"TED THOMPSONS FORMULA FOR SUCCESS SIZZLES ""

[Netmag]

Yes, we're lopsided in a bad way. I think Rodgers is better than Brady and your example kind of shows that they as a team are good with or without Brady. If we lose Rodgers, we probably wouldn't be any better than .500 and this year we probably indeed would have only had a couple of wins. This is not good by any means, but as long as Rodgers is there, we have an opportunity and responsibility to try to get to the big game every year just like the Patriots. Because of Rodgers, the rest of team doesn't have to be equally as good as the Patsies, but we've got to be more competent in other areas than we are now. The fact that we almost made it to the Superbowl with that level of inconsistency in other phases of the game just shows how great Rodgers must be. Not good to be so lopsided but we still have to try to increase our odds (even if it relies on 1 guy too much).

ok so then the rest of the roster is good for one or two wins.

Factor it this way if Rodgers blew his knee out ala Teddy Bridgewater how many games would the Packer have won? With the current roster and how the season broke with injuries and factoring the impact of Rodgers during games I would say the Packers would have won two games at the most.

Take the Patriots that went 3-1 when Brady was suspended. They shuffled three different QBs during that time due to injury. The Packers simply do not have a roster of guys especially on defense that will allow them to compete for World Championships.

[vince]

I think that overall the draft strategy works well as long as you have great players in key positions as a base. We've been lucky enough to have that at the most key position for quite some time. The rest is about putting together the other pieces effectively and staying healthy at the right time. This year was a good finish, but we just didn't have enough pieces in place at the right time (especially on D).

In order not to squander our special situation at QB, we need to put the odds in our favor a little bit more. Like the Patriots, you do that by filling some deficiencies with proven assets in certain areas. You can still get most through the draft, but you can't just hope and wish for every single one of those rookies to hit it big in order to close the deal on the Superbowl. I think they're 90% fine with what they're doing now, but they need to be just a little bit more aggressive at filling in the deficiencies with some proven assets.
No, it still won't guarantee anything 100% (there could be key injuries, etc) but what we'd be doing is maximizing the odds. I want to see TT at least attempt to maximize our odds so that we don't just let Rodgers fade with no support like we did Favre. I don't want to just sit and be happy with Rodgers' circus-like weekly heroics and a guaranteed .500 + whatever else we happen to get.

Good post Net.

Ted, Mike and Dom need to fix the pass defense one way or another - and continue the elite production offensively. I think that demands re-signing Cook and signing a corner that can hold up on his own on one side to allow Capers to get more aggressive. Then add another wave of young talent through the draft that is deep in some important spots for Green Bay -and I'd say this year has shown they should be as talented as anyone in the league next year.

It's entirely possible though, that most of the guys that are now the top corners projected to hit FA, resign with their current teams before hitting the market, and the demand for what remains drives some teams to spend stupid money on flawed players. Ted can't afford to do that and I don't think he will.

We all probably would feel uncomfortable if that shutdown corner we need immediately has to come from the college ranks, but it does happen every year. I'll take the next Marcus Peters or Jalen Ramsey all day long and twice on Sunday. The challenge there is Ted's obviously not picking in the Top 10, but there should be no excuses. If they can't defend the pass next year, that'll be on Ted no matter. CB is a deep position this year, as is OLB so he needs to hit on someone who can deliver immediately, regardless of whether it's FA or in the Draft I don't really care how he does it. That's up to Ted.

[Fritz]

Good post Net.

Ted, Mike and Dom need to fix the pass defense one way or another - and continue the elite production offensively. I think that demands re-signing Cook and signing a corner that can hold up on his own on one side to allow Capers to get more aggressive. Then add another wave of young talent through the draft that is deep in some important spots for Green Bay -and I'd say this year has shown they should be as talented as anyone in the league next year.

It's entirely possible though, that most of the guys that are now the top corners projected to hit FA, resign with their current teams before hitting the market, and the demand for what remains drives some teams to spend stupid money on flawed players. Ted can't afford to do that and I don't think he will.

We all probably would feel uncomfortable if that shutdown corner we need immediately has to come from the college ranks, but it does happen every year. I'll take the next Marcus Peters or Jalen Ramsey all day long and twice on Sunday. It is a deep position this year, as is OLB.

They just need to fritz that shit up.

[vince]

You lost your fritzin' mojo on the NFCC so I'm not sure I really know what that means anymore...

Is it reverse, double reverse, super-sarcastic straight up or what?

[Zool]

I'm for a new direction on defense but I'll also say this. I don't know shit. You have to know what the problem is, and it's not "the defense sucks for some reason so let's fire the coach." That type of reactionary behavior is why so many teams cycle through new coaching staffs every couple years and get nowhere for long periods of time.

He may be wrong about it, but my sense is that McCarthy believes he understands the problem (not Capers), and what needs to happen to fix it. The fact that the defensive performance has been so inconsistent is troubling, but the fact that they've been good in between being bad, and when they've been bad, it's always been a different issue suggests the problems have been moving targets. They're effective in one area and poor in another. They successfully address the area needing improvement and have a good year - then another thing pops up the next. Personnel, injuries, overcompensating, scheme, and a whole host of issues can cause problems. The fact that it's different things at different times probably suggests that Capers ISN'T the issue.

