made sense to keep Jarrett Bush off the field but these days with Hyde and Hayward it would seem like we can put a pretty good 2-3 on the field.

I'd say appropriate % for the Packers is something like 35% 3-4, 45% 2-4, 10% dime, 10% other

[3irty1]

Dude - TT paid Brad Jones a bushel full of money to cover TE's, did he not?? And if you are in a 3-4, you still have 4 DB's and Jones on the field, do you not??

So right there, you have 5 players committed to covering 3 receivers, and 1 TE - more if your defensive call is zone and you drop x-number of LB's. On those 2 plays, you're only defending 5 yds and 1 yd!!!

By being the 2-4 in those down/distance/goal to go situations - why would any Offensive Coordinator call a pass, when he can just run it up the middle and walk into the end zone?? Which is exactly what happened!!!

How is it that you miss any of that?? lol...

This is like the 3rd time I've heard you talk about the big contract that Brad Jones or AJ Hawk are rocking. How much do they make exactly?

[red]

^^^ it was still a nickel Red, not dime. Four LBs in there.

no i ment it in a different way

when we run a 2-4, it looks to me like we're actually running the 4-3, but we're substituting a LB or a cb. taking it from a 4-3-4, to a 4-2-5

[wist43]

This is 2011 data so Ware would have been listed at OLB. No one disputes that we run by far the most, what I'm saying is that we've got different versions of it for different down and distances. Our 3rd down 2-4 doesn't look like our 1st down 2-4 even though both count towards our 62%. I'm guessing that the about 10% of the time we're running that "run stopping" 2-4 that I want gone. Do away with it and the difference between us and a normal team is mostly accounted for, the rest can be accounted for by how little dime we were running. In 2011 that made sense to keep Jarrett Bush off the field but these days with Hyde and Hayward it would seem like we can put a pretty good 2-3 on the field.

Running that "Jumbo 2-4" Capers is hoping to get one halfway decent stop on 1st or 2nd down. He's comfortable with giving up a 7 yd run on 1st down, if on 2nd down he can stop them for no gain, and end up at 3rd and 3.

Of course an offense would take short 3rd down conversions like that every time, as you hear announcers going on endlessly about "managable" 3rd down situations.

Trouble for Capers is that he's as likely to give up a 5 yd run on that 3rd down, as he is likely to stop a short pass.

As for the statistics you posted, you said they were for 2011... might I remind everyone, Green Bay set an NFL record for pass defense futility in 2011, and finished next to last in overall defense. That just doesn't work for me.

[red]

This is like the 3rd time I've heard you talk about the big contract that Brad Jones or AJ Hawk are rocking. How much do they make exactly?

brad jones cap numbers

2013- 2.5 million
2014-3.925 million
2015- 4.675

not huge amounts, but a lot more then what jones is worth IMO. i would say that 2.5 million a year every year would be fair

hawk

2013- 5.2
2014- 5.1
2015- 5.1

higher, but it depends on your take on hawk. he seems to be a love him or hate him guy

[wist43]

This is like the 3rd time I've heard you talk about the big contract that Brad Jones or AJ Hawk are rocking. How much do they make exactly?

Wasn't Jones's 4 years, $22 million??

I'll have to look it up... I remember I was pissed when they signed him to it. He and Hawk are the dictionary definition of "pedestrian".

No matter what TT paid for Jones, he was overpaid. He is close to minimum wage player.

[wist43]

Looked it up... Jones signed a 3 year, $11.75 million contract.

Maybe it was Hawks that was 4 years, $22 million...

Regardless, they are both overpaid. The bottom line is - they don't make plays!!

[3irty1]

Running that "Jumbo 2-4" Capers is hoping to get one halfway decent stop on 1st or 2nd down. He's comfortable with giving up a 7 yd run on 1st down, if on 2nd down he can stop them for no gain, and end up at 3rd and 3.

Of course an offense would take short 3rd down conversions like that every time, as you hear announcers going on endlessly about "managable" 3rd down situations.

Trouble for Capers is that he's as likely to give up a 5 yd run on that 3rd down, as he is likely to stop a short pass.

As for the statistics you posted, you said they were for 2011... might I remind everyone, Green Bay set an NFL record for pass defense futility in 2011, and finished next to last in overall defense. That just doesn't work for me.

I don't have numbers for other years but it doesn't seem like they've moved away from the recipe. Exactly what they were doing worked well in 2010 and even worked pretty well in 2012 thanks to the miracle of Hayward's rookie year. Point I'm making is that there is nothing wrong with the 2-4 in general, it can be done because we've done it and even with all the changes I'd like to see it'd still be our most popular formation probably. My beef is that we haven't updated the defense from 2010 to work with 2013 personnel which is like the opposite of what good coaches do: Move the scheme to fit the personnel.

[pbmax]

^^^ that's fine for the nickel, but what about the dime - then you need to go 2-3-6. I am taking 31's word for it that the packers got burned a lot running the 2-4 in 2011 on passing downs. That seems unsound.

Well, that middle of the field problem persists to this day in Pittsburgh, so there are always area of vulnerabilities in any D. More concerning to me about the pass D were the dearth of pass rush and INTs, though that may not have been apparent during the '11 season.

The listing in 3irty1's chart is a bit misleading because in every one of those pass defenses, 2 LBs are pass rushing. But even then I don't remember much 6 DBs with 2 LBs from the Packers.

[3irty1]

Looked it up... Jones signed a 3 year, $11.75 million contract.

Maybe it was Hawks that was 4 years, $22 million...

Regardless, they are both overpaid. The bottom line is - they don't make plays!!

Jones is certainly overpaid for his production, I do think Hawk has earned his keep on durability alone. These guys are both just paid like average starters though.

[3irty1]

Well, that middle of the field problem persists to this day in Pittsburgh, so there are always area of vulnerabilities in any D. More concerning to me about the pass D were the dearth of pass rush and INTs, though that may not have been apparent during the '11 season.

The listing in 3irty1's chart is a bit misleading because in every one of those pass defenses, 2 LBs are pass rushing. But even then I don't remember much 6 DBs with 2 LBs from the Packers.

This is best known to fans as the "3 man rush" or "prevent" defense we saw so much through 2010 and 2011.

[pbmax]

This is best known to fans as the "3 man rush" or "prevent" defense we saw so much through 2010 and 2011.

Yes it was but I remember more 7 DBs and 1 ILB than I remember 6 DBs and 2 ILBs. Could be mistaken here but at one point there was only 1 dime linebacker.

[pbmax]

In the red zone, I am troubled by the 2-4 inside the 5 despite the matchup. But while Jones and Hawk may be counted on trailing the TE down a seam and forcing the QB to squeeze in a throw over the LB and in front of the safety, its a much different scenario in the red zone with a TE out side or in motion. Then an ILB needs help and that can cost you coverage elsewhere. I am not sanguine about my odds in a 3-4-4 versus a red zone pass.

However, the threat of a run, even if its against tendency is severe.

I think you have to play the best defense for your personnel. That may not have been Mulumba and probably points out an adjustment that needed to be made. Tough call, I don't know what Chicago's numbers were in the red zone. Jeffrey and Marshall that close are terrifying and Bennett doesn't help matters.