Official Super Bowl XLIX Thread

[pbmax]

3 of 8 passing isn't 50% either.

Either way your formation has to allow you to do both. The 5 WR sets or 4 WR/1TE sets remove everything but a QB draw.

Which is a fine option for Rodgers (healthy) or Wilson, less likely for Brady, though he has done it.

[King Friday]

Look at PFF's numbers for Seattle's runs at the 1 yard line in the last three years (all with Lynch). They were 10 of 23. Less than 50% success rate.

And they had two opportunities to give the ball to Lynch...which means your success rate "statistically" just jumped to 87%. Technically, they could've probably gotten a 3rd chance off if necessary if they had run the first play a little quicker. Now you are over 100%.

[King Friday]

To increase your odds for either option to succeed, need to keep alive possibility that either could be called. That's why M3's empty backfield red zone is problematic. It was less problematic with Driver, Jennings, Jones and Ruvell (big target), but it leverages the defense against your call before the ball is snapped.

I've got no argument there...if you are going to throw in the redzone, especially inside the 5 yard line, you should almost always do it off legitimate play action.

[King Friday]

The point is...all the "advanced metrics" tell us that McCarthy and Carroll apparently did the right things...and both guys wound up losing.

So...are advanced metrics really to be believed in football?

[denverYooper]

And they had two opportunities to give the ball to Lynch...which means your success rate "statistically" just jumped to 87%. Technically, they could've probably gotten a 3rd chance off if necessary if they had run the first play a little quicker. Now you are over 100%.

The probability wouldn't be additive. And the clock is a factor.

[pbmax]

And they had two opportunities to give the ball to Lynch...which means your success rate "statistically" just jumped to 87%. Technically, they could've probably gotten a 3rd chance off if necessary if they had run the first play a little quicker. Now you are over 100%.

You can't get over 100% on a 43% chance in three tries.

But the problem is the clock here. With 26 seconds, you need two stoppages to get three plays off. You could run, call TO, pass and (assume incomplete) then run again.

[pbmax]

Man, people never forget:

Jason Wilde @jasonjwilde 40s40 seconds ago
Used to blame INTs on Tony Simmons at Wisconsin, too. RT @bcondotta: Darrell Bevell says Lockette could have been stronger to the ball.

[Pugger]

And I thought MM made some bone-headed play calls. That takes the prize for the stupidest call of the year.

Russel Wilson has not impressed me the last two games. He gets way too many props.

[denverYooper]

Man, people never forget:

Jason Wilde @jasonjwilde 40s40 seconds ago
Used to blame INTs on Tony Simmons at Wisconsin, too. RT @bcondotta: Darrell Bevell says Lockette could have been stronger to the ball.

LOL. I was going to post Wilde's quote too.

[pbmax]

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/analysis/game-analysis/228-should-sea-have-run-on-2nd-down?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

By Brian Burke
01 February 2015
It was 2nd and goal from the 1 with 26 seconds at the snap. SEA had 1 timeout. If SEA runs the ball on 2nd down and fails to score, that means they must call their final timeout to save time for 3rd and 4th down. And that means they must pass on 3rd down for there to be time for a 4th down.

Passing on 2nd down allows SEA the option of running on 3rd down if necessary, and forces the NE defense to respect both options on all potential remaining downs.

Lynch is a beast, no doubt. He was born for that moment. And he would make a great decoy on 2nd down. It was simply an excellent play by NE’s Malcolm Butler, and it was the one outcome that could backfire on SEA’s decision to pass.

The play call itself, I can't account for that. Perhaps it was a go-to play that they felt confident about.

The one flaw here is the assumption that you MUST pass on 3rd down after you call a TO. Percentage wise you want the extra down and shot, but you could catch NE playing pass all the way.

If you are Belichick on 3rd down, 18 seconds left, no Seattle TOs, do you play pass?

[Pugger]

I've never been so happy to see another team lose.

Well, maybe the Vikings in 2009.

Yup, karma is a bitch.

[pbmax]

Brian Burke @Adv_NFL_Stats 4m4 minutes ago
WOPR sim disagrees with its creator. Says SEA should have run. Risk of sack, turnover, & pen outweighs risk of not having time for 4th down.

[King Friday]

You can't get over 100% on a 43% chance in three tries.

But the problem is the clock here. With 26 seconds, you need two stoppages to get three plays off. You could run, call TO, pass and (assume incomplete) then run again.

Yeah...this is where I'm shocked the Seahawks let the clock run down so much. With only 1 time out left...I think the smartest play is to try to run first. Do it with about 38-40 seconds left...so you use the time out with just over 30 seconds left if unsuccessful. Now, you are free to still do whatever you want...because you can call two plays in the time out, and a failed run on 3rd down still gives you 25+ seconds to set up for another play. If you wind down the clock too much, it makes your play-calling more predictable. You can't worry about leaving time on the clock in that scenario...you need to use the clock in whatever manner gives you the greater advantage on the field to score the TD you need to retake the lead.

[Bossman641]

i hope tj lang and every other asshole on the team that soiled the uniformed this season gets shipped out of town in the offseason

honestly, don't ever need to see any of the coaches or players wearing green and gold again. i'd rather watch us go full blown rebuild and spend the next 10 years going 1-15 then to watch any of these pussies play for us again

NO

[King Friday]

Brian Burke @Adv_NFL_Stats 4m4 minutes ago
WOPR sim disagrees with its creator. Says SEA should have run. Risk of sack, turnover, & pen outweighs risk of not having time for 4th down.

LMAO. This is what happens when you leave it up to computers.

They'd have forced us to watch a boring NCAA championship game of Florida State and Alabama if we had let them!