It's always convenient to scapegoat the Coordinator, as countless assistants know all to well, and if Capers is the problem then let's solve it, but they need to know what's going on and take action to address the problem, not cycle through coaches because something's not right and hoping the new guy does better.

Well in any organization, sports or otherwise, there's accountability for performance. A year or 2 of poor performance in one area is one thing. 6 consecutive is another. One department at this org is doing really well for nearly a decade. The other has been shit on ice for 6 years without any changes other than the boots on the ground people. Eventually you don't have an employee issue, you have a management issue.

It has been said very often that Capers' scheme works better with vets. Thompson wants to draft and develop. That doesn't mesh. After some nearly historically bad defenses in the last 3-4 years, it's time to make a change somewhere. If you advise against holding the DC accountable, who's next in line. They keep turning over players and the results are the same.

[pbmax]

I would not be in favor of a CB or else strategy this offseason. I want one, but I would not demand this answer be found this year. That's how the Redskins and other dumb teams operate. I don't want the best CB in the FA class if the guy is a welcome mat. Took awhile and several drafts to find Collins replacement, gonna take some time to find Shields successor.

The fact is that outside of the Top 10 in the draft (and not always then either) you are not guaranteed to get that guy. And FA is very much dependent on who teams let go. The best candidates will likely be resigned. You have to be Jeff Fisher stupid to let the Jared Cook equivalent of a CB go without resigning him. It could happen. But likely won't.

Absent a savior, you need to improve the position. Get better depth so whatever scheme you choose can be supported through the inevitable injuries. If you can get a League marginal starter (which would represent an improvement compared to this year) for a reasonable dollar you do it. Even if he gets surpassed by Randall or Rollins, you are in a better position.

So I guess I am arguing to sign either healthy Peanut Tillman or suddenly cut-malcontent-future safety Darrell Revis. Seriously though, get a guy you can count on for a year or two.

[pbmax]

It has been said very often that Capers' scheme works better with vets. Thompson wants to draft and develop. That doesn't mesh. After some nearly historically bad defenses in the last 3-4 years, it's time to make a change somewhere. If you advise against holding the DC accountable, who's next in line. They keep turning over players and the results are the same.

The playoff catastrophe's are particularly galling. Which points to him holding this thing together with tape and bailing wire at times.

However, a healthy defense was a better performer in 2014 and 2015 playoffs than the offense. So I think its salvageable.

[pbmax]

When the Packers had their best tandem at cornerback under Thompson they were Woodson and Williams. Williams was signed as a non drafted rookie, and Woodson was Thompson's greatest free agent signing. Sam Shields later developed into a starting cornerback, he was an undrafted rookie. Randall, Rollins, and Hyde were all drafted by Thompson and Hyde has never played as a conventional cornerback. Randall was hybrid safety/corner in a college scheme that relied heavily on man to man coverage. Rollins had only one year of college football. Casey Hayward was a corner in college but had questionable top end speed and played inside. He was left to free agency because of hamstring injuries and the drafting of Rollins, and Randall. The fault in all of this was not recognizing that top end speed and the ability to turn hips and run with a receiver on the outside is a very particular skill set. He hasn't yet drafted a guy suited to play on the outside receiver. Maybe Thompson and his staff struggle to identify these qualities in potential draft picks, but then can see it when they are non drafted free agents? I don't get it.

Don't forget House, who was a prototypical outside CB.

And Randall gets shorted a bit here. He clearly has the physical tools to play outside. Enough speed and fluid, with an eye for the ball. But he is not reliable at this point and he couldn't manage to function in a zone that should have helped his health issues at the end of the year.

[Zool]

The playoff catastrophe's are particularly galling. Which points to him holding this thing together with tape and bailing wire at times.

However, a healthy defense was a better performer in 2014 and 2015 playoffs than the offense. So I think its salvageable.

Defense rankings
2016 - 22nd total, 31st pass, 8th rush, 21st for points
2015 - 15th total, 6th pass, 21st rush, 12th points
2014 - 15th total, 10th pass, 23rd rush, 13th points
2013 - 25th total, 24th pass, 25th rush, 24th points
2012 - 11th total, 11th pass, 17th rush, 11th points
2011 - 32nd total, 32nd pass, 14th rush, 19th points
2010 - 5th total, 5th pass, 18th rush, 2nd points

'14 and '15 weren't dumpster fires, but they were average at best. In a results based business, the only real thing a customer can do is vote with their wallet.

[pbmax]

Defense rankings
2016 - 22nd total, 31st pass, 8th rush, 21st for points
2015 - 15th total, 6th pass, 21st rush, 12th points
2014 - 15th total, 10th pass, 23rd rush, 13th points
2013 - 25th total, 24th pass, 25th rush, 24th points
2012 - 11th total, 11th pass, 17th rush, 11th points
2011 - 32nd total, 32nd pass, 14th rush, 19th points
2010 - 5th total, 5th pass, 18th rush, 2nd points

'14 and '15 weren't dumpster fires, but they were average at best. In a results based business, the only real thing a customer can do is vote with their wallet.

