Wild Card Week: They Might Be Giants

[Zool]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...170-sf49683170

Green Bay is 10-1 when allowing fewer than 30 points this season. Read that again: The Pack is 10-1 when ALLOWING FEWER THAN 30.

[pbmax]

[pbmax]

It is the inconsistent part that bothers me. Usually he is just okay. Sometimes he is a killer. I wish he were more consistently meh.

The cold playoff loss in GB he dropped pass after pass in exactly the right spot. I thought our DBs were great in that game, but the explosive pass plays were inches over the defenders' hands and inches within bounds.

I keep reading too that the Giants' running game is getting better and better.

The Packers are capable of making bad QBs look good, but Eli has not been his previous self. Even by his own middling standards, he has been terrible this year.

Fitz, their rush offense is worse than their pass offense. Passing in 21st in DVOA at Football Outsider. Rush game is 26th. Packers are 7th and 5th after being in neutral at the beginning of the season.

Pack's defense is 22nd versus pass, 14th versus run.

[vince]

The Packers are 10-1 when they hold their opponent to under 30 points.

and 0-5 when they don't.

It's a good stat but I'd say it's not relevant to this week's game.

The Giants haven't scored 30 points in a game all year, nor have they given up 30. Giants have the 2nd best scoring defense in the league and they're likely to place an even higher focus to doing everything they can to keep the ball away from Rodgers, milk clock and keep the score down.

And given the Packers defensive backfield woes, they'll likely oblige them by playing soft and try to protect against big plays. Getting a lead, stopping the run (they ran it 40 times for 161 yards last week and controlled the game from the outset) and pressuring Manning will go a long way.

This week I'm guessing the magic number is 25.

[vince]

They've found their running game with Perkins as the horse of late, which plays into their style of winning with defense. At minimum they've found a commitment to running it.

They've gone over 100 yards rushing in 6 of their last 8 games. One of their sub-100 yard games was in their win against Dallas when they ran it 33 times for 93 yards and held Dallas to 7 points. They were horrible running it in the first half of the year but that's changed.

The other game they were under 100 was against Pittsburgh who contrained them early, got out to a lead and forced them into playing catch-up. They only ran it 14 times in that game but they've committed to the run since then. Their other loss - to Philly - in which they got behind and had to play catch-up, they ran it 25 times for 118. Every other game since Pitt. they've run the ball 30+ times.

Hopefully they have limited success but I think they'll commit to running it 40 times unless the game dictates otherwise.

[pbmax]

They've found their running game with Perkins as the horse of late, which plays into their style of winning with defense. At minimum they've found a commitment to running it.

They've gone over 100 yards rushing in 6 of their last 8 games. One of their sub-100 yard games was in their win against Dallas when they ran it 33 times for 93 yards and held Dallas to 7 points. They were horrible running it in the first half of the year but that's changed.

Hopefully they have limited success but I think they'll commit to running it 40 times unless the game dictates otherwise.

That looks more like desperation than success. 2.81 yards per carry means they ran regardless of success.

In those last eight games, they were 200 for 744 and an average of 3.72. That is putrid. They are all defense.

That said, Packers D can make anyone look good if it gets away from them. A lead would be great early.

[3irty1]

14th against the run seems terrible considering how dominant we were to begin the season. Although my sniff test says we're still decent against the run when we need to be.

[vince]

I agree their offense sucks but I'd equate desperation to trying to win by taking risks not trying to exert control. As a result they try to complement their strong defense with a ball control offense.

Regardless of their average per carry it's clear they have committed to running it - particularly in the 2nd half of the season, and it has contributed to their winning forumula - Hold opponents down defensively and control the ball, with the occasional big play by OBJ mixed in.

If they're ahead they're going to run it even if it's not "working" from a ypc standpoint. Gaining over 100 yards while controlling clock and allowing their D to do it's thing has resulted in success for them.

[Fritz]

3irty1, better check your nose. Watch the mighty Zach Zenner rip holes through the middle of the line in the first half of the last game. I don't know why the Loins didn't keep doing that.

PB's right - that Packer defense can make anyone look good. And if you're keeping two safeties back to help out, you're not going to get much help from them. Ryan and Martinez are going to have to show up big, and let's pray Joe Thomas can play and be effective, too.

There's a lot of pressure on that Packer offense to get out front and keep scoring early. I just don't think it'll play out that way.

[HarveyWallbangers]

3irty1, better check your nose. Watch the mighty Zach Zenner rip holes through the middle of the line in the first half of the last game. I don't know why the Loins didn't keep doing that.

Didn't Zenner finish with 20 carries for like 69 yards... less than 3.5 yard/carry?

[vince]

For the year, the Giants rank 22nd in rushing attempts per game (24.8). In the last 4 games, the they rank 4th (32.3).

For the year, the Giants rank 29th in rushing yards per game (88.2). In the last 4 games, they rank 12th (129.7).

For the year, the Giants rank 29th in average time of possession (28.12). In the last 4 games, they are the league's best (33.24).

[vince]

Giants Defensive Rankings:

Points Allowed - 2nd (17.8)
1st Quarter Points Allowed - 25th (5.6)
2nd Quarter Points Allowed - 3rd (4.8)
3rd Quarter Points Allowed - 5th (3.1)
4th Quarter Points Allowed - 1st (4.2)

Rushing Yards Allowed - 4th (88.6)
Rushing Yards per Attempt - 2nd (3.6)

Passing Yards Allowed - 23rd (251.1)
Passing Yards per Attempt - 6th (6.4)

[Fritz]

For the year, the Giants rank 22nd in rushing attempts per game (24.8). In the last 4 games, the they rank 4th (32.3).

For the year, the Giants rank 29th in rushing yards per game (88.2). In the last 4 games, they rank 12th (129.7).

For the year, the Giants rank 29th in average time of possession (28.12). In the last 4 games, they are the league's best (33.24).

This post, and Vince's last post, should scare you. The Giants are for real.

Damn.

[vince]

They've definitely figured out how they can win.

When you look at some of those splits though, they're vulnerabilities are through the air and early in games. Those are the Packers' strengths. GB is 7th in the league in passing yards and 3rd in 1st half scoring.

If you don't get them early they've been tough to get at all with their defense and new-found ball control, so we'll see.

They've improved their scoring defense from 17.8 for the year down to 13.3 in the last 4. I'd attribute that to their offense doing a much better job of controlling the clock and reducing the number of plays opponents are able to run. In fact, they've gone from 29th ranked in Opponents Plays per Game (66.4) for the year to #1 (56.0) in the last 4 in that stat.

They've actually gotten worse in the last 4 in both rushing yards per attempt and passing yards per attempt. So it's not that their defense is more effective per play. It's that they've figured out how to hold their opponents to fewer plays and that is attributable to their running game. However effective it's been per play, they've eaten up clock and kept the ball away from opponents and it's worked. 10+ fewer plays by opponents equates to a sustained scoring drive and that's big.

I'm optimistic. They look/perform a lot like Seattle on D with less pass rush and a slightly more porous pass defense. Rodgers play of late tilts the field in this one.

[ThunderDan]

Look,at who they have played in the last few,weeks. Chicago, Det, Cle, Dallas, Phi, Wash.

Other than Dallas not a bunch of top flight teams.