ARE WE GIVING AROD A FREE PASS ??????????????????

[yetisnowman]

I'm talking about the last couple of minutes of the game. If Seattle would have come back and won that game nobody would be calling Brady clutch. Brady has won a hell of a lot of games with last minute heroics, that's for sure. But if Seattle wins Wilson is the hero and most likely MVP of that game.

Yeah there is some truth to that, the winner gets the glory. I still believe people would be praising Tom for bringing his team back in the fourth, when basically on more failed drive seals the win for Seattle. I don't fault the qbs if they don't have a chance to get the ball back.

[pbmax]

Obviously yes, my God. He was down 10 with 8 minutes left, and led his team to 2 consecutive touchdown drives. He made the most of his opportunities when he had the ball in his hands when his team needed him to do it. Are you arguing he wasn't clutch in that game?

No, you are claiming that. Because according to your analysis of Rodgers, only the last offensive drive of the game matters. What was done to comeback or take the lead prior to that last drive is immaterial.

Otherwise you would be discussing 4th Quarter instances of Rodgers taking the lead after being behind. Somehow that is absent your discussion of Rodgers.

Yet you allow credit for defensive stands to accrue to other quarterbacks.

[ThunderDan]

Lol. Wow. Of course that would be great! Most of the 19 wins came after the Super Bowl win, and we were beaten in our first playoff game that year so yeah that was super fun. I would be happy if we beat every one by 30 points, but when two good teams play each other its usually close. And as a quarterback, close games in the fourth quarter is truly where you cement your legacy. Not beating Minnesota by 40 in October. He had two great games in the Superbowl run, and I will always cherish that run! It was awesome! But that was 4 years ago, and we have an elite qb in his prime, and I am hungry for more.

How about 45-17 over the Giants and 48-21 over ATL at ATL in the playoffs? We should have blown Pittsburg out of the Super Bowl if James Jones doesn't drop the TD pass to put us up 28-3

6 were part of the 2010 Super Bowl season. 13 were part of the 2011 season.

2 blowouts as part of the 2010 season. 3 blowouts as part of the 2011 season.


I have to laugh at the "I am hungry for more" part. First all fans want to win more. Second, there are 31 other teams that are also trying to win the Super Bowl every year (OK, maybe 20 or so realistically). Just because you have Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees or Russell Wilson doesn't guarantee you should or will win the Super Bowl.

[woodbuck27]

Kinda. You made it sound like getting a game winning FG was more clutch than getting a game tying FG late in the game. Perhaps I misunderstood?

This isn't your fault but sometimes threads get over complicated.

The Thread Title is:

ARE WE GIVING AROD A FREE PASS ??????????????????

Now we're discussing .... Comebacks by QB's and Aaron Rodgers { and clutch performance (s) }

Football terms are introduced and definitions may need clarifification ... and .... it gats more complicated.

From: http://www.pro-football-reference.co...cks_career.htm

Comebacks led by quarterback.

Must be an offensive scoring drive in the 4th quarter, with the team trailing by one score, though not necessarily a drive to take the lead.

Only .... games ending in a win or tie are included.

[yetisnowman]

1. You cannot talk about 4th Quarter comebacks and then only talk about the last drive with Rodgers. Thats apples to carrots. In your citing of QB observers and the other QBs who have more 4QC than Rodgers, you do not limit them to the last drive of the game for inclusion.

2. If a drive (not the last drive of a game) ends in a FG to tie or take the lead, the QB has likely done his job and his coach is satisfied with the result. Because unless I am mistaken, the coach calls out the FG unit, not the QB.

The same criteria apply for Aaron to be given credit for a 4qcb, as do for Jay Cutler, Tom Brady, Jon Kitna whoever. You seem like a smart dude, but I really think you are an apologist. Aaron doesn't have a good 4qcb %, irrelevant. He doesn't produce a lot of game winning drives, doesn't matter. He struggles in tough spots in the playoffs, it's the calf and the coaching and the rain and the defense and the receivers and the refs. It's not his fault. That's what I am hearing.
Well it's not ALL his fault, but a good portion is. I'll say it again if he doesn't play better we won't win superbowls. I'm sure if we lose another close game next year in January, there will be a million excuses, but as I said losers make excuses, winners see adversity that they can overcome.