Well, I won't buy anything he endorses, but if he could guarantee 15th total and slightly better in points, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

[3irty1]

There is nothing wrong with Ted's recipe. The draft is the ONLY measure for bucking the NFL's parity measures and improving an already good team. Any opportunities found via free agency or trade are icing on the cake. But you can't have NFL success without NFL draft success, especially if you're already good. That said Ted doesn't whip up a batch of Ted's recipe like he used to. There is little room for error or bad luck if you want to win the big one.

[vince]

Well in any organization, sports or otherwise, there's accountability for performance. A year or 2 of poor performance in one area is one thing. 6 consecutive is another. One department at this org is doing really well for nearly a decade. The other has been shit on ice for 6 years without any changes other than the boots on the ground people. Eventually you don't have an employee issue, you have a management issue.

It has been said very often that Capers' scheme works better with vets. Thompson wants to draft and develop. That doesn't mesh. After some nearly historically bad defenses in the last 3-4 years, it's time to make a change somewhere. If you advise against holding the DC accountable, who's next in line. They keep turning over players and the results are the same.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying Zool but I'm not sure the quick fix response of firing the DC will fix the real issues. It's easy to characterize the defense as "shit on ice for 6 years" but that suggests there's been a consistent, ongoing problem that can be solved with a silver bullet to Capers head, but that's just not accurate. They've been good and bad, and the bad has come from different areas. It's not one problem caused by one person. Capers needs to be accountable for what he's responsible for, but so do McCarthy, Thompson, certain players, possibly training staff and others.

Firing Capers could indicate that McCarthy and Thompson aren't holding themselves properly accountable for their share of the real issues that need to be addressed that are outside of Capers' limited sphere of control. Throwing him under the bus (if that were to be the case) would allow them to project a public image of taking action and "demanding results" - but if they don't understand the real issues, or aren't willing to make the changes to deal with them effectively, they're only kicking the can down the road hoping the real problems will either magically go away or they'll be gone by the time they resurface and someone else will get deal with them later.

So not firing Capers likely suggests that, rather than being unwilling to hold people accountable, they're not interested in political smoke and mirrors - but rather that they believe they understand the real problems have a lot of different causes - and they're committed to placing accountability where it truly belongs, including on themselves - to drive the improvements needed for real results. What's more, holding someone (everyone) accountable doesn't necessarily mean firing them is the answer to improvement. They may well still be an important part of the improvement process. In the end it's about doing what it takes to get results, not throwing guys out on the tarmac to show action.

I'm not saying you're wrong because I'm not convinced of all this bullshit myself. Capers is the longest tenured DC in the league. It does feel stale. I'm just saying I have doubts that scapegoating the DC will deliver the results we want. It's not that easy, and starting over introduces a whole new pile of shit on top of the load you may have just covered up.

[Zool]

Yeah I agree that Capers could very well not be the problem, but there's a pretty consistent issue now. It's been repeated for long enough for it to be a trend not an aberration. In my limited knowledge of the behind the scenes at Lombardi Ave, it looks like the DC can occasionally draw up a game plan but not consistently. It could be that the players are not good enough to execute some of his plans but that falls on Thompson. Also we have Capers' track record of starting hot and tapering off with every job he's had in the NFL for the last couple decades.

In my mind, the signs point towards Capers, but who can say. I do get sick of 400 yard passing days against the Packers though.

[pbmax]

Yeah I agree that Capers could very well not be the problem, but there's a pretty consistent issue now. It's been repeated for long enough for it to be a trend not an aberration. In my limited knowledge of the behind the scenes at Lombardi Ave, it looks like the DC can occasionally draw up a game plan but not consistently. It could be that the players are not good enough to execute some of his plans but that falls on Thompson. Also we have Capers' track record of starting hot and tapering off with every job he's had in the NFL for the last couple decades.

In my mind, the signs point towards Capers, but who can say. I do get sick of 400 yard passing days against the Packers though.

The repeatable pattern would seem to be that depth (or lack thereof) cannot execute the same gameplans as starters.

IF heathy, the unit can function. if backups are in key roles, it struggles. And it doesn't struggle in a 24-30 points surrendered way. Its struggles to hold them under 35 points.

[bobblehead]

It is a proven fact that the Packers will always be in contention as long as Aaron Rodgers is around and Healthy, same as Tom Brady. The Packers front office is the issue, not the coaching. .

I dispute this based on what I said in my own thread. TT has sprung off Dorsey, Schneider, and McKenzie. MM has sprung off a pile of shit. TT won a super bowl with Seattle basically acting as GM. MM never won shit anywhere before GB.

I think the issue is much more coaching than it is with the office. I also think the injury riddle needs to be solved. I believe its a testament to both MM and TT that they can lose so many players and make both a NFCC and superbowl.