Packer 2014 compensatory picks

[pbmax]

There was a guy who ran a site that predicted the comp picks. This guy was uncanny. He was usually right on the money. I always felt that he picked the comps a round low from what the JSO and blogs did and it worked. He stopped doing it 3-4 years ago.

I think Red's guess will be about right.

This guy: http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03...nfl-draft.html

[red]

when we look at the link PB gave, we see just how stupid the whole process is

http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/03/18/grading-our-compensatory-pick-projections-2/

we got a 5th round pick for matt flynn, who signed with seattle for 20.5 million over 3 years with 9 million guaranteed. just under 7 million a year

the falcons got a 4th rounder for curtis lofton, who signed elsewhere for 27.5 million over 5 years. 5.5 million per year

or the 49ers getting a 4th for josh morgan, who signed a 5 year 38 million dollar deal, but contract was full of all kinds of funny money, and the team could void the contract after 2 years. it was in fact a 2 year 11.5 million dollar deal. or 5.75 million per year

the ravens got a 4th for losing ben grubbs who signed a 5 year 36 million dollar deal. just over 7 million. just slightly more then flynn got

the dolphins actually got the comp pick in the 5th right before us for Kendall Langford. he signed a 5 year deal worth 22 million. less then 4.5 million er year


so it really makes no fucking sense where they get these comp picks from. and looking at the basic facts, its hard not to feel that the packers got screwed hard here

[pbmax]

The new dude, Craig Turner (his Twitter feed is up near the top in a post of mine), is taking this pretty seriously though. Here is his explanation of why Flynn garnered only a 5th rounder when predicted to be a fourth. Jimmy Kempski is the guy now writing for Philly.com and ct17 is Turner, the comp pick specialist.

lutz
March 19, 2013 at 8:18 am
Why did the Packers only get a 5th for Flynn?

....Jimmy Kempski
....March 19, 2013 at 8:33 am
....My guess would be that Saturday cancelled out Wells, and they only awarded a 5 for Flynn because he barely played, but CT may see it differently.

........lutz
........March 19, 2013 at 8:40 am
........Thanks. I know Saturday cancelled Wells but playing time is usually not that big a factor

............ct17
............March 19, 2013 at 9:46 am
............Playing time was a big factor this year for some players, but not for all. It explains Wheeler’s inclusion, but not how Jason Jones
............and his half million more got a pick below Jason Allen and his 3 snaps. I will be looking into whether contract length now matters.
............Flynn’s contract numbers are constantly changing. I think there is a lot of garbage in it, and the league went with a low potential number.

[Joemailman]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/r...ojections.html

Over the last 2 years, my friend Craig Turner has done compensatory pick projections very accurately for my former football blog. Last year, he correctly matched 24 teams with the correct round for which they received a pick. He projected an additional 5 teams to receive a pick, but missed by just one round. The 3 remaining picks he missed on were due to some gray area, which he learns from every year.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/r...DgPeB3FX7wt.99

3 – Pittsburgh – Mike Wallace

3 – Green Bay – Greg Jennings

4 – San Francisco – Dashon Goldson

4 – Baltimore – Paul Kruger

4 – Detroit – Gosder Cherilus

4 – Baltimore – Dannell Ellerbe

5 – Houston – Connor Barwin

5 – New York Jets – LaRon Landry

5 – Baltimore – Cary Williams

5 – Atlanta – Brent Grimes

5 – Pittsburgh – Keenan Lewis

5 – New York Giants – Martellus Bennett

5 – Baltimore – Ed Reed

5 – Houston – Glover Quin

6 – New York Jets – Mike DeVito

6 – Green Bay – Erik Walden

6 – New York Jets – Dustin Keller

6 – New England – Patrick Chung

6 – Cincinnati – Manny Lawson

6 – St. Louis – Brandon Gibson

6 – New York Jets – Shonn Greene

7 – St. Louis – Bradley Fletcher

7 – Dallas – Mike Jenkins

7 – Cincinnati – Pat Sims

7 – St. Louis – Craig Dahl

7 – St. Louis – Rob Turner

7 – Dallas – Victor Butler

7 – Cincinnati – Bruce Gradkowski

7 – Atlanta – Will Svitek

7 – Atlanta – Christopher Owens

7 – San Diego – Shaun Phillips

7 - Dallas - Kenyon Coleman

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/r...DgPeB3FX7wt.99

[Fritz]

A third for Jennings would be a gift. A fourth would be okay. A fifth would be a ripoff, even if it's a fifth of Jack.

[smuggler]

I really hope it's a third but it probably will end up as a fourth.

[denverYooper]

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 43s
The #Packers' two compensatory picks are Nos. 98 (third) and 176th (fifth).

