Official Super Bowl XLIX Thread

[Cheesehead Craig]

[pbmax]

Serious question: I think the Derp is getting waist deep on the pass call. Yesterday I read and today I heard on the radio that all you need to run a run play is 5 to 6 seconds.

How long, at the goalline, does it take Lynch or Wilson to run, get stuffed, get piled on (because the Patriots will do that), have the refs pull people out of the pile, set the football and allow a play to be run?

I say its a minimum of 10 seconds and if you count on that happening, half the time you will fail to get a play off.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Agree pb. There would be piling on for sure. I'd say 10 seconds is fast because the SEA players would be pulling and grabbing the NE players on the pile. Then there's the inevitable pushing and shoving that would happen.

[Joemailman]

I don't think this was a dumb move by Carroll as much as a brilliant and gutsy move by Belichick. He baited Carroll into throwing the ball by letting time run off the clock and by bringing in his run package. When Wilson threw the ball they knew what was coming because they had seen Seattle run it before. That's why Butler was able to get such a great break on the ball.

[pbmax]

I don't think this was a dumb move by Carroll as much as a brilliant and gutsy move by Belichick. He baited Carroll into throwing the ball by letting time run off the clock and by bringing in his run package. When Wilson threw the ball they knew what was coming because they had seen Seattle run it before. That's why Butler was able to get such a great break on the ball.

I am not sure Belichick's awareness extended to the play call. They have to have more than one pass option in short yardage.

But I am sure the goalline defense was out there for Lynch. I am just not too sure anyone else would do anything different. Even Capers has to expect Lynch even with 3 WRs, no?

[Bossman641]

I am not sure Belichick's awareness extended to the play call. They have to have more than one pass option in short yardage.

But I am sure the goalline defense was out there for Lynch. I am just not too sure anyone else would do anything different. Even Capers has to expect Lynch even with 3 WRs, no?

Capers would have run a 1-5-5 and vacated the middle of the field

I'm tired of Belichick getting credit for screwing up the last minute of the game. He played it horribly and would be getting a ton of blowback if Seattle had just run the ball like they should have. Go back to my stat that NE had allowed rushing TD on 5 of 6 attempts from the 1.

[3irty1]

Belichick could have figured there was a chance they could get greedy and pass because of the time on the clock, so he waited to see their formation before calling TO. When they came out in shotgun he held out. An incomplete would have stopped the clock for him anyways.

[3irty1]

I am not sure Belichick's awareness extended to the play call. They have to have more than one pass option in short yardage.

But I am sure the goalline defense was out there for Lynch. I am just not too sure anyone else would do anything different. Even Capers has to expect Lynch even with 3 WRs, no?

Seems a lot more unlikely out of shotgun though.

[mraynrand]

no, he has 32.7% chance of scoring.

It was a joke about Peter Graves. Still, where's our resident statistician, Dyoop? I think you got this backwards Bobble. 5 chances at 20% gives you a 1-(.8)e5 = 0.672 chance of scoring.

[Bossman641]

Belichick could have figured there was a chance they could get greedy and pass because of the time on the clock, so he waited to see their formation before calling TO. When they came out in shotgun he held out. An incomplete would have stopped the clock for him anyways.

Isn't the 35-40 seconds more valuable than the timeout at that point? Unless Belichick is a cyborg who can see into the future.

[mraynrand]

Capers would have run a 1-5-5 and vacated the middle of the field

LOL. Unsound!

[wist43]

Serious question: I think the Derp is getting waist deep on the pass call. Yesterday I read and today I heard on the radio that all you need to run a run play is 5 to 6 seconds.

How long, at the goalline, does it take Lynch or Wilson to run, get stuffed, get piled on (because the Patriots will do that), have the refs pull people out of the pile, set the football and allow a play to be run?

I say its a minimum of 10 seconds and if you count on that happening, half the time you will fail to get a play off.

If Seattle runs on 2nd down and doesn't make it, they don't wait for the refs to unpile... they'd burn their last TO as soon as the whistle blew, so that time would run off the clock.

If that scenario had played out, then the next call would be a pass - it's either a TD or incomplete, in which case the clock stops again. Then you're down to 4th and all the marbles - run or pass.

That's the way Seattle should have played it.

As for Belichick - he completely screwed up by not calling the TO. In that situation, it is his responsibility to give his team as many options as possible to win, by not calling the TO he gave his team 1 chance, and 1 chance only; if he had called the TO, he gives his team 2 chances. Pure and simple, it is just playing the odds - he screwed it up, but got away with it.

[Freak Out]

If Seattle runs on 2nd down and doesn't make it, they don't wait for the refs to unpile... they'd burn their last TO as soon as the whistle blew, so that time would run off the clock.

If that scenario had played out, then the next call would be a pass - it's either a TD or incomplete, in which case the clock stops again. Then you're down to 4th and all the marbles - run or pass.

That's the way Seattle should have played it.

As for Belichick - he completely screwed up by not calling the TO. In that situation, it is his responsibility to give his team as many options as possible to win, by not calling the TO he gave his team 1 chance, and 1 chance only; if he had called the TO, he gives his team 2 chances. Pure and simple, it is just playing the odds - he screwed it up, but got away with it.

....or intercepted.

[pbmax]

It does, but you can't send out a personnel group and know whether its shotgun or not, even in no huddle that can change. The matchup is predicated on personnel only.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

I must have listened to 30 different radio shows on 18 hr drive from Denver, all 30 blamed the seachicken offensive coordinator, no one blamed carrol. Doesn't head coach always review and agree/disagree with plays?