[yetisnowman]

How about 45-17 over the Giants and 48-21 over ATL at ATL in the playoffs? We should have blown Pittsburg out of the Super Bowl if James Jones doesn't drop the TD pass to put us up 28-3

6 were part of the 2010 Super Bowl season. 13 were part of the 2011 season.

2 blowouts as part of the 2010 season. 3 blowouts as part of the 2011 season.


I have to laugh at the "I am hungry for more" part. First all fans want to win more. Second, there are 31 other teams that are also trying to win the Super Bowl every year (OK, maybe 20 or so realistically). Just because you have Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees or Russell Wilson doesn't guarantee you should or will win the Super Bowl.

i just said I cherished the superbowl runs. He had 2 great games, the ones you mentioned. I was just pointing out the 13 game winning in 2011 doesn't mean much to me, because the team wet the bed in the first playoff game. The implication seems to be, that because we had a great run where we beat the crap out of a lot of people, the close losses when taking in the entirety of A-rod's career don't matter that much. I couldn't disagree more.

[pbmax]

The same criteria apply for Aaron to be given credit for a 4qcb, as do for Jay Cutler, Tom Brady, Jon Kitna whoever. You seem like a smart dude, but I really think you are an apologist. Aaron doesn't have a good 4qcb %, irrelevant. He doesn't produce a lot of game winning drives, doesn't matter. He struggles in tough spots in the playoffs, it's the calf and the coaching and the rain and the defense and the receivers and the refs. It's not his fault. That's what I am hearing.
Well it's not ALL his fault, but a good portion is. I'll say it again if he doesn't play better we won't win superbowls. I'm sure if we lose another close game next year in January, there will be a million excuses, but as I said losers make excuses, winners see adversity that they can overcome.

I fully recognize that he isn't good, or even average by the 4QC measure. But the 4QC is not a measure solely within the control of the QB. Its very problematic to judge. So much depends on your coach, the defense and the special teams. The best that can be done within it is to find instances where the QB leads his team to a comeback 4QLead, and then determine if the rest of the team is able to hold onto it.

However, you seem to prefer to look at the last offensive possession to isolate the QB from the D and ST. Problem is, outside of going game by game like we have for 2008, we don't have that data for other QBs. Perfect example is Brady in the SB. He took a lead, but his defense had to make it stand up with a last second near-miracle.

So when, in your breakdown of his 2008 close games, there is a consistent failure to recognize where he had driven the team to a late lead. You recognize only one FG that was blocked as bad luck, the rest were not enough because they weren't determinative. So the 4QC info is telling us something about the Packers, but it may not be telling us something about Rodgers. You have data that is inextricably linked to the coach, the D and the ST and does not isolate the QB at all.

There are two areas that have been further pursued; one was 538 breaking down late INTs, as an estimate of risk taking late. The other was either Chase Stuart or Scott Kacsmar doing a breakdown of defensive breakdowns after its team (and its QB) had retaken the lead. Guess what? Rodgers was among the leaders in his defense giving up a lead. Both these sets of data are in threads on this site.

The conclusion I draw from this is that its a terrible stat to judge QBs on as is. It is by no means clear it can capture a finite quality or capability of a QB, and by no means is it good at distinguishing good QB play from excellent QB play.

[mraynrand]

If we were discussing archery, then we could attribute the failure of fourth quarter comebacks solely to the archer.

[denverYooper]

If we were discussing archery, then we could attribute the failure of fourth quarter comebacks solely to the archer.

Lindsey Vonn took 3rd yesterday in the World Cup Super G because of a gust of wind.

[mraynrand]

And was Brady clutch in the SB on Sunday because he won even tho his defense had to win it for him?

He was still clutch, but he gets a stat point that some think is highly coveted, but required a defensive stand to count. Compare that to Bart Starr back in 1966, when he threw a fourth quarter TD to McGee to go up 34-20 on Dallas. The defense gave up a TD and then had a goal-line stand to win. That doesn't count for Starr as a 'clutch' win according to some of the criteria posted here, because Starr didn't have to mount a late comeback. But he still had to build up those 34 points. So much like many of Rodger's wins, he gets no credit for being 'clutch' because he was so efficient and competent that the game wasn't really close until the last drive.

[mraynrand]

Lindsey Vonn took 3rd yesterday in the World Cup Super G because of a gust of wind.

I chose archery as there is no effect from weather - because I knew one of you smart asses would post something like this.

[denverYooper]

I chose archery as there is no effect from weather - because I knew one of you smart asses would post something like this.

We aim to please.

[yetisnowman]

I fully recognize that he isn't good, or even average by the 4QC measure. But the 4QC is not a measure solely within the control of the QB. Its very problematic to judge. So much depends on your coach, the defense and the special teams. The best that can be done within it is to find instances where the QB leads his team to a comeback 4QLead, and then determine if the rest of the team is able to hold onto it.

However, you seem to prefer to look at the last offensive possession to isolate the QB from the D and ST. Problem is, outside of going game by game like we have for 2008, we don't have that data for other QBs. Perfect example is Brady in the SB. He took a lead, but his defense had to make it stand up with a last second near-miracle.

So when, in your breakdown of his 2008 close games, there is a consistent failure to recognize where he had driven the team to a late lead. You recognize only one FG that was blocked as bad luck, the rest were not enough because they weren't determinative. So the 4QC info is telling us something about the Packers, but it may not be telling us something about Rodgers. You have data that is inextricably linked to the coach, the D and the ST and does not isolate the QB at all.

There are two areas that have been further pursued; one was 538 breaking down late INTs, as an estimate of risk taking late. The other was either Chase Stuart or Scott Kacsmar doing a breakdown of defensive breakdowns after its team (and its QB) had retaken the lead. Guess what? Rodgers was among the leaders in his defense giving up a lead. Both these sets of data are in threads on this site.

The conclusion I draw from this is that its a terrible stat to judge QBs on as is. It is by no means clear it can capture a finite quality or capability of a QB, and by no means is it good at distinguishing good QB play from excellent QB play.

No stat is perfect. I don't mean to diminish the role that coaching, defense, special teams play in all these things. But how a quarterback executes the offense late in close games is as pertinent as anything. You say it's a terrible stat, I disagree. In the 8 examples provided I would argue that all but one involved Aaron and the offense failing to put his team in a good position to win when the game was up for grabs. Or at the very least all but one, offered an example of a qb that could have done more to contribute to a victory when he had the opportunity.

[ThunderDan]

i just said I cherished the superbowl runs. He had 2 great games, the ones you mentioned. I was just pointing out the 13 game winning in 2011 doesn't mean much to me, because the team wet the bed in the first playoff game. The implication seems to be, that because we had a great run where we beat the crap out of a lot of people, the close losses when taking in the entirety of A-rod's career don't matter that much. I couldn't disagree more.

No the implication is it is pretty hard to lead your team back from being behind when you win and lead in each and every game going into the 4th quarter.

So for a stretch of 19 games there was no way that ARod could win one of your special "I brought the team back in the 4th quarter points". It couldn't be done.

[yetisnowman]

He was still clutch, but he gets a stat point that some think is highly coveted, but required a defensive stand to count. Compare that to Bart Starr back in 1966, when he threw a fourth quarter TD to McGee to go up 34-20 on Dallas. The defense gave up a TD and then had a goal-line stand to win. That doesn't count for Starr as a 'clutch' win according to some of the criteria posted here, because Starr didn't have to mount a late comeback. But he still had to build up those 34 points. So much like many of Rodger's wins, he gets no credit for being 'clutch' because he was so efficient and competent that the game wasn't really close until the last drive.

Starr was 9-1 in the playoffs with 5 championships. If you win playoff games, and you win close games, and you win championships every time you play in one, then I am willing to overlook that he didn't come from behind to do it a lot. But when you lose close games, lose playoff games, and fall short more often than not you deserve scrutiny. Everyone. Coaches, players, and especially Aaron.