The Vegas 2 Step

[gbgary]

bookmakers want half the betting public betting on each side so they move the spread to accomplish this. in other words 50% betting on the Pack and 50% betting on the bears. it's not a true indication of how good a team is but it's their interpretation of how they believe the public will go when they set the odds...then they move it accordingly.

There was a University study done about this very question, and while this was true in general, they found that Vegas maximized their return by means OTHER than having equal money on both sides.

I will now attempt to find the link.

i was speaking (typing) in general terms. lol

That's a damn fine explanation Gary.

thanks.

The whole point of the small spread is that both teams have anemic offenses...vegas thinks it will be a low scoring affair.

what is the over-and-under?

[KYPack]

Too elaborate a little further, the books don't make money by the bets themselves, they charge a 10% fee on all winning bets. Therefore, they don't care where the line is, just so the bettors are 50-50.

The line does not reflect what Vegas thinks will be the outcome, but what Vegas thinks the public thinks will be the outcome.

I agree it is out of whack - must be a lot of rich Packer fans with those green and gold goggles on.

It's actually 11 - 10 or roughly 9%.

It's called the vig & ya gotta pay it or some guy that looks like Mike Tice comes to your house to collect.

An old bookie taught me a valuable lesson. Let's say the Texans are made a 2 pt fav over the Steelers, with the Steelers at home (before Rberger had the medical problem). Bet on the Texans. It's called "follow the smart money" That kinda line means something is up.

I never had the balls to "follow the smart money", so I never won big.

[Packnut]

Funny

Some very nieve thinking here when it comes to vegas and the lines. There are several places online where the public money flow on bets is posted. The bears are avg about 75% of the bets yet the line has'nt moved. All that stuff about Vegas wanting even action is fairy tale crap.

The game is played on the field but this is a very curious line non-the-less.

[Guiness]

Re: Funny

Some very nieve thinking here when it comes to vegas and the lines. There are several places online where the public money flow on bets is posted. The bears are avg about 75% of the bets yet the line has'nt moved. All that stuff about Vegas wanting even action is fairy tale crap.

The game is played on the field but this is a very curious line non-the-less.

That is odd - I wonder how they determine where the public money is going? I think betting houses guard that pretty closely.

As others have mentioned above, bookmakers wants a guaranteed return, which means they want even money on each side. I can't remember how it works exactly, but essentially they collect two $10 bets (one on each side) and pay the winner $19. They keep the $1 - that's their profit.

oops - a google search found me this:

It is standard for point spread bets in most sports that you wager $110 to win $100.

[Packnut]

Re: Funny

Some very nieve thinking here when it comes to vegas and the lines. There are several places online where the public money flow on bets is posted. The bears are avg about 75% of the bets yet the line has'nt moved. All that stuff about Vegas wanting even action is fairy tale crap.

The game is played on the field but this is a very curious line non-the-less.

That is odd - I wonder how they determine where the public money is going? I think betting houses guard that pretty closely.

As others have mentioned above, bookmakers wants a guaranteed return, which means they want even money on each side. I can't remember how it works exactly, but essentially they collect two $10 bets (one on each side) and pay the winner $19. They keep the $1 - that's their profit.

There are a few online sportsbooks who post them if you have an account with them. There are also several football forums that members make picks and the percentages and line moves are listed.

[Fosco33]

what is the over-and-under?

35