Brady 4 Game Suspension Upheld

[pbmax]

The Judge in the case seems to accept at face value that the balls were deflated. So Narrative 1, Science 0 on that front. Has to help the NFL.

[pbmax]

It gets kind of circular: Goodell should have had a toothless fine/punishment for Brady that Brady and team would accepts, so that he could retain the 'teeth' to fine in the future - but that teeth depends on being able to enact real fines and real punishments relying on less rigor than the criminal justice system which now looks to be less likely going forward. So, the league loses - if Brady is allowed to 'walk' in this case - even if, as PB argues, Brady is effectively 'totally clean' and nothing can be 'proven.'

The League is bound up by rules in the CBA, but not bound by criminal or civil standards in the Courts for discipline. Smuggler had a fine point that Federal Judges have to give wide latitude to CBA policies and procedures. I think Patler is mistaking CBA involvement for the commish tripping over his own feet.

The Commish has a virtually free hand to increase penalties for infractions that fall under game integrity or Player Conduct or conduct detrimental to the game. He did this after the second Rice video leaked. He just couldn't use that standard in cases already before him, acts committed prior to the new policy.

He hands Brady the fine, the team still has the same penalty (there is no defense to removing the balls early from the refs) and then he convenes the competition committee to change the chain of custody policy on the stupid balls. Then he passes a new set of penalties for game equipment tampering AND he gives the players a copy of the Game Integrity policy.

Done. And done competently. Goodell just seems to prefer to have one press conference to announce he is eradicating a plague single-handedly. I also don't think he does well thinking long term about getting buy in from players and teams on this stuff. Tagliabue's excoriation of him when he overturned most of BountyGate still stands as the best indictment of Goodell's methods.

[mraynrand]

The Judge in the case seems to accept at face value that the balls were deflated. So Narrative 1, Science 0 on that front. Has to help the NFL.

The science only showed that they could possibly have naturally deflated. You know this right? Science doesn't disprove that there was an intentional effort on the part of Brady and NE to go outside the rules and change the inflation to suit them. And 'Narrative' is a nice euphemism for 'inculpatory evidence'

[sharpe1027]

The Judge in the case seems to accept at face value that the balls were deflated. So Narrative 1, Science 0 on that front. Has to help the NFL.

Defining one finding/view as "science" and the other as "narrative" doesn't make you more correct.

[pbmax]

The science only showed that they could possibly have naturally deflated. You know this right? Science doesn't disprove that there was an intentional effort on the part of Brady and NE to go outside the rules and change the inflation to suit them. And 'Narrative' is a nice euphemism for 'inculpatory evidence'

Yes I do. But since there is no direct evidence of deflation operations, the fact that science CAN explain the lower pressure places a greater burden on other evidence to show the crime.

And that evidence rests on the belief the conspiracy existed for one game. Its swiss cheese.

I agree that the Pats were up to something. But this was dumb hill to choose to die on.

[pbmax]

Defining one finding/view as "science" and the other as "narrative" doesn't make you more correct.

No, but the court should be concerned with the fact that most cold weather games are played with deflated balls and no one gets investigated. Until you run into an ex-Jet employee, acting on tips from the Ravens and Colts. And the evidence you use to initiate the investigation was in the hands of the Colts prior to halftime.

[mraynrand]

The League is bound up by rules in the CBA, but not bound by criminal or civil standards in the Courts for discipline. Smuggler had a fine point that Federal Judges have to give wide latitude to CBA policies and procedures. I think Patler is mistaking CBA involvement for the commish tripping over his own feet.

The Commish has a virtually free hand to increase penalties for infractions that fall under game integrity or Player Conduct or conduct detrimental to the game. He did this after the second Rice video leaked. He just couldn't use that standard in cases already before him, acts committed prior to the new policy.

He hands Brady the fine, the team still has the same penalty (there is no defense to removing the balls early from the refs) and then he convenes the competition committee to change the chain of custody policy on the stupid balls. Then he passes a new set of penalties for game equipment tampering AND he gives the players a copy of the Game Integrity policy.

Done. And done competently. Goodell just seems to prefer to have one press conference to announce he is eradicating a plague single-handedly. I also don't think he does well thinking long term about getting buy in from players and teams on this stuff. Tagliabue's excoriation of him when he overturned most of BountyGate still stands as the best indictment of Goodell's methods.

I certainly agree it could have been handled better.

[mraynrand]

Yes I do. But since there is no direct evidence of deflation operations, the fact that science CAN explain the lower pressure places a greater burden on other evidence to show the crime.

And that evidence rests on the belief the conspiracy existed for one game. Its swiss cheese.

I agree that the Pats were up to something. But this was dumb hill to choose to die on.

You make good points, but "the fact that science CAN explain the lower pressure places a greater burden on other evidence to show the crime." OK, I'll just look at the cell phone records...

Yes, science shows that the old man could have slipped down the stairs and died, but we're trying to find out whether he was pushed by his wife.

[Patler]

No, pb, I am not confusing things; however, I also am not interpreting everything in the same way that you are. I also believe your nice neat little package for letting Brady off virtually scot-free would not have accomplished in any way shape or form what the powers to be hoped to accomplish in this situation. However, it would have shown them to prostrate themselves belly-up in front of Brady, Belichick and the Patriots.

[sharpe1027]

No, but the court should be concerned with the fact that most cold weather games are played with deflated balls and no one gets investigated. Until you run into an ex-Jet employee, acting on tips from the Ravens and Colts. And the evidence you use to initiate the investigation was in the hands of the Colts prior to halftime.

Now you are telling us what the court should and shouldn't do? You seem very dismissive of anyone else's take on this, whether it be fellow posters or the court.

Perhaps, just perhaps, the "narrative" is far more compelling evidence than you are giving it credit and the "science" is also not what you make it out to be.

[Guiness]

The science only showed that they could possibly have naturally deflated. You know this right? Science doesn't disprove that there was an intentional effort on the part of Brady and NE to go outside the rules and change the inflation to suit them. And 'Narrative' is a nice euphemism for 'inculpatory evidence'

Huh? How could the gas law prove that the Pats didn't deflate them? It can't prove that negative, what it did was show there was a way other than actually letting the air out to get to a lower pressure than the refs set them to.

People have go to jail without any concrete evidence all the time. Saying that it is circumstantial does not prove your point.

There's something humorous (and correct) in the statement that my saying it's all circumstantial proves nothing

I think you misunderstand me in thinking that I'm defending Brady or making any judgment that he did or didn't do anything. What I think is that the NFL had a little kangaroo court, and now it's been exposed.

[pbmax]

No, pb, I am not confusing things; however, I also am not interpreting everything in the same way that you are. I also believe your nice neat little package for letting Brady off virtually scot-free would not have accomplished in any way shape or form what the powers to be hoped to accomplish in this situation. However, it would have shown them to prostrate themselves belly-up in front of Brady, Belichick and the Patriots.

That may be the case, that the League Office is under siege for a perceived pro-Pats bias (or just from anti-Pats sentiment of other clubs). But that should fall under the same consideration about how strong your case is. They obviously misjudged it as we are on version 3 of what Brady is being punished for. Even the judge today pointed out the lack of direct evidence for Brady and the paltry evidence on conspiracy.

If Goodell's standing is in bad enough shape (possible after Rice, Peterson and Hardy) that he cannot stand a revolt over Patriot related cheating allegations, the I guess dying on this hill could be viewed as expected. But Rogers' weakness isn't a reason to put the conduct policies in the shredder. The Commish needs to function better on a regular basis. Roger hit the franchise relatively hard, largest fine ever and two draft picks forfeited (one of them a #1). And he can still forestall future iterations of Patriots running over the edges of this rule.

But mainly he has to get better performance from himself and his staff. When they gave ball prep back to the QBs, they should have accounted for tampering by keeping records and locking the balls up with the refs, where only the refs can release them. Florio is right, the methods used by the League after they gave the balls back to the QBs showed the NFL did not take inflation seriously, and did not understand the science behind it. Indeed, the easiest solution to this situation would have been to put in better procedures after the report from the Ravens through the Colts prior to the game.

If their goal is to hurt the Patriots with a few losses to prevent future envelope pushing, they need to be much more careful. And Roger needs better tools to punish teams, because that is where his evidence is best in this case.

[pbmax]

Now you are telling us what the court should and shouldn't do? You seem very dismissive of anyone else's take on this, whether it be fellow posters or the court.

Perhaps, just perhaps, the "narrative" is far more compelling evidence than you are giving it credit and the "science" is also not what you make it out to be.

I do not mean to dismiss you arguments. I agree you an Patler could be right. When this all went down and the texts were first revealed, I thought Brady should be gone, so I understand your position.

But for the court to accept that deflation happened artificially is unfortunate*. Rand may be right that we cannot 100% rule out tampering, but there is still a good chance that environment played a large role in the halftime readings.


*The Court's hands are probably tied here, as this is an appeal and no new fact finding happens (or is not supposed to happen) at the appeal. So the other studies may not enter into it, unless the NFLPA included them in their filings.

[mraynrand]

Huh? How could the gas law prove that the Pats didn't deflate them? It can't prove that negative, what it did was show there was a way other than actually letting the air out to get to a lower pressure than the refs set them to.

My point only is that the science is limited to presenting the possibility that the deflation was natural. That's it. But I don't think that's all that important. Grampa died tumbling down the stairs. Science says he could have slipped (we measured the frictional shear force of his slippers on the carpet and it's weak enough not to hold his weight from a standard step too close to the top stair), but doesn't necessarily help us to determine whether he was pushed by Granny.

And now I'm done. I just don't care enough to haggle anymore!

[sharpe1027]

I do not mean to dismiss you arguments. I agree you an Patler could be right. When this all went down and the texts were first revealed, I thought Brady should be gone, so I understand your position.

But for the court to accept that deflation happened artificially is unfortunate*. Rand may be right that we cannot 100% rule out tampering, but there is still a good chance that environment played a large role in the halftime readings.


*The Court's hands are probably tied here, as this is an appeal and no new fact finding happens (or is not supposed to happen) at the appeal. So the other studies may not enter into it, unless the NFLPA included them in their filings.

OK, sorry if I misunderstood. This is the first time you have acknowledged the possibility that there might be sufficient evidence, at least from someone else's perspective. I think we all agree that environment played a large role in the halftime readings. This was in the Well's report as well. We just disagree on whether or not there is evidence to support that deflation likely played a role in addition to the environment.

I think there is evidence that McNally let air out of the balls and that the judge is reasonable in reaching the conclusion. It is based upon direct evidence of McNally's actions on that day, and indirect evidence of his motives and intent.