More Banjo: Week 17 vs Vikings

[mraynrand]

I've never before heard of a stop-go-and-go. But I have eaten at Pizza-a-go-go.

[mraynrand]

Part of what has made Rodgers great has been his accuracy on deep throws, and his accuracy while moving. He has not exhibited that this year at all often. The throw to Jones was not an exceptionally difficult one for a player of AR's caliber, or former caliber. He missed it badly. He has missed a lot of deep throws this year, more than his previous normal would suggest.

The miss on the one in question was totally understandable. Another to Jones thrown to of the end zone was not. Should have given Jones a chance to make a play on the ball or be interfered with. Also, the late INT was unforgivable. Rodgers is not sharp right now.

[Patler]

He is. But the success rate isn't going to be fantastic on a deep route improvisation when you are about to be hit from the right, meaning, you can't get dialed into his last move. There is a reason defenses want to delay routes, disrupt timing and move the QB off their spot.

On that play they did all three and that is why the Packer offense has been stultified.

On that play, they did not do all three. Rodgers never moved off the spot he set up in after taking the snap. He looked to Jones, took the stride he wanted and threw. The protection was OK. It looked like he was following Jones for most of the route, but then underthrew it badly. There might have been late pressure from his right, but it did not cause him to move, or hurry his throw, or alter his throw. I don't think he was hit at all on the throw. Had he wanted, he had room to drift to his left, as Sitton had taken his guy past and around Rodgers 3-4 yards deeper and to Rodgers right, and Walker and Linsley had the rest of that sides topped about 3-4 yards in front of Rodgers before he stepped into his throw.

[mraynrand]

^^^ I get the feeling there may be confusion about which throw was which. I remember pressure on the stop-go-and-go-go. I don't really want to look through the game to check, but I might later.

[Maxie the Taxi]

^^^Judge Judy says....For what it's worth, Patler is correct. I re-ran and stop-actioned that play several times during the game after it happened. The execution was perfect all around except for the accuracy of the throw. It was one of the few times a Packer receiver had gained separation.

[Patler]

^^^ I get the feeling there may be confusion about which throw was which. I remember pressure on the stop-go-and-go-go. I don't really want to look through the game to check, but I might later.

I did check it, before writing what I did, to be sure it was as I remembered. It was at 0:52 remaining in the 2nd. 4th down, following the review of the Richard Rodgers completed pass/fumble/incomplete review (Announcers belabored the discussion of his wrist or calf hitting the ground.)

[pbmax]

Part of what has made Rodgers great has been his accuracy on deep throws, and his accuracy while moving. He has not exhibited that this year at all often. The throw to Jones was not an exceptionally difficult one for a player of AR's caliber, or former caliber. He missed it badly. He has missed a lot of deep throws this year, more than his previous normal would suggest.

My guess is that Rodgers is a Top 5 deep thrower in the League. I've seen some passing stats at Football Perspective that usually have Roethliesberger and Palmer at the top and occasionally a couple of others. I don't think he is otherworldly, but its a strength and the Packers, more than most teams, take advantage of it. I would also put him a step or two above Favre on deep throws and it has nothing to do with arm strength.

But it requires help at the other end, even if he were the best. Jones was useless as a deep threat on a Go as a younger player until they stopped throwing it over his shoulder and started throwing it over his head (or back shouldering it). And his best deep target is gone this year.

Jordy Nelson 2014    -     -   -    -      -        -      Result Result Result Result Result Results
Tm               Games Play To Go  YARDS  1stDown% TurnO%    TD       FG    1st    Int    Fum    Sack
GNB                 15   36  8.25  28.86   100.00%  0.00%     8       0     36       0      0       0
Totals              15   36  8.25  28.86   100.00%  0.00%     8       0     36       0      0       0
Pct                                                        22.20%     0%   100%      0%    0%      0%

Nelson was on the receiving end of 36 pass plays greater than 15 yards, yielding 36 more first downs (likely 28 if exclude TDs) and 8 TDs.