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 7m
#Packers receive two compensatory draft picks: 3rd and a 5th. Third is for Greg Jennings and 5th is for Erik Walden.

[denverYooper]

Which means I should probably get an eighth and a fifth.

[pbmax]

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 43s
The #Packers' two compensatory picks are Nos. 98 (third) and 176th (fifth).

Playing time must have been a big deal this year.

Also, someone bookmark Craig Turner's site. He's golden.

[Brandon494]

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 43s
The #Packers' two compensatory picks are Nos. 98 (third) and 176th (fifth).

Nice, better then we thought getting a 5th instead of a 6th for Walden.

[Brandon494]

Which means I should probably get an eighth and a fifth.

Shit I wish I lived in Colorado you lucky bastard!

[red]

hell yeah, thats awesome

we might just be able to draft a jennings-like WR with that new 3rd round pick

with all the mid round talent in this draft, this is like getting an extra 2nd and a 4th in years past

[BZnDallas]

hell yeah, thats awesome

we might just be able to draft a jennings-like WR with that new 3rd round pick

with all the mid round talent in this draft, this is like getting an extra 2nd and a 4th in years past

3 and a 5, thats great news!... can't wait to see what TT does now!

[pbmax]

Here is the comparison between projected and actual:

[B]ROUND	PICK	TEAM		PROJECTED					RESULT[/B]
3	33-97	Steelers	3 – Pittsburgh – Mike Wallace			Correct
3	34-98	Packers		3 – Green Bay – Greg Jennings			Correct
3	35-99	Ravens		4 – Baltimore – Paul Kruger			3 not 4
3	36-100	49ers		4 – San Francisco – Dashon Goldson		3 not 4
4	33-133	Lions		4 – Detroit – Gosder Cherilus			correct
4	34-134	Ravens		4 – Baltimore – Dannell Ellerbe			correct
4	35-135	Texans		5 – Houston – Connor Barwin			4 not 5
4	36-136	Lions								wrong
4	37-137	Jets		5 – New York Jets – LaRon Landry		4 not 5
4	38-138	Ravens		5 – Baltimore – Cary Williams			4 not 5
4	39-139	Falcons		5 – Atlanta – Brent Grimes			4 not 5
4	40-140	Patriots	6 – New England – Patrick Chung			4 not 6
5	33-173	Steelers	5 – Pittsburgh – Keenan Lewis 			correct
5	34-174	Giants		5 – New York Giants – Martellus Bennett		correct
5	35-175	Ravens		5 – Baltimore – Ed Reed				correct
5	36-176	Packers		6 – Green Bay – Erik Walden			5 not 6
6	33-209	Jets		6 – New York Jets – Mike DeVito			correct
6	34-210	Jets		6 – New York Jets – Dustin Keller		correct
6	35-211	Texans		5 – Houston –  Glover Quin    			6 not 5
6	36-212	Bengals		6 – Cincinnati – Manny Lawson			correct
6	37-213	Jets		6 – New York Jets – Shonn Greene		correct
6	38-214	Rams		6 – St. Louis – Brandon Gibson			correct
6	39-215	Steelers							wrong
7	33-248	Cowboys		7 – Dallas – Mike Jenkins			correct
7	34-249	Rams		7 – St. Louis – Bradley Fletcher		correct
7	35-250	Rams		7 – St. Louis – Craig Dahl			correct
7	36-251	Cowboys		7 – Dallas – Victor Butler			correct
7	37-252	Bengals		7 – Cincinnati – Pat Sims			correct
7	38-253	Falcons		7 – Atlanta – Will Svitek			correct
7	39-254	Cowboys		7 - Dallas - Kenyon Coleman			correct
7	40-255	Falcons		7 – Atlanta – Christopher Owens			correct
7	41-256	Texans								wrong

MISSED ENTIRELY

,	,	,		7 – St. Louis – Rob Turner			,
,	,	,		7 – Cincinnati – Bruce Gradkowski			,
,	,	,		7 – San Diego – Shaun Phillips			,

[pbmax]

32 picks, 3 whiffs.
20 dead on, 8 missed by one round, 1 missed by 2.

Apparently, there is now a finite number of picks no matter how many losses might otherwise qualify. So you not only need to tally the qualified net losses, but then you need to select the top 32 and little is known about how.

My comparison of which loss was credited to which pick is a guess based on his rankings (I put the highest available player into a team slot). This could be incorrect.

League's official explanation is here: http://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/...tory-picks.pdf

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula....

According to that doc, Chicago, Atlanta and Cincinnati qualified for another pick but represented qualified losses #33, 34 and 35.