2016 Draft

[red]

Updated report on Jaylon Smith still projects he will miss entire 2016 season. What to do with a top 5 talent recovering from a bad knee injury? I'm guessing he goes sometime on Friday.

i think he still goes in the first

i think i agree with him, from what i've seen, he probably IS the best defensive player in the draft

he's got special talent, someone will probably jump on him in the first IMO

too bad we don't have a backup plan at ILB where we could afford to redshirt a guy for a year

[red]

Another thing to consider -- and which Patler alluded to re: the Hawk pick at #5, is that some years there aren't 32 players considered by scouts as worthy of being a 1st round pick...so those players get picked even though they are 2nd round talent. This year is supposedly one of those years, BTW.
The round (and in the case of the 1st round, where) a player is taken matters from an expectation of talent and performance. I'd expect a Top 5 player to be more likely to make more Pro Bowls over their career than someone taken at the end of the 1st round, and more likely to make the Pro Bowl within 3 years vs. someone taken at the bottom of the 5th round.

i don't understand or buy this argument at all that TT misses on so many first round picks because he always picks later in the round

and the evidence is that so many good players go in all the other rounds each year

its not like you can only select that players in the first that are projected as first rounders.. where all the good ones are gone and you go, oh well i guess i have to pick one of the other projected first rounders that sucks

if all the good "first rounders" are gone, the take the best "second round" guy, or trade down

the fact of the matters is TT has liked the guys he drafted, and quite a few of them have turned out to be complete shit or close to it

[Maxie the Taxi]

A guy becomes a 1st round talent when a team picks him in the 1st round and not before, despite what the analysts and pundits say.

Is Carl Nassib a first round talent? Ezekial Elliot? They will be if a team judges them so and picks them.

It has everything to do with judgement and, if they are picked in the 1st round, there are no guarantees regarding performance.

[pbmax]

It has everything to do with judgement and, if they are picked in the 1st round, there are no guarantees regarding performance.

It is not quite that much of a crapshoot. Not only are the odds better of getting a better player the higher you go, several other things happen.

You get reps in practice and games much earlier and have a longer term contract. As problematic as that can be for players who outperform it early, it also means a player gets a minimum of four years to demonstrate he was worth the pick. The contract can also crowd out competition at the position.

All these things add up to an increased likelihood of success.

But as you say, the first round is still 50/50 and not many have cracked to code to beat that number unless you draft in the top 15 several years in a row (49ers).

[SMBASS]

Here's something I found that's kind of interesting. Granted it's based on a small sample size, (Drafts between 2000 and 2007) and it involves players making the Pro-Bowl which can be bullshit because of players being selected based on name or team recognition.

Average number of Pro Bowl selections per year by round drafted from 2000 - 2007 (8 yrs.)

1st Rd. - 12.5 per year
2nd Rd. - 5.5 per year
3rd Rd. - 2.0 per year
4th Rd. - 2.375 per year
5th Rd. - 1.625 per year
6th Rd. - 1.5 per year
7th Rd. - 0.75 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year

[pbmax]

nm

[woodbuck27]

Here's something I found that's kind of interesting. Granted it's based on a small sample size, (Drafts between 2000 and 2007) and it involves players making the Pro-Bowl which can be bullshit because of players being selected based on name or team recognition.

Average number of Pro Bowl selections per year by round drafted from 2000 - 2007 (8 yrs.)

1st Rd. - 12.5 per year
2nd Rd. - 5.5 per year
3rd Rd. - 2.0 per year
4th Rd. - 2.375 per year
5th Rd. - 1.625 per year
6th Rd. - 1.5 per year
7th Rd. - 0.75 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year = Impressive and surprizing !

I hope the Packer Scouting Dept. is busting it's ass ....scouting.

[Upnorth]

The pro bowl is pointless for a measure of success since fans are allowed to vote now. Plus I have 12 QB's could say they were selected for the pb in 2015.

[SMBASS]

The pro bowl is pointless for a measure of success since fans are allowed to vote now. Plus I have 12 QB's could say they were selected for the pb in 2015.

Yep...absolutely agree. Not sure what the objective measuring stick for, "success" would be anymore. Hall of Fame players is far too small of a sample size and, "starts" doesn't mean much because a lot of marginal players rack up starts on pretty crappy teams.

[esoxx]

The NFL All Pro team is the measuring stick.

[Maxie the Taxi]

It is not quite that much of a crapshoot. Not only are the odds better of getting a better player the higher you go, several other things happen.

You get reps in practice and games much earlier and have a longer term contract. As problematic as that can be for players who outperform it early, it also means a player gets a minimum of four years to demonstrate he was worth the pick. The contract can also crowd out competition at the position.

All these things add up to an increased likelihood of success.

But as you say, the first round is still 50/50 and not many have cracked to code to beat that number unless you draft in the top 15 several years in a row (49ers).

All true.

I guess my point is there is really no objective criteria. It's all judgement of team GM's and such. So in that sense there is no guarantee.

[pbmax]

The NFL All Pro team is the measuring stick.

Its too restrictive. So few players get on the team that its useless for most players in the League. And its useless for most players in the draft, though you could probably use it to track success in rounds over time.

The Pro-Football-Reference AV measurement uses Pro Bowls but adds other factors. And the pick value chart I linked to earlier uses those values to tell people how valuable each pick yet.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=466

[Patler]

Here's something I found that's kind of interesting. Granted it's based on a small sample size, (Drafts between 2000 and 2007) and it involves players making the Pro-Bowl which can be bullshit because of players being selected based on name or team recognition.

Average number of Pro Bowl selections per year by round drafted from 2000 - 2007 (8 yrs.)

1st Rd. - 12.5 per year
2nd Rd. - 5.5 per year
3rd Rd. - 2.0 per year
4th Rd. - 2.375 per year
5th Rd. - 1.625 per year
6th Rd. - 1.5 per year
7th Rd. - 0.75 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year = Impressive and surprizing !

I hope the Packer Scouting Dept. is busting it's ass ....scouting.

Not real surprising about the undrafted players. Even with compensatory picks, the 3-7th rounds include an average of less than 40 players each. League wide, there might be 4-500 undrafted players each year that come to camp.

[SMBASS]

Not real surprising about the undrafted players. Even with compensatory picks, the 3-7th rounds include an average of less than 40 players each. League wide, there might be 4-500 undrafted players each year that come to camp.

You're right Patler. With the sheer number of UDFA's that are invited to camps some of them are bound to be overlooked during the 7 round draft process and then stick with a team once they put the pads on and have an opportunity to prove that they're real football players. I just think it proves that some players have attributes and intangibles that the evaluators simply can't pin down or they would have been taken during the draft by someone. I also think it shows how inexact the evaluation process is once you get past most of the obviously good players in the first couple of rounds.

[Patler]

Your right Patler. With the sheer number of UDFA's that are invited to camps some of them are bound to be overlooked during the 7 round draft process and then stick with a team once they put the pads on and have an opportunity to prove that they're real football players. I just think it proves that some players have attributes and intangibles that the evaluators simply can't pin down or they would have been taken during the draft by someone. I also think it shows how inexact the evaluation process is once you get past most of the obviously good players in the first couple of rounds.

Agreed. I've never thought there was a lot of difference between the better undrafted players, and the 6-7th round. The last few rounds are useful in making sure you get a couple that you are most interested in, perhaps at positions of greater need. With the undrafted players, you often have competition for their signature on a contract. There are hundreds of relatively similarly talented players, and it is impossible to accurately predict which will adapt, mature, develop the best once they hit the NFL.