Will Cobb earn the big contract many are expecting?

[Brandon494]

Lmao Cobb hasn't lost a thing, unless he is looking for unreal money he will be resigned. Ted isn't going to let a 23 year old future star just walk.

[Striker]

If healthy, Cobb is extended. Simple as that.

[Carolina_Packer]

Good post, 31.

They all pay more for streak route guys bc everybody like to hit streak routes.

Wallace proves that can be fools gold.

Mike Wallace outta be arrested for his contract, he steals money every week he gets paid.

Harder to do 9 routes when your QB is running for his life behind a weak O-line in Miami last year, and 5 new starters this year. Ouch.

The issue there was, Miami wasn't Mike Wallace away from going next level. Their protection and young QB issues will continue to affect Wallace until they get those things fixed and can create play action off of their run game.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Cobbs not going anywhere. I was worried about losing Nelson, not Cobb. I think TT will extend him mid season after he proves he recovered from injury but before he reaches 1200+ yards. He will likely sign a 3 year extension averaging 7 million a year. Added to the last half of his rookie deal it will be worth about 6 million/year. In a few years he'll still only be 27 yo and if he puts together back to back dominate seasons and stays healthy he'll get the 10 million + type deal.

[Patler]

Cobbs not going anywhere. I was worried about losing Nelson, not Cobb. I think TT will extend him mid season after he proves he recovered from injury but before he reaches 1200+ yards. He will likely sign a 3 year extension averaging 7 million a year. Added to the last half of his rookie deal it will be worth about 6 million/year. In a few years he'll still only be 27 yo and if he puts together back to back dominate seasons and stays healthy he'll get the 10 million + type deal.

If you are Cobb, and you reach midseason healthy and on course for a second big season to go with the one you had in 2012, would you sign a 3 year contract averaging $7 million, or take your chances on the second half of the season and shoot for a big money, longer term contract in the off season, perhaps with significant guaranteed money? I think I would take my chances getting to the off season. Even if the second half doesn't go as well, absent a devastating injury, the 3/$7M likely will still be there in the off season.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Another factor not being discussed is Arron Rodgers. This is big leverage for the packers. If I was in Cobbs position I would take 1 or 2 million less/year to stay in GB and play with Rodgers in the prime of his career. I would consider it a long term investment as Rodgers will make me look better and will line me up for another big pay day at only 27 years old.

[RashanGary]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

It does depend on Cobb. Watching the 2010 tape, with Jennings in his prime, that little seam route that was so dominant that year..... Cobb hasnt been as good as Jennings was. If his head is right, a three year deal makes sense. Jennings contract stubbornness blowing up in his face really helped the packers in negotiations and i think that carries over into this one too. I think he'll stay, 3 years, makes sense.

[Patler]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

Or, a Finley-like injury could end it all. While I might be willing to sign the three year extension now, before the season starts, if I make it through the first 8 games or so putting together a big season, I think I would risk the next 8 against the next 40 to 56 games to sign the once-in-a-career big contract.

At some point in your career you have to go for the big one. If it is in sight with 8 games remaining, I would go for it.

[vince]

But to do that he has to play out his contract and risk a career-altering injury this year. Before the season starts I could see him getting something like a 3 year, $20 million extension with a pretty healthy signing bonus. At the end of the contract, he'd still only be 27 (he just turned 24), and be in line for one more big contract similar to what Jordy just got.

That sounds right to me too Joe. Seems like the ideal situation for everyone. Not too different from what Finley got (for 2 years I think his last deal was though) but I'd say Cobb's a better bet.

I wonder who's not on this path yet - Thompson or Cobb. I'm thinking Thompson at the moment... Cobb really hasn't earned that deal yet, but I think he's worth it and then some.

[pbmax]

I am always amazed at everyone's eagerness to turn down money for someone for "their own good".

If he can get $9 million per year and be substantially guaranteed to receive it, he would be foolish not to take it. It could backfire; he could have a problematic year like Jennings did. But it has to be a strong consideration because any deal or any route to a deal will entail risk on his part.

[red]

again with the talk of cobb being a big injury risk, or injury prone

is a-rod an injury risk? is jordy injury prone?

like i've said before, cobb has suffered one freak injury that would have injured anyone that got hit there. other then that he's missed 2 games in 2 years

jordy has missed 7 games in 6 years. does anyone think it was a risk to resign him?. a-rod missed half of last season, does he have to prove to the team he can stay healthy?

[Patler]

I am always amazed at everyone's eagerness to turn down money for someone for "their own good".

If he can get $9 million per year and be substantially guaranteed to receive it, he would be foolish not to take it. It could backfire; he could have a problematic year like Jennings did. But it has to be a strong consideration because any deal or any route to a deal will entail risk on his part.

For guys going into their final contract years and on the cusp of being pro-bowl types, I think the best chance to sign them perhaps at a bargain is before the season starts, or very early in the season. The risks change the second half of the season.

That said, if I'm Cobb and the Packers offer $9M/year for 3 years at any time during the season, I think I would sign it. $7M/year for three years, if it has a decent guarantee, I might sign now, but not in November if I am putting together a big season.

[pbmax]

For guys going into their final contract years and on the cusp of being pro-bowl types, I think the best chance to sign them perhaps at a bargain is before the season starts, or very early in the season. The risks change the second half of the season.

That said, if I'm Cobb and the Packers offer $9M/year for 3 years at any time during the season, I think I would sign it. $7M/year for three years, if it has a decent guarantee, I might sign now, but not in November if I am putting together a big season.

Exactly. When you sign them early, you take away risk from them and replace it not only with more compensation, but some form of guarantee.

The longer that contract plays out, the less risk the player faces. Unless he has a catastrophic year or an injury, his price will not go down as the season progresses.

But I have no feel for how much he will get. I underestimated Nelson's attractiveness to the Packers and slot guys are now more in demand than ever. But right now, he would need to climb another step for me to predict he will clear $9 mil per year.

[Patler]

again with the talk of cobb being a big injury risk, or injury prone

is a-rod an injury risk? is jordy injury prone?

like i've said before, cobb has suffered one freak injury that would have injured anyone that got hit there. other then that he's missed 2 games in 2 years

jordy has missed 7 games in 6 years. does anyone think it was a risk to resign him?. a-rod missed half of last season, does he have to prove to the team he can stay healthy?

Not that it is definitive, but Nelson looks like a guy who might miss a game or two here and there, and that is what he has been. He's bigger than most DBs. Cobb looks like a guy who can get broken in half. Except for his broken leg, he hasn't been that. Driver looked the same. So did Jennings. Hopefully, Cobb's career follows more like that of Drivers than Jennings.

No body expects a player to never be injured. If there is a warning sign for Cobb, it is that in three years he has missed at least a game every year, while playing less than full-time snaps. But, it's only three years, and a broken bone was the big one, and that can be a freak one.

If I am the Packers, I'm not all that worried about Cobbs' injuries. Anyone can break a bone. Anyone can tear up a knee, anyone can screw up his neck...at any time. Those are a team's biggest risks beyond a guy who is frail. If I am Cobb, my risk of a big injury that anyone can get is a factor in what $ I will sign for when, but that is the same for every player.