Who Should TT Pick In the First Round? 3.0 Final Version

[wist43]

What you say is true to an extent. So many of these profiles are exaggerated or BS. Most of them are contradictory hearsay. Here's one from NFL.com that square with what I know:

I've watched several Florida State games this year and I'm just going on what I saw. It seems to me you can teach anything but size and the trend seems to be bigger receivers and bigger D-backs.

Of course, I don't know anything about the guy's character or work habits. I tend to think success came pretty easy to him in college.

The one thing a WR has to be able to do in MM's offense is run precise routes - for Benjamin, all of those other positives may be true, but if he can't get into and out of his breaks, he'd be useless in Green Bay.

Running great routes, and being lightning quick into and out his breaks is what made Greg Jennings so effective in this offense.

Benjamin just isn't a good fit, based on what I saw. This write up from Rob Rang at CBS is exactly what I saw when I watched him...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1860744/kelvin-benjamin

WEAKNESSES: Still developing as a route-runner, adding to questions about his ability to play a large role immediately in the NFL. While his size is problematic for defenders, Benjamin's length makes it difficult for him to sink his hips and explodes out of cuts, making him much better suited to verticals and crossing routes than double-moves, limiting his fit to certain schemes.

Green Bay's offense would be a scheme that he is simply not a good fit for.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Green Bay's offense would be a scheme that he is simply not a good fit for.

They don't call MM "Stubby" for nothing.

[Fritz]

Monica Lewinsky says she likes Clinton-Dix.

[smuggler]

There are a lot of pretty good players spread out over the first three rounds. I dare say this might be the right year to trade next year's first.

[Joemailman]

Another guy I like, if we miss on Shazier in the 1st round, or go another direction - is Kyle Van Noy out of BYU.

There is a lot of talent - a lot of 2nd and 3rd round players in this draft that will be as good as the 1st rounders... it is why I wouldn't mind trading down.

In 9 years, TT has drafted 14 guys in the 4th round, but only 7 in the 3rd. 4 times he has traded out of the 3rd round and not had a 3rd round pick. That would seem to indicate he feels there is usually better value in the 4th than 3rd. I wonder if this year could be different though. With the strength of this draft, there might be value in the 3rd.

[Carolina_Packer]

Monica Lewinsky says she likes Clinton-Dix.

More than one? Wow.

[run pMc]

In 9 years, TT has drafted 14 guys in the 4th round, but only 7 in the 3rd. 4 times he has traded out of the 3rd round and not had a 3rd round pick. That would seem to indicate he feels there is usually better value in the 4th than 3rd. I wonder if this year could be different though. With the strength of this draft, there might be value in the 3rd.

TT's track record in R3 also suggests he moves up to get players (the 2012 draft) as well as down. With the depth of this draft I agree with wist that trading down for extra picks would help improve competition/depth at a few spots. I wonder if there's somebody who falls and a team covets them enough to trade up with GB.

I'm definitely NOT in the camp of trading next year's R1 for another R1 this year. You double your risk: the player you pick this year might not pan out AND you don't know where your draft spot will be next year. That's Jerrah Jones riverboat gambling, and that can get you in trouble.

[smuggler]

I'm definitely NOT in the camp of trading next year's R1 for another R1 this year. You double your risk: the player you pick this year might not pan out AND you don't know where your draft spot will be next year. That's Jerrah Jones riverboat gambling, and that can get you in trouble.

Usually I agree with you, but there are two issues here:

Next year's draft will not be as good as this one, at least not in foresight. The reason has been well publicized.

We will be a playoff team in 2014, so we can safely assume that our pick will fall between 21-32.

If the terms were right, I would be okay with parting with the 2015 pick... but the other teams in the league are going to be very aware of the two points I made above, which is why we most likely will not be trading it.

[wist43]

In 9 years, TT has drafted 14 guys in the 4th round, but only 7 in the 3rd. 4 times he has traded out of the 3rd round and not had a 3rd round pick. That would seem to indicate he feels there is usually better value in the 4th than 3rd. I wonder if this year could be different though. With the strength of this draft, there might be value in the 3rd.

TT values players in blocks... if we're picking at the end of Rd 3, and he has the next 20 guys, regardless of position, rated within a whisker of each other, he'll trade out of the round, pick up the extra 6th round pick, and then spend the evening evaluating his options.

Can't remember how far back the draft began splitting the 4th thru 7th rounds into a final day, but ever since that happened, it seems like there is more trading between rds 3 and 4 now b/c of teams eager to jump up and grab a guy they're suprised is still there - and given a night to sleep on it, they're concerned that another team will have time to organize themselves a way to get the player - the same holds true for a team that has a block of players rated together... trade back and pick up the extra pick, and take the evening to reorganize your board.

I suppose some enterprising grad student has written a paper on the variables that have been introduced simply by splitting the draft into more days... but I'm not gonna be bothered to try and track it down, lol

[wist43]

Usually I agree with you, but there are two issues here:

Next year's draft will not be as good as this one, at least not in foresight. The reason has been well publicized.

We will be a playoff team in 2014, so we can safely assume that our pick will fall between 21-32.

If the terms were right, I would be okay with parting with the 2015 pick... but the other teams in the league are going to be very aware of the two points I made above, which is why we most likely will not be trading it.

You know TT will never trade a future pick for a pick today...

A few years back, I think it was the Cowboys were trying to trade up from their second round pick back into the bottom end of the first round... and were offering their second, and next years #1; rumor had it, they offered that deal to TT, but he spit on it, and they gave it to someone else. Can't remember if it was the Cowboys.... I'll see if I can't find when and what that deal was.

[wist43]

I looked it up... it was 2007, and the team that was trying to trade up was Cleveland. They were sitting at pick #36 in the 2nd round, and wanted to move up to draft Brady Quinn, we had the 16th pick.

As I remember, they offered the same trade to the Packers that they ultimately got from Dallas - Dallas had the 22nd pick.

So this is how it all went down.

We took Justin Harrell with pick #16.

Cleveland traded up to #22 and got Brady Quinn.

Dallas went back to pick #36, but traded back up to pick #26 and took DE Anthony Spencer (they gave up picks 36, 87, and 159).

For Dallas after all the dust settled, they really came out the winner... even if they didn't hit home runs on the picks. They ended up trading back 4 spots, as well as a 3rd round (87), and 6th rounder (159) for a 1st rounder the next year. I'd take that trade almost every time.

Pick #36 ended up being QB, Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia.

The 1st round pick in the 2008 draft the Browns ended up giving to the Cowboys was the 22nd pick, and they used that to take Felix Jones, RB.

In that 2008 draft, TT traded out of the 1st round, and did another deal with cleveland and we ended up with Jordy Nelson, WR, Rd 2, pick 36; Brian Brohm, QB, Rd 2, pick 56; and Patrick Lee, CB, Rd 2 Pick 60.

So out of all that mess... 1 first round pick, and 3 second round picks - we ended up with 1 player, Jordy Nelson.

[smuggler]

If he says no, he says no, but if ever he would, this would be the year, in my guess.

[Fritz]

Don't trade away your future. Sure, we think next year's draft won't be so hot, but you all know how much player evals change after a year.

It's weird, but it's more exciting for TT to EITHER trade up OR down than it is to watch him pick right at this spot. I don't know why that is.