ARE WE GIVING AROD A FREE PASS ??????????????????

[yetisnowman]

No the implication is it is pretty hard to lead your team back from being behind when you win and lead in each and every game going into the 4th quarter.

So for a stretch of 19 games there was no way that ARod could win one of your special "I brought the team back in the 4th quarter points". It couldn't be done.

Obviously. I enjoy when we lead wire to wire and/or blow people out, but that rarely happens late in the playoffs. Games are tight. I am not faulting him when he doesn't have the opportunity because we were winning the entire 4th quarter. His percentages are low given the opportunities he has had.

[ThunderDan]

Obviously. I enjoy when we lead wire to wire and/or blow people out, but that rarely happens late in the playoffs. Games are tight. I am not faulting him when he doesn't have the opportunity because we were winning the entire 4th quarter. His percentages are low given the opportunities he has had.

Does the Dallas game count? I mean Arod did bring us back from 21-13 down. Of course we had the ball again and just ran out the clock on our last possession.

[yetisnowman]

Does the Dallas game count? I mean Arod did bring us back from 21-13 down. Of course we had the ball again and just ran out the clock on our last possession.

Yes it counts. Like I said if you read back a little bit, he made great strides this season in that regard. Dallas, Miami, and NE. Those games he showed great poise and leadership late in the games.

[ThunderDan]

Yes it counts. Like I said if you read back a little bit, he made great strides this season in that regard. Dallas, Miami, and NE. Those games he showed great poise and leadership late in the games.

How does the NE game count?

We were up 23-14 at half and at the beginning of the 4th quarter. We won 26-21. That doesn't meet the criteria you have thrown out. In fact, it shows that Brady is not clutch.

[mraynrand]

Starr was 9-1 in the playoffs with 5 championships. If you win playoff games, and you win close games, and you win championships every time you play in one, then I am willing to overlook that he didn't come from behind to do it a lot. But when you lose close games, lose playoff games, and fall short more often than not you deserve scrutiny. Everyone. Coaches, players, and especially Aaron.

I see, so it isn't about principle, it's about wins.

[yetisnowman]

How does the NE game count?

We were up 23-14 at half and at the beginning of the 4th quarter. We won 26-21. That doesn't meet the criteria you have thrown out. In fact, it shows that Brady is not clutch.

I never said 4qcbs was a perfect metric or the ONLY criteria relevant to analyzing qb play. It is just one statistical example of the team and aaron's struggles in those spots. That is the point that he isn't typically great in those spots. And that particular stat i think validates that claim. It isn't perfect, but it certainly isn't innaccurate.

I don't care if we are behind or ahead in a close game . Late in those games the way a qb executes is extremely important. That is why i consider the NE game to be clutch from aaron. He threw what would have been game clinching TD that was dropped.

[mraynrand]

I don't care if we are behind or ahead in a close game . Late in those games the way a qb executes is extremely important. That is why i consider the NE game to be clutch from aaron. He threw what would have been game clinching TD that was dropped.

really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.

[th87]

How does the NE game count?

We were up 23-14 at half and at the beginning of the 4th quarter. We won 26-21. That doesn't meet the criteria you have thrown out. In fact, it shows that Brady is not clutch.

Why so defensive? YS is providing a nuanced take - that the Packers have had difficulties in close games in the 4th quarter, in which Rodgers wasn't fully culpable, but was a factor; difficulties which have been improved upon recently.

I think that's totally fair.

[th87]

really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

[ThunderDan]

Why so defensive? YS is providing a nuanced take - that the Packers have had difficulties in close games in the 4th quarter, in which Rodgers wasn't fully culpable, but was a factor; difficulties which have been improved upon recently.

I think that's totally fair.

I am not being defensive. I am trying to understand what the actual measurements are and how they actually work. It seems like YS method penalizes teams that are offensively explosive or start fast in games and win. I pointed out that our 19 game winning streak, which included a Super Bowl, earned ARod zero on YS rating scale.

Football is such a team game that it is very hard to blame a QB for winning or losing just on the last drive or a "clutch factor" in a game.

The perfect example to me is the Seattle game. If Ha Ha knocks down Wilson's balloon ball prayer two point conversion or instead of jumping to go after the ball tackles the TE after he catched the ball short of the end zone, ARod would be deemed clutch for leading the team down for a FG to win the game. Instead, ARod isn't clutch and gets blamed in this thread.

[yetisnowman]

[QUOTE=mraynrand;827275]really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.[/QU

If i felt like dropped passes and receivers running the wrong route were the rule and not the exception I would agree with you.

With a big enough sample size these things tend to even out with qbs. Is Arod the unluckiest qb ever? No. The Packers aren't the only team that struggles in special teams and has drops sometimes. Remember Welker's huge drop in the 2011 super bowl?

[Smidgeon]

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

There are two areas that have been further pursued; one was 538 breaking down late INTs, as an estimate of risk taking late. The other was either Chase Stuart or Scott Kacsmar doing a breakdown of defensive breakdowns after its team (and its QB) had retaken the lead. Guess what? Rodgers was among the leaders in his defense giving up a lead. Both these sets of data are in threads on this site.

Yes. While other QBs are the victim of this and other QBs would benefit from this type of analysis, what we're saying here is due to Sanders/Capers/Slocum/defense/special teams, Rodgers in general hasn't had the other parts of the team bail him out as much as other QBs have. The Bears defenses consistently putting Cutler in a position to win are a great example of this.

I'm not saying that Rodgers can't improve. He can. But this metric--due to our recent bad Q4 defenses--puts him on the other end of the spectrum from Tom Brady and Russel Wilson.

[mraynrand]

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

No, it depends on the relative quality of the receivers and whether they are 'clutch.' So you need deep analysis of all receivers and expert analysis by people familiar with the routes, etc.

And better QBs might be even MORE victimized as eventually their greatness and $$ tend to reduce the quality of available receivers. Making Tom Brady all the more impressive. Even Bert had some great comebacks throwing the ball to a collection of losers, like Kittrick Taylor, Corey Bradford, Jeff Thomason, and David Martin. Fortunately, Favre sucked enough to put himself in position for some awesome comebacks, making him collectively better than Rodgers, who typically refuses to throw early interceptions that put the Packers in a hole from which he can then rescue them.

[Striker]

I know I for one would rather have a clutch QB who maybe is barely .500 in his career than a QB who is only a frontrunner and chokes in one score games despite a sterling regular season record and actual playoff appearances.

[Smidgeon]

I know I for one would rather have a clutch QB who maybe is barely .500 in his career than a QB who is only a frontrunner and chokes in one score games despite a sterling regular season record and actual playoff appearances.

Peyton Manning?