Some portion of Nelson is responsible for almost 2 first downs per game and 3.5 points per game just on long balls (though I cannot separate out YAC). And that leaves his other targets and catches to be redistributed to the other current receivers this year (62 catches and 5 TDs).

Would you remember the overthrows to Adams and Janis, or the under throws to Jones if the Packers had 36 more deep plays?

Rodgers isn't blameless, his play has been very average at best over the last 12 games. But I think the answer to the deep plays is more personnel than Rodgers.

[pbmax]

Are we sure Rodgers wasn't knocked or tackled to the ground after releasing that ball? I could be misremembering it.

[Patler]

Are we sure Rodgers wasn't knocked or tackled to the ground after releasing that ball? I could be misremembering it.

If he was, it should have been a penalty. Just watched it again. As Rodgers is cocking his arm, there is no one very close to him. The video breaks away from him to follow the ball after he has released it, and when Rodgers is last seen it doesn't appear that he has been touched, and the ball is well on its flight. The view was distant, not tight, showing a full 20 yards on my screen. The nearest rusher looks to be a good two steps away, with Rodgers basically stationary. At most, one defender may have love-tapped him but certainly should not have been allowed to tackle him or even hit him at all hard.

[pbmax]

The play I remember he got tackled from right to left after he stepped up and slid over left a step. So I might be confusing two different plays. But I stand by the point, his O line has compounded the problems he has had connecting with this group of receivers deep. And even when clean, he has no feel how to connect deep with them.

To pull back a bit, outside of Magical Abby, he also has not formed any kind of rapport with other receivers. Force feeding Adams didn't work. Jones is limited physically. I can accept that the coaching staff is more down on Janis than Rodgers, but Abby on the bench just seems counter productive at this point.

[Fritz]

They should call that route the Whiskey-a-go-go in honor of Jim Morrison.

To me, that was a throw Rodgers hasn't missed in years past. Not like he's missed this year. There was another play earlier, for a first down, that looked like by NFL standards an easy out. Rodgers nearly threw it into the stands, and he had no pressure. He just missed it. This must be what it feels like for most NFL fans.

Increasingly, I blame Olivia Munn.

[Patler]

They should call that route the Whiskey-a-go-go in honor of Jim Morrison.

To me, that was a throw Rodgers hasn't missed in years past. Not like he's missed this year. There was another play earlier, for a first down, that looked like by NFL standards an easy out. Rodgers nearly threw it into the stands, and he had no pressure. He just missed it. This must be what it feels like for most NFL fans.

Increasingly, I blame Olivia Munn.

Might be the same play I am remembering that was also to Jones. He turned for the ball, and his shoulders and arms just dropped. You could see how his body was coiled to go for the ball, and when he saw the throw everything drained. The body language was "What the heck...?"

[Carolina_Packer]

Ravens were all but out until Flacco hit that bomb to Jacoby Jones in Denver that year.

Jacoby Jones
Jeffery Janis

Erie, isn't it?

I think Huron to something. Just don't act Superior.

[Fritz]

Might be the same play I am remembering that was also to Jones. He turned for the ball, and his shoulders and arms just dropped. You could see how his body was coiled to go for the ball, and when he saw the throw everything drained. The body language was "What the heck...?"

Yes, it was to Jones, in the first half. It was strange because there was no pressure and Jones was wide open. And the only way you could say Jones ran the wrong route would be if he was supposed to cut hard outside until he was levitating seven yards in the air by the Gatorade stand seven yards behind the sideline. That's how bad that throw was.

[Carolina_Packer]

Part of what has made Rodgers great has been his accuracy on deep throws, and his accuracy while moving. He has not exhibited that this year at all often. The throw to Jones was not an exceptionally difficult one for a player of AR's caliber, or former caliber. He missed it badly. He has missed a lot of deep throws this year, more than his previous normal would suggest.

As I wondered in a different thread last week; is this the result of all the hits, hurries and sacks, and the frustration of having no consistent man beaters at WR? As cool and collected as AR seems to be at times, how could the cumulative affects of both not get you off